Previously, when the war between Russia and Ukraine was inextricably linked, Trump had claimed that if he was re-elected president, he would end the war within 24 hours, but he did not say how to do so.
On the 25th, Reuters released "exclusive information" saying that Fred Fleitz, the former chief of staff of the National Security Council, two key advisers to former US Republican former President Trump, and Keith Kellogg, one of the national security advisers, proposed a plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which received positive feedback from Trump. Can the Trump team reverse the escalating and world-renowned Russia-Ukraine war?
People, who are not in office, say just groundless, and there is no trace. But it cannot be ignored that Trump has the possibility of re-entering the White House. If he can really return to being the head of state, given that his perception, planning and decision-making of the Russia-Ukraine war are very different from that of the current President Biden, we need to seriously evaluate and treat the latest proposal of the Trump team.
1. It is not difficult to press the "two gourds".
According to Reuters, two advisers to Trump's team believe that it is important for Russia and Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table quickly, and they made this specific move: "We told the Ukrainians that they must sit at the negotiating table, otherwise the support of the United States will dry up" and "Tell Russia that they must sit at the negotiating table, otherwise we will give the Ukrainians everything they need."
Such a move is almost a draw from the bottom of the kettle for Ukraine. The United States is the "big boss" of Ukraine, Ukraine is only its "agent", the "big boss" is about to withdraw from the stall, and the "little minions" have no choice but to wash their hands. Zelensky admitted early on that without the support of the United States, Ukraine would not be able to sustain its war with Russia at all.
For Russia, getting out of the predicament is right in the middle of the game. At the beginning of this year, the Russian army reported frequent successes, taking advantage of the victory to pursue, and it was about to take Kharkiv, the second largest town in Ukraine, which is of great significance to the war. The $60 billion U.S. aid fund for Ukraine has finally been determined, and 15 U.S. and Western countries have signed a security cooperation agreement with Ukraine, and recently clearly agreed that Ukraine will use the weapons they aid to attack military targets in Russia, and they have succeeded again and again, and Russia is in trouble day by day. In the face of Trump's adviser's proposal, Russia quickly said on the 26th that "Russia has always been and will continue to be open to negotiations."
Second, it is not easy to press down the "three floating scoops".
The war between Russia and Ukraine is due to its deep history and a variety of practical factors. At present, the operational goals of Russia and Ukraine are still far apart and sharply opposed. The two countries have been at war for nearly two and a half years (856 days), and both sides have suffered heavy losses, so it is not difficult to sit down and negotiate, and it is difficult to resolve the contradictions and struggles that have accumulated for many years.
Ukraine, as the "first scoop", with the support of the United States and Western countries, is determined to recover all of its territory, including Crimea, and to win a complete victory. After two and a half years of war between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian side has sensed great resistance and has obviously adjusted the established maximum goal, and Putin has repeatedly emphasized that "negotiations should focus on the reality of the battlefield". What is the reality? The reality is that the Russian army has taken control of the four regions of Crimea and eastern Ukraine, and Russia must not lose it, which may be Russia's lowest goal.
Even so, Ukraine's response to the latest proposal from the Trump team is that Podolyak, an adviser to the president's office, said, "President Zelenskyy's 'peace plan' emphasizes that peace can only be fair, and peace can only be built on the basis of international law." "The operation launched by Russia against Ukraine "violates international law", and it would be "strange" to stop the current combat operations on the front line. The implication is that Ukraine is currently turning from defense to offense, constantly gaining momentum, and it hopes to continue to fight!
Russia, as the "second scoop", its initial strategic goal was to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, not to join NATO, and to remain neutral forever. According to Russia's expectations, it won a complete victory. Before the United States has not determined the $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, coupled with the serious shortage of ammunition and personnel on the battlefield, it once lowered the negotiation standards, claiming that the ownership of Crimea can be disregarded.
Now, with the strong support of the United States and Western countries, Ukraine has become tougher, and recently claimed that it will recover all its territory, including Crimea, severely punish war criminals, and Russia must compensate Ukraine for its war losses. This will not be allowed to be a "fighting nation" that claims to be the world's second largest military power.
As the "third scoop," in the vast majority of cases, the EU is the only one that follows the United States, follows in the footsteps of the United States, and closely follows suit. Regarding the war between Russia and Ukraine, if the United States is the "big boss" of Ukraine, the EU countries are the "second boss" of Ukraine. However, on the issue of judging the "Russian threat", because EU countries are closer to Russia, it takes it more seriously than the United States, believing that the defeat of Ukraine in the Russian-Ukrainian war will be a disaster for EU countries.
Since the second half of last year, EU countries have begun to prepare, once Trump comes to power to counterattack Biden's policy of full support for Ukraine, it will carry the banner of aid to Ukraine, push the war to the end, and then take all possible measures to sign a security cooperation agreement with Ukraine, aid funds, weapons, ammunition and even personnel in place one after another. Reuters reported on the 26th that the Trump team's proposal may indicate "a major shift in the U.S. stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and may face opposition from its European allies and members of Trump's Republican Party."
As the saying goes, freezing three feet is not a day's cold, and in connection with the current situation of the Russia-Ukraine war, three feet of ice is not a day's warmth. Trump once bragged that once he regained control of the United States, he would end the Russian-Ukrainian war in 24 hours, and let practice (actual combat) test him!
Third, how do we in China face it?
First, the proposal is welcome. In the nearly two-and-a-half-year war, hundreds of thousands of people have been killed and injured in Russia and Ukraine, and the war is likely to spread. The mainland has always advocated persuasion and peace talks, and the Paris Olympics will soon begin, and the mainland has proposed a truce for all conflicts during the Olympic Games. It can be said that the Trump team's proposal has a certain positive energy.
The second is to observe their follow-ups. The Trump team almost used coercion and threats to get Russia and Ukraine to sit together and negotiate, this is only the first step, what will it do in the second step? Is it to "level out a bowl of water", find the greatest common divisor, and adopt methods acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine to effectively resolve the contradictions and conflicts between the two sides? Or is it for the sake of selfish interests, favoring one side and suppressing one side? This is an important breakthrough in our assessment of the overall strategy of the United States if he is in power again.