On June 30, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in June, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.5%, the same as in May; The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were both 50.5%, down 0.6 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively from May.
Zhang Liqun, a special analyst of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, told the financial reporter of China.com that the manufacturing PMI index in June was the same as that in May, but it was still below the boom and bust line, indicating that the economy is still in the stage of accumulating upward strength and facing greater downward pressure. Since the beginning of this year, a number of policies to stabilize growth and promote rebound have been carried out in advance, and the results have continued to appear, gradually enhancing the strength of economic recovery; At the same time, special attention should be paid to the fact that the problem of demand contraction is still prominent.
How to hedge the pressure of economic operation? Ren Zeping, a well-known economist and founder of Zeping Macro, believes that the simplest and most effective way is to "new" economic stimulus, through fiscal expansion, with monetary easing, expand demand, drive employment, stimulate economic growth, and implement it quickly, vigorously and re-implemented. Raise inflation expectations, nominal GDP growth, and boost household and business confidence. At the same time, we will increase support for the new economy and new quality productivity to enhance long-term competitiveness.
The new momentum of the manufacturing industry has accelerated its growth
China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.5% in June, unchanged from the previous month. The average month-on-month of the same period in the past 10 years was also flat, and the overall performance of the manufacturing industry was generally consistent with seasonality.
From the perspective of the changes in the sub-index, the production side has increased steadily, the growth of new kinetic energy has accelerated, the vitality of micro subjects has improved, the pressure on raw material costs has fallen in the short term, and the overall economic operation is stable, but the problem of insufficient market demand needs further attention.
Specifically, Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that the operation of the manufacturing industry in June showed four characteristics: demand continued to contract, production expansion slowed down, enterprises were weak in their willingness to replenish inventory, and the prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises rebounded.
The new orders index fell by 0.1 percentage points to 49.5% in June, and increased by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month on average in the same period in the past 10 years. The new export orders index was flat at 48.3%, an average month-on-month increase of 0.8 percentage points in the same period in the past 10 years.
"Both domestic and foreign demand are weaker than seasonal and continue to contract, and the lack of effective demand is still the main constraint to the current economic operation." Wen Bin said.
On the production side, the production index fell by 0.2 percentage points to 50.6% in June, with an average month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points in the same period in the past 10 years. Wen Bin believes that the pace of production expansion has slowed down and the performance is weaker than seasonal, but it is still stronger than demand, and the situation of production exceeding demand needs to be improved.
In June, the raw material inventory index fell by 0.2 percentage points and 47.6%, but the finished goods inventory index rebounded by 1.8 points to 48.3%, and the manufacturing inventory began to accumulate passively. Under the pressure of destocking, the corporate procurement volume index fell by 1.2 percentage points to 48.1%, only higher than in February.
The PMI of large enterprises fell by 0.6 percentage points to 50.1% in June, and the pace of expansion slowed to the lowest level of the year. The PMI of medium-sized enterprises rebounded by 0.4 percentage points to 49.8%, and the PMI of small enterprises rebounded by 0.7 percentage points to 47.4%, a slight improvement.
In Wen Bin's view, the prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises is more likely to be affected by external demand, and the prosperity of large enterprises is more likely to be affected by the price of upstream raw materials. In June, the raw material price index fell, but external demand showed resilience, which made the prosperity of the two differentiated.
It is worth mentioning that in June, one of the more prominent positive changes in the macro economy was the acceleration of growth by new drivers. From the perspective of key industries, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing was 52.3 percent, up 1.6 percentage points from May, and remained in the expansion range for eight consecutive months; the PMI of equipment manufacturing was 51.0 percent, up 0.3 percentage points from May, and maintained expansion for four consecutive months.
From the perspective of subdivided industries, the growth rate of railway, ship, aerospace transportation equipment manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, computer communication electronic equipment and instrumentation manufacturing industry is more prominent.
"In comparison, in June, the new kinetic energy achieved accelerated growth under the condition that the manufacturing industry as a whole maintained a relatively stable operation, and the industrial structure continued to be optimized." Wen Tao, an analyst at China Logistics Information Center, said.
Non-manufacturing activities continued to expand
In June, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point, and the non-manufacturing industry continued to expand.
The business activity index of the service industry was 50.2 percent, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity level of the service industry declined.
"Although the consumption performance of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday has fallen compared with the May Day holiday, the PMI reading of the service industry is still above the boom and wither line, supported by the good performance of postal, telecommunications, radio and television, satellite transmission services, insurance and other industries." The research team of the fixed income department of CITIC Securities said.
In terms of different industries, the business activity index of air transport, postal services, telecommunications, radio and television, satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, insurance and other industries was in the relatively prosperous range of more than 55.0%, and the total business volume grew rapidly.
It is worth mentioning that the monetary and financial services industry and the new momentum-related industries remained active, which was the main supporting force for the service industry to remain in the expansion range in June.
"Towards the end of the quarter, the market demand of the monetary and financial services industry was released intensively, driving business activities to become active, and the business activity index of the monetary and financial industry rose to more than 60%." Wu Wei, an analyst at the China Logistics Information Center, told reporters. "The information service industry, represented by telecommunications operations, has continued to maintain an active trend this year, which has also better supported the growth of the service industry."
From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 57.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be in a relatively high prosperity range, indicating that most service enterprises continue to be optimistic about the recent market development.
In terms of the construction industry, in June, the business activity index of the construction industry was 52.3%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the construction industry activity maintained a rapid growth, but the growth rate slowed down from the previous month.
Due to the impact of the off-season, the growth rate of building decoration industry activities slowed down significantly compared with the previous month, which became the main factor dragging down the growth of the construction industry. Infrastructure-related civil engineering construction activities maintained rapid growth, and housing construction activities maintained stable operation. As of June, the business activity index of the civil engineering and construction industry remained above 55% for five consecutive months; The business activity index of the housing construction industry has been above 51% for three consecutive months, and rose to more than 52% in June, rising month-on-month for two consecutive months. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 54.7%, indicating that most construction enterprises remain optimistic about the future development of the industry.
Looking forward to the follow-up, Wu Chaoming, vice president of the Finance and Credit Research Institute, expects that the summer vacation and the accelerated issuance and use of government bonds will support the PMI of the service industry and the construction industry respectively, both of which are expected to continue to run in the expansion range, but the clamping effect of the real estate downturn is still large, and the recovery height of the non-manufacturing industry should not be overestimated.
(Editor in charge: Wang Qingyu)
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