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Imagine that you invest in a big project, and it costs up to 50 billion to build. Finally, the project was opened to traffic, with 7,000 traffic trips on the first day of operation. Of course, some of them are here to join in the fun. However, if we calculate according to this data, it is 10 million in a day, 3 billion in a month, and 36 billion in a year. Even taking into account the operation and maintenance costs, the project will take 20 years to pay for itself at the earliest.
However, is this algorithm really accurate? The truth may not be so rosy. We can refer to the data of the Humen Bridge. The Humen Bridge was designed to run 80,000 vehicles per day, and now it sometimes exceeds 200,000 during peak hours, but on average, it only travels about 6,000 times per hour. The annual traffic flow is about 4,000 times per hour, and the annual income is only about 1 billion.
So, how much time will it take for the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor to recover its costs? This is a thought-provoking question.
The Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor, a transportation project connecting the two major cities of Shenzhen and Zhongshan, has a total investment of 50 billion yuan. On the first day of operation, there were 7,000 trips, and although some of them came to join in the fun, this figure is still surprising. So, how long will it take for this project to pay off?
We know that the payback time of a project depends on its revenue and costs. Based on the data on the first day of the opening of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor, we can estimate its annual income. It's 10 million a day, 300 million a month, and 36 billion a year. However, this estimate is not accurate, because the traffic volume on the first day of traffic has attracted a lot of attention, and they may be here to try it, and there may not be so much traffic in normal times.
We can refer to the data of the Humen Bridge. The Humen Bridge was designed to run 80,000 vehicles per day, and now it sometimes exceeds 200,000 during peak hours, but on average, it only travels about 6,000 times per hour. The annual traffic flow is about 4,000 times per hour, and the annual income is only about 1 billion.
Based on the above data, we can see that the revenue of the Shenzhong Channel may not be as high as we think. So, how many years will it take to pay off? This is a complex issue that requires many factors to consider, such as changes in traffic flow, O&M costs, and so on.
We can make a simple estimate. If the annual income of the Shenzhong Channel is only 1 billion, then it will take 50 years to pay off. This number may be shocking, but that's the reality. The payback period for a major traffic project is often long, which is something we need to accept.
Of course, this estimate is very rough and the actual situation may vary. However, we can see from this estimate that it will take a long time for the Shenzhong Channel to recoup its original cost. It also reminds us that for a project like this, we can't just look at its short-term benefits, but also consider its long-term returns.
In general, the payback time of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor depends on many factors, such as changes in traffic flow, operation and maintenance costs, and so on. Although we cannot accurately predict the payback time, we can draw some enlightenment from this estimate, that is, for large-scale transportation projects, we need to have a long-term vision, not just see the immediate benefits.