The French National Assembly election is changing, and the far-right party National Alliance has emerged as the largest opposition party. Macron is facing a crisis, and Bardeira may compete with him, causing heated discussions at home and abroad. Want to know how the crisis of Macron's administration is highlighted, and whether Bardeira can be elected prime minister? Read on!
The far-right party could become the largest opposition party in France
This year's French National Assembly election can be described as a change, originally regarded as a new star in the political arena left-wing candidate Pillot, because of improper remarks on the eve of the election was forced to announce the withdrawal of the election, the original second-ranked candidate withdrew, most of his supporters voted for the third-ranked "New Popular Front", and the current frontrunner National Alliance is a representative of the far-right candidate, which won 33% of the vote, has become the party's best result in the history of the National Assembly election.
According to the French electoral system, the top three candidates will advance to the second round of voting to determine the winner, so the focus on the Paris scene has shifted from "whether the National Alliance will make it to the second round" to "is Bardeira likely to be elected prime minister".
Bardeira's controversial experience is that he came from a working-class background, joined the National League at the age of 16, became president of the party for a few years, and then served as a member of the European Parliament.
The rise of the National Alliance is largely due to Macron's missteps in government, which saw his approval ratings fall to rock bottom during the pandemic, and although it has picked up with the vaccination rollout, it has not had much impact on the overall situation of the election.
At the same time, Macron's ruling party's surprise victory was also a temporary cramming, which temporarily adjusted its tactics, abandoned other issues, and went all out to attack Bardeira's past statements and views, in an attempt to arouse voters' vigilance against Nazism.
But the consequences of this are clear, most likely a drop in support, as these statements are already a cliché, and the supporters of the National Alliance will not care about them, while swing voters are more likely to switch to the "New Popular Front" because of their anxieties about Macron.
The leader of this alliance, Melanjo, has also risen one of the fastest, she has not yet entered the field of public opinion, and after Pilo withdrew from the election, her approval rating has risen steadily, and she has surpassed Macron by a large margin.
This is undoubtedly a very big blow to Macron, who originally wanted to dominate Paris, and if his hopes of re-election are already slim, then he must at least ensure that his Baath Party can have a voice in the National Assembly.
So even if the Baath Party is in fourth place, it is unlikely that Macron himself will openly support the "New Popular Front", and in any case, all efforts before the second round of voting will be to preserve his position in the centrist coalition.
Because only by ensuring the overall strength of the centrist coalition will the Baath Party be able to exert greater influence in the coalition, and if it is forced to take a back seat, even if the "New Popular Front" eventually becomes the largest force on the stage, it will not repeat the mistakes of the past.
Bardeira may share the stage with Macron
There is a lot of discussion about Bardeira's possible election as prime minister, both inside and outside France.
If he can win in the second round of voting, then the far-right party could become the largest opposition party in the French National Assembly, and it is very likely that it will form a cabinet, which is undoubtedly a very big challenge for France, which has almost no experience in governance.
France's allies are also keeping a close eye on the election, and if Bardeira comes to power, he and Macron may become "old partners" in various international conferences, from the G7 to the G20 to the United Nations General Assembly.
The closeness of the relationship between France and the United States also depends in part on the personal rapport of the two leaders, which cooled during the Trump era.
Although Macron has always stressed the need to maintain the necessary strategic independence from the United States, friction between the two sides in multilateral talks still occurs from time to time.
If the next French prime minister is a thoroughly anti-American guy, then the relationship between the two countries may fall to a freezing point again, which is undoubtedly a very passive situation for the United States at the moment.
More importantly, at a time when globalization is accelerating, there is an increasing need for consensus and cooperation among countries, and these issues cannot be resolved without even the most basic communication.
From this point of view, although Bardeira's coming to power will be very embarrassing and headache for Macron, it still has a lot of positive significance for France as a whole.
Because Macron's impossibility of re-election has undoubtedly become an ironclad fact, no matter who the next prime minister is, he must adapt to and familiarize himself with the laws of international affairs as soon as possible.
If Bardeira can do a better job in this regard, and even give France a head start on some important occasions, then this will undoubtedly be a boost to France's diplomatic strength and overall image.
Macron's crisis in power is highlighted
But for these ideas to become a reality, Bardeira must win a second round of voting.
As things stand, although the National Alliance leads with 33 per cent of the vote, it is still very difficult to get more than 50 per cent of the vote.
After all, the second-place "New Popular Front" has already chased 26%, and the supporters of other candidates are more inclined to the left-wing camp, the upward momentum of the "New Popular Front" is worrying.
In accordance with the French electoral system and regulations, the second round of voting will be held on 26 June, and the winner will be announced by the "New Popular Front" and the National Alliance by 7 July.
If Macron's ruling party is now not only suffering repeated setbacks in the parliamentary elections, it will also be dismal in the polls of public opinion.
According to a survey by Le Figaro, more than 70 percent of respondents believe that Macron should have given up his support for Pilo on the eve of the election and publicly apologized to voters.
Although this survey is not of reference value, it at least shows the dissatisfaction and disappointment of voters with Macron's current performance.
Much of this frustration stems from his mishandling of state affairs, which Macron was criticized for taking lightly in the early days of the pandemic.
He then changed his course frequently, announcing and lifting epidemic prevention measures several times in just a few months, and this vacillating performance made people very speechless.
What's more, outside of the epidemic, the "yellow vest" movement and various social problems have not been fundamentally resolved, and in this case, even the rising Mei Lanzhu can become his biggest rival for re-election.
epilogue
The election of the French National Assembly is fierce, and the crisis of Macron's administration is becoming more and more prominent. Bardeira may compete with Macron on the same stage, causing a lot of discussion at home and abroad. Who do you think will come out on top in this competition?