According to Taiwan media reports, Modi originally planned to go to Astana on July 3 to attend the SCO summit, and has sent an advance liaison team to Kazakhstan to prepare for work, but recently the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs suddenly announced that Modi will be absent from the summit and will be led by Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar instead. It is worth mentioning that in June, just after Modi completed his re-election, he rushed to Italy to participate in the G7 summit led by the United States.
SCO
It stands to reason that Modi should have paid more attention to domestic affairs when he was re-elected, but even so, he took the time to attend the G7 summit. Now it's the turn of the SCO summit, but Modi is suddenly absent. At present, there are four main theories from the outside world. The first possibility is scheduling issues. Indian media claimed that the SCO summit overlapped with the Indian parliament's meeting time, and the schedule conflicted. But this argument is clearly not convincing, the Indian parliament meets about three times a year, the time is relatively certain, and according to media reports, Modi originally planned to participate, but changed his mind on the fly. This kind of impromptu motivation is unlikely to be a scheduling issue.
The second possibility is to deliberately distance itself from Russia, but this is also unlikely. Although India is under tremendous pressure from the United States and the West because of the Russia-Ukraine issue, in order to seek balance, it may make some moves and deliberately keep its distance from Russia. However, earlier Indian media reported that Modi will visit Russia on July 8, and Russian officials have also confirmed the news of Modi's upcoming visit. It stands to reason that it is necessary to keep a distance and use the sidelines of the SCO summit to engage in bilateral dialogue with Russia, which is obviously more low-key. A swaggering visit is more formal and more likely to attract the attention of the international community, so deliberately distancing himself from Russia is unlikely to be the reason for Modi's absence from the summit.
Modi and Putin
The third possibility, which is not to deal with Kazakhstan, the host country, does not exist. According to Indian media reports, Modi also made a special phone call to Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, explaining that he would be absent from the summit, expressing support for the summit, and reiterating that he would continue to promote strategic cooperation between the two countries.
The last possibility is related to China. Indian media directly pointed out in the report that Modi's absence is directly related to the tension between China and India. In fact, this can be seen from the BRICS Foreign Ministers' Meeting and the SCO Defense Ministers' Meeting earlier. Judging from the official report, during this year's SCO Defense Ministers' Meeting, mainland Defense Minister Dong Jun held talks with the defense ministers of other member countries, but India was the only one. The Indian Defence Minister was also absent and was replaced by a senior defence official of a lower rank.
Sino-Indian relations
During this year's BRICS Foreign Ministers' Meeting, India is in the midst of elections, and the Indian Foreign Minister has not officially confirmed his stay in office, so he only sent representatives to attend. Foreign Minister Wang Yi held formal talks with most of the member states, except for the Indian representatives, who had only a brief exchange during the event. Therefore, it is not difficult to see that although China and India are both BRICS and SCO members, there is relatively little interaction within this framework. In addition, India was not absent, but on both occasions sent officials of unequal rank to attend the meeting. In addition to special reasons such as scheduling, this is also related to India's lack of sufficient attention to BRICS and the SCO.
China-India relations have already been at a stalemate due to the border issue, coupled with the United States' efforts to draw India into the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" to contain China, and India's domestic political situation has undergone subtle changes. In the past, India's position on Taiwan-related and South China Sea issues was relatively neutral, and it basically did not intervene or express its position. However, Modi has not only interacted with Lai Qingde on social platforms recently, but also after the outbreak of friction at Ren'ai Jiao, India's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has recently expressed its support for the Philippines and support "international arbitration". All kinds of indications show that Sino-Indian relations are facing an increasingly severe test.
Morty
However, no matter how India stirs up the situation, the development of the two multilateral cooperation platforms of the SCO summit and the BRICS countries is very important for China. A few days ago, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that the top leader of the mainland will attend this year's SCO summit, and it will be China's turn to assume the rotating presidency next year. As the mainstay, China will shoulder the important task of developing the SCO, improve the cooperation mechanism of the SCO, strengthen exchanges and cooperation among the member states, and continue to make important contributions to regional stability. As for India, whether the Modi government actively participates or not, it will not stop the SCO's development for the better.