The U.S. economy is currently showing that inflation is falling faster than demand, and demand itself will be more supported by fiscal support in the future, and financial stability will form a further potential boost to the interest rate cut itself, so the expectation of interest rate cut will always be faster than the decline in demand itself. After continuous shocks and corrections, the current A-share market has a high cost performance and margin of safety, and the policy of steady growth in the market outlook has been increased, combined with the continuous improvement of the system under the current capital market policy dividends, or to form a strong support for the market. Looking ahead, policy expectations are likely to drive a rebound in market risk appetite ahead of the July Politburo meeting and the Third Plenum.
The top five main net inflows into the industry sector: real estate, non-ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals · Zinc, colored · Copper, complete automobiles; The top five main net inflows in the concept sector: optoelectronic co-packaging CPO, optical communication, 5G, lidar, housing leasing; The top 10 main net inflows of individual stocks: Xin Yisheng, Zhongji Innolight, BAIC Blue Valley, Star Power, Tianfu Communication, Ping An Bank, Zijin Mining, Vanke A, Inspur Information, and Industrial Fortune Union
The price decline of the PV industry chain is narrowing and tending to be stable, with the prices of polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules all flat month-on-month. "Although the price decline in the photovoltaic industry chain has slowed down recently, it is expected that prices will remain low and under pressure in the short term due to the misalignment of supply and demand." It is expected that in the second half of the year, the price of the industrial chain will show a trend of consolidation and shock, and the competition in the industry will continue to intensify, which means that the clearance or acceleration of production capacity. The key to whether the new energy sector can rise lies in the rise and fall of the photovoltaic industry chain, and the relationship between supply and demand in the market will change the changes in the overall industry, and it is also expected to accelerate the improvement of the market.
As of June 27, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index have fallen by 0.98%, 7.09% and 9.95% respectively. Under the adjustment of the market, since the beginning of this year, the market liquidity has been loose, and incremental funds from northbound funds, ETFs, and buybacks of listed companies have actively entered the market. Wind data shows that as of June 26, the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds during the year was 44.587 billion yuan, the funds flowing into the market through ETFs exceeded 390 billion yuan, and the repurchase amount of listed companies reached 97.652 billion yuan. Analysts believe that since the beginning of the year, the marginal improvement of A-share capital has improved, and the scale of capital supply in the second half of the year is expected to improve slightly compared with the first half of the year. Among them, the scale of insurance funds entering the market may expand with the improvement of premium income, and foreign capital is expected to have a small net inflow.
After the release of favorable policies for the property market, many places responded quickly, and most cities have begun to implement them, ushering in a new round of down-payment ratio reduction and optimization of mortgage interest rates. In general, the central bank and fiscal support mechanisms can effectively play a supporting role. Especially in the current industry cycle, the role of stabilizing the market is more obvious, which can help the real estate industry cycle to bottom out, and can also promote the effective transformation of the real estate industry development model. Riding the bull and the bear believes that in the second half of the year, the support policies at both ends of the real estate supply and demand will be further strengthened, driven by favorable policies, the real estate market will gradually stabilize, and the new model of real estate development is expected to accelerate the construction.
Recently, the "Regulations on the Management of Rare Earths" was announced, which will come into force on October 1, 2024. The "Regulations" adhere to the protection of resources and development and utilization, follow the principles of overall planning, safety assurance, scientific and technological innovation, and green development, improve the supervision system of the whole rare earth industry chain, and clarify supervision and management measures and legal responsibilities. Riding the bull and watching the bear believes that the new policy will boost the changes in the rare earth industry, the supply and demand pattern may continue to improve, the price of rare earth is expected to stabilize and rebound, and the operating performance of rare earth sector companies is expected to usher in an inflection point, and you can pay attention to the strategic allocation value of the rare earth industry chain.
The Shanghai Composite Index has a relatively strong trend among the three major indexes, and there are obvious signs of stopping the decline, so you can pay attention to the rebound opportunities of other indices. With the gradual release of market selling pressure, market confidence is expected to re-condense and consolidate the foundation for the stability of A-shares.
The ChiNext index has been in poor shape recently, and Niu Ge found that technology stocks have the strongest compatibility with the rise and fall of the ChiNext index, which also needs to pay attention to the changes in the market outlook. At the overseas level, the direction of less macro resistance is "export-oriented varieties". First, a large class of assets priced globally, including copper and gold; The second is the advantageous industries of domestic exports, including household appliances, textiles and clothing, and general equipment. At present, the valuation of these two types of assets in A-shares is not low, and they can be intervened in the event of adjustment.