Trading must-read: heavy data exceeds market expectations, and the storage industry chain ushers in major benefits; The Nasdaq closed at a new high, and Tesla rose more than 6%

Reporter: Yang Jian Editor: Peng Shuiping

(1) Important market news

1. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, with the Dow up 0.13%, the Nasdaq up 0.83% to a new closing high, and the S&P 500 up 0.27%. Most of the popular technology stocks rose, with Tesla up more than 6%, Apple up nearly 3%, and Microsoft and Amazon up more than 2%. Automobile manufacturing and consumer electronics sectors were among the top gainers. Most of the Chinese concept stocks rose, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 0.79%. Weilai and Li Auto rose more than 6%, Xpeng Motors rose more than 5%, Tencent Music rose more than 2%, Vipshop rose more than 1%, and NetEase, Weibo, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo rose slightly. iQiyi, Full Bang, and Futu Holdings fell more than 2%, Bilibili fell nearly 1%, and Baidu and JD.com fell slightly.

2. International oil prices rose across the board, with the U.S. oil August contract up 2.26% to $83.38 per barrel. Brent oil September contract rose 1.92% to $86.63 a barrel. The main indexes of European stocks closed with the German DAX 30 up 0.34%, the British FTSE 100 up 0.04%, the French CAC 40 up 1.09%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.74%.

(2) Macro news

On July 1, the Open Market Business Operation Office of the People's Bank of China announced that in order to maintain the steady operation of the bond market, on the basis of prudent observation and assessment of the current market situation, the People's Bank of China has decided to carry out treasury bond borrowing operations for some primary dealers in the open market in the near future. According to the team of Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, after the central bank borrows treasury bonds from some primary dealers in the open market, these treasury bonds can be sold in the secondary market, thereby lowering the market price of relevant treasury bonds and pushing up the yield of relevant treasury bonds. Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, recently analyzed that this is a further enrichment of the mainland central bank's monetary policy toolbox.

(3) Institutional perspectives

Mingyu Assets: High-frequency economic data is weak and unchanged, A-shares have not yet come out of the stock game pattern, and a variety of sentiment indicators have been seriously oversold, and a rebound needs catalysts. In May, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises fell, and insufficient demand was the key problem; The manufacturing PMI was flat in June, still low compared with the same period in recent years; Treasury bond futures have hit new highs, and the RMB exchange rate has depreciated significantly, all pointing to weak economic expectations and it will take time to reverse. In terms of market style, economic expectations are uncertain, and the long-term logic of the market, dividends, and high-performance leading styles with more earnings certainty has not been broken. At the same time, the transaction congestion of most industries has fallen from a high level, benefiting from the catalysis of industrial policies, and the technology growth sector that meets the requirements of new quality productivity may also perform. In terms of investment opportunities, we will continue to pay attention to the pan-dividend undervalued industries that benefit from the continued repair of risk premiums in the environment of low risk-free interest rates and reduced market volatility, and pay attention to other economic directions with low short-term congestion, such as AI. Technology hardware such as consumer electronics, optoelectronics, communication equipment, etc.

Xia Fengguang, manager of Rongzhi Investment Fund: On the one hand, the adjustment itself has been sufficient, the panic funds have gradually cleared, and the long forces have gradually gathered, and then further analyzed, from the perspective of plate structure, real estate has led the way in early trading, because the second-hand housing data in major cities has generally warmed up in recent times, and the policy effect has gradually emerged. Other macro data are similar, all of which are at the bottom and there is a high probability of an upside in July after the policy force is strong. In addition, the upcoming Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee in the middle of the year, the general direction of deepening reform will also bring expectations to the market. After a deep correction in June, there is a high probability that the market will resume its upward trend in July. Of course, whether it can break through the market still needs more fundamental data support, and we also need to see the continuous amplification of trading volume.

Hao Xinming, manager of Fangxin Wealth Investment Fund: At present, the market is still in a state of weak adjustment, structural style differentiation makes the Shanghai market stronger than the Shenzhen market, and the gradual shrinking volume is also a more calm performance of the market. If you look at the market outlook from a medium and long-term perspective, the main influencing factors are earnings and growth expectations, as far as the current situation is concerned, it may be that the shock bottoming time will exceed expectations, and the short-term is more of the impact of emergencies, and you can pay attention to the trading opportunities of popular trends.

(4) Industry nuggets

1. On July 1, the latest disclosed data showed that in June this year, South Korea's storage exports reached 13.4 billion US dollars, a sharp increase of 50.9% year-on-year, which is the largest export figure on record. This data is undoubtedly a blockbuster good news for the global industrial chain, indicating that the recovery momentum of storage exceeds market expectations. Another signal of the larger-than-expected recovery comes from the industry chain leaders. South Korean giant SK Group announced that its subsidiary SK hynix plans to invest 103 trillion won by 2028. In addition to the three overseas storage giants, domestic enterprises with cost and industrial chain advantages will also accelerate their involvement in more HBM production links. As the storage market enters the traditional peak season in the third quarter, the demand for storage continues to be high, benefiting from the rapid growth of demand for AI servers, the full demand for HBM, and the strong recovery of the North American server market. Concept stocks include Tongyou Technology, Qiangli New Materials, Langke Technology, etc.

2. On July 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the preparation plan for the establishment of the Brain-Computer Interface Standardization Technical Committee, which mentioned that the chairman and vice chairman of the Brain-Computer Interface Standardization Technical Committee (preparation) of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology intend to invite the responsible comrades of relevant departments and research institutions to serve as members, and the members are intended to be served by enterprises, scientific research institutes, universities and other industrial and technical experts in the field of brain-computer interface, and the secretariat is affiliated with the China Electronics Standardization Institute. After its establishment, the work plan includes: optimizing and improving the standardization roadmap, accelerating the development of key technical standards, and promoting the publicity and implementation of standards. Brain-computer interface technology is known as the "information highway" between the human brain and the outside world, and is recognized as the key core technology of the new generation of human-computer interaction and human-computer hybrid intelligence. In January 2024, seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed breakthroughs in key technologies and core devices such as brain-computer fusion and brain computational neural models, and encouraged the exploration of applications in typical fields such as medical rehabilitation, unmanned driving, and virtual reality. Related concept stocks include Hanwei Technology, Aipeng Medical, Innovative Medical, etc.

3. Recently, China Mobile, together with ZTE and UNISOC, completed the world's first mobile phone directly connected to high-orbit satellites based on the operator network IOT-NTN IMS, and the voice call laboratory of the satellite Internet of Things IP multimedia subsystem. High-orbit satellite communication has the advantages of wide coverage and high industrial maturity, and real-time voice communication in high-orbit satellite scenarios can effectively meet the voice communication needs of people in remote environments such as oceans and forests, and provide a more solid guarantee for emergency communication. China Mobile fully recognizes the importance of developing satellite Internet, especially mobile phones directly connected to satellites, and promotes the in-depth participation of terrestrial mobile operators in the design of space-ground integrated networks. Direct connection of mobile phones is the focus of satellite Internet competition, and direct connection of mobile phones is expected to reconstruct the satellite-to-ground communication system, and satellite communication modules and on-board payloads are expected to benefit. Concept stocks include Shuobeide, Zhenyou Technology, Tianyin Electromechanical and so on.

National Business Daily