It has been three years since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was fought today, and during these three years, Zelensky has always adhered to a tough attitude of not surrendering and not negotiating peace, until yesterday.
Yesterday, Zelensky said in an interview that peace talks are acceptable, and this shift will inevitably bring completely different changes to the direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Why is Zelensky holding peace talks? How to negotiate peace? What are the prospects for peace talks?
Why is Zelensky holding peace talks?
The fundamental reason for Zelensky's peace talks is that Ukraine can't move.
Since the dismissal of the former Ukrainian commander-in-chief, Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian side has been on the defensive.
Although the Ukrainian side gave 35,000 soldiers killed, the actual death toll exceeded 400,000, and with the addition of those who fled Ukraine and soldiers who refused to serve in the military, Ukraine's war potential has basically been exhausted.
NATO's support is also not strong, although Europe has given 40 billion euros in aid and the United States has given 60 billion in aid, but these funds are not in place at the same time, but divided into several years for Ukraine to use for war and post-war reconstruction.
In 2024, Ukraine will be able to receive no more than $3 billion in aid, and now Ukraine needs at least $200 million a day to maintain the front, which is obviously far from enough.
Politically, Zelensky was not elected, but was re-elected using wartime privileges, which makes his legitimacy as president questionable, and the stability of the domestic political situation is also questionable.
Under the internal and external difficulties, Zelensky's pressure has obviously reached a point where he can not bear it, so there is a shout for this peace talks.
How to negotiate peace?
In an interview, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he could use the model of the previous Black Sea grain agreement to negotiate with Russia, that is, Ukraine does not negotiate directly with Russia, but negotiates with the United Nations and Turkey to sign a tripartite agreement, and the United Nations Turkey negotiates and signs the agreement on the Russian side.
This pattern of negotiations has also appeared in previous negotiations between Israel and Hamas, but Qatar, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates acted as third parties at that time, and as you can see, Israel's military operation in Gaza has not stopped.
What are the prospects for a peace agreement?
According to the information revealed by the Russian side, the content of the agreement Zelensky hopes to reach this time is similar to the content of the 2022 agreement, that is, Russia's withdrawal from the eastern part of Ukraine and the Crimea region, the punishment of all war criminals and war reparations.
In 2022, there may be a way to reach this agreement, but now that the form of the battlefield is completely different, Russia is in an advantageous position on the battlefield, and Ukraine is in a disadvantageous position, and there is no way to negotiate this agreement at all.
In addition, it should also be noted that Zelensky said in an interview that "at present, in the areas where the fighting on the front line is most intense, especially in the Kharkiv and Donetsk directions, the ratio of battle losses between the Ukrainian army and the Russian army is 1 to 6, and the losses of the Russian army are much greater." ”
What Zelensky said is not necessarily a lie, but his perception is absolutely wrong. According to his perception, Russia should have collapsed many times, but this is not the case.
In this way, there is still no hope for this peace talks, and the premise of the peace talks is that both sides must accurately understand the real situation of both sides, and Zelensky obviously does not realize how disadvantageous his situation is.
Finally, let's end with one sentence.
What you can't get on the battlefield, you can't get at the negotiating table, Zelensky clearly doesn't realize it.