Edited by: Bi Luming
According to Xinhua News Agency on July 1, France held the first round of voting in the National Assembly election on June 30, and the main exit polls released that night showed that the far-right party National Alliance was in a large lead, winning about 34% of the vote; In second place went to the newly formed left-wing coalition "New Popular Front", with about 29% of the vote; The centrist ruling coalition led by President Emmanuel Macron's "Ba'ath Party" came together with more than 20 percent of the vote and was pushed into third place.
Image source: Video screenshot
According to the procedure, candidates who receive more than half of the votes in their constituencies in the first round of voting are directly elected; If there is no majority, the top two candidates with the highest percentage of votes and at least 12.5% of the votes will automatically enter the second round, and the candidate with the highest number of votes will be elected, which will be determined on July 7. In the week leading up to the "tiebreaker", there will be a final arrangement and exchange of interests between the forces of each side, and there are still uncertainties as to who will ally with whom and how many seats each will occupy.
What does the result of the first round of the French National Assembly election mean for French politics? What does the future hold for French politics? What will be the implications for the future of Europe as a whole?
What does the end of the first round of voting mean?
According to CCTV News, Cui Hongjian, a professor at the Institute for Advanced Study of Regional and Global Governance at Beijing University of Foreign Chinese, said that the results of the first round of the French National Assembly election announced on the 1st, Beijing time, were basically the same as those shown in previous polls. We see that this result will bring at least three impacts and influences to the French political arena, the first is that the far-right forces in France have carried out some reforms on their own, especially in the current context of European politics, they have gradually gained a relatively solid foundation of public opinion, and have gradually entered the center of the French political stage.
Cui Hongjian: At the same time, we are seeing further divisions and combinations between the various parties, and the performance of the left-wing coalition this time is also remarkable. Therefore, it is likely that a new pattern of confrontation between the left and right camps will be formed in French politics; Second, it is likely to have a direct impact on the composition of the French government, especially whether a new left-wing bloc will emerge in France in the future. There is still a week to go before the first round of voting and the second round, during which the French political parties may have a new round of dividing forces. Then, although the National Alliance is now ahead in the first round of voting, it will not be able to ensure a final victory in the second round of voting. Now it seems that the likelihood of a so-called minority government, or a multi-party coalition, is rising. Such a situation may pose a realistic challenge to how President Macron can coexist with a new government under France's semi-presidential and semi-parliamentary system in the future.
Cui Hongjian: As a core power in Europe, France's political changes will undoubtedly have a direct impact on the politics of the entire EU and even Europe. One is that the political wind is up, which will further boost the rise of the entire right-wing forces in Europe. In particular, the political changes in France, if linked to the political changes that took place in Italy before, can show that the political landscape of some of the core European powers has changed radically. At the same time, at the policy level, if French politics falls into a state of involution in the future, it will undoubtedly bring more direct constraints to France's role as a so-called great power at the EU level and even at the world level. In this case, it is likely that it will be more difficult to make decisions at the EU level in the coming period, including reaching consensus. Such a move could also further drag down the EU's performance on the international stage as a whole.
French President Emmanuel Macron (second from left) leaves a polling station after voting in the French city of Le Touquet on June 30. Image source: Xinhua News Agency (photo by Frank Bonham)
What does the future hold for French politics?
According to CCTV News, the far right is leading in the first round of voting in the French National Assembly election, why did this result occur? What changes are likely to take place in French politics in the future, and what impact will they have on the regional situation? Let's listen to Cui Hongjian, a professor at the Institute for Advanced Study of Regional and Global Governance at Beijing University of Foreign Chinese.
Cui Hongjian: I think one of the reasons why the "National Alliance" has taken a big lead this time is that in recent years, the far-right "National Alliance" has done a lot of measures to de-radicalize both political ideas and political positions. Including on the issue of immigration, anti-EU, in fact, there is a lot of flexibility. At the same time, we also know that in recent years, President Macron has carried out reforms at home, and although he has great determination and strength, it has also aroused some dissatisfaction and opposition from different strata in France. Now that France is in a difficult situation both internally and externally, the "National Alliance" has taken advantage of such a situation. From such a voting trend, we can predict a new pattern in French politics in the future, for example, whether the traditional "left-right politics" may reappear in French politics. In particular, with the combination of the right and the left, President Macron's party, which is now in the middle, is somewhat awkward.
Cui Hongjian: The results of the second round of elections are very likely to create a situation in which no party has an absolute majority, and it is possible that a coalition of political parties will form a new French government. Then there may be what is known as a very unique phenomenon in the history of France, in which the party of the president and the party of the prime minister and the government are not the same. Such a situation could have a series of implications for France's domestic and foreign affairs.
Cui Hongjian: On the NATO issue, President Emmanuel Macron's government has shown some independence from NATO. Other parties, both on the left and on the right, are likely to be more radical in their approach to NATO than Macron's. So in this context, I think there may be some new waves in the relationship between France and NATO in the future.
Can Macron win his "political gamble"?
According to CCTV News, Macron explained the decision to dissolve parliament and hold early elections not long ago: "On the one hand, in the European Parliament elections, the majority of French people voted for extremism (including the far right and the far left); On the other hand, in the National Assembly, the ruling party has only a relative majority of seats, and the reform plan is hampered by the opposition. With three years left in his presidency and no longer running for president after that, this important decision was made to 'make the French think their choice'. The election of the National Assembly does not threaten the position of the president, but it is closely related to the election of a new prime minister. In France, there may be a "co-governance" in which the president and the prime minister come from different parties, and the new prime minister is likely to come from a far-right party. ”
People cast their ballots at a polling station in the northern French city of Lille on June 30. Image source: Xinhua News Agency (photo by Sebastian Kurgi)
The French media interpreted Macron's "political gamble" as follows:
"With the momentum of the National Alliance, the likelihood of a far-right president in the future is growing. Even if the National Alliance wins a majority of seats in the early National Assembly elections and wins the prime minister's post, the leader of this party, which has absolutely no experience in government, will continue to 'fall in the blue', and the far-right will suffer setbacks at every turn. In this way, the French people will further identify the far right and dispel illusions before the 2027 presidential election. ”
The French constitution states that the president has the right to dissolve parliament. The French media pointed out that in the history of the French Fifth Republic, there have been five precedents for the president to respond to the political or social crisis faced by the government by dissolving the National Assembly. The president wants to reshuffle the cards with new parliamentary elections in an attempt to give the ruling party a chance to gain an absolute majority in parliament.
Right now, the far-right National Rassemblement is undoubtedly the biggest winner in the first round of voting. After the day's voting, to the cheers of supporters, Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rassembled, said:
"Macron's ruling camp has almost been washed ......"
For his part, the president of the National League, Jordán Bardeira, said: "The second round of voting, to be held on 7 July, will be one of the most decisive in the history of the French Fifth Republic. "If the National Rally gains a majority in the National Assembly, the far right will be historically in power in France. Whether it is a relative majority or an absolute majority, the 28-year-old Bardeira is expected to become the next French prime minister, ushering in the "era of co-governance" between centrists and far-right led by Macron. ”
Daily Economic News, CCTV News, Xinhua News Agency
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