Recently, the political scene in France has changed dramatically. Although it is said that Macron was successfully re-elected as president of France. However, France's far-right party, the National Rally Party, held a relative majority in the first round of parliamentary elections. The second phase of the congressional elections will begin in recent days. If nothing else, the National Alliance will occupy the majority of seats in the French parliament, and the parties in the ruling coalition led by Macron will only occupy third place in the parliamentary elections.
In this way, Macron becomes the "weak president" of France. In the event of a parliamentary election in which the far-right National Alliance holds a majority of seats, Macron may be at risk of impeachment. And the great changes in French politics will also change the "earth-shattering" sky. Le Pen, the leader of the National League party, may become the first hard-line female president in French history, leading France to the road of independence again. And there is a good chance that this female president will do something big, dismember NATO.
Why is Le Pen so popular in France?
Then look at the problems that France is currently facing.
The first problem is the embarrassment of international status. France has always been a great power in the European region. After the end of World War II, France became a small henchman of the United States. However, de Gaulle was reluctant to be an American follower. Charles de Gaulle was elected president of France in 1958, France announced its withdrawal from NATO in 1967, imposed a strong arms embargo on the Israeli army, and supported the liberation struggles of Arab countries. This pursuit of an independent foreign policy became the object of imitation by French leaders in the future. Even during President Jacques Chirac's administration, France voted against the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
Today, however, France has lost its autonomy because it is excessively pro-American. Especially on the important issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war, France excessively suppressed Russia and sent weapons to the Ukrainian army, which caused France's domestic economy to be seriously affected. What does the United States prove by strapped France to the chariot of countering Russia and constantly sending weapons to the Ukrainian army, but not getting anything in return? If France wants to maintain its economic development, it must not be dependent on any major power. Maintaining friendly relations with Russia and countering US hegemony is the right direction for French diplomacy.
Therefore, whoever can restore Gaullism will win the hearts and minds of the people in France.
The second problem is that the French economy is in constant recession, and the problem of immigration and other problems is making the French people miserable. But Macron's own governing style seems to be limited in his approach to these issues, and the French people want an iron-fisted president to come to power and implement drastic reforms to the French economy.
The third problem is the military problem, and France has now reached a bottleneck in its military development. There is no trace of a fifth-generation fighter yet, and the development of a sixth-generation fighter must be in full swing. The second aircraft carrier of the French Navy has not been heard from since. If its military strength is not strong, France will not have the capital to compete with the United States. It's a terrifying thing.
Therefore, France now needs a new "de Gaulle", and Le Pen can meet the needs of the French people and French national interests.
In the international arena, Le Pen is very disgusted with NATO as a military organization, believing that NATO's existence is a threat to Europe. Therefore, when the French president was elected in 2022, Le Pen said that if she came to power, she would lead France to withdraw from NATO. This is tantamount to saying that Le Pen will withdraw from NATO once she becomes the first female president of France. Therefore, Le Pen's coming to power has become a matter of great concern for the United States.
Militarily, Le Pen wants France to expand its military in an all-round way, to counter the hegemony of the United States and to safeguard France's own interests. Le Pen is likely to urge France to start construction of a second aircraft carrier and rapidly expand its naval capabilities. Although Le Pen is a woman, her political vision is not lost to many leaders in the European region. I believe that Le Pen's military reform will most likely realize the French dream of enriching the country and strengthening the army again.
In terms of economic development, Le Pen also has her own ideas. Le Pen will implement comprehensive free education to improve the quality of education for the French people. Le Pen will refuse foreign companies to invest directly in strategic companies in France, and protect France's core industrial technology from foreign control. France will increase the management of foreign immigration, and the number of immigrants will not exceed 10,000 per year. This move is controversial, but it objectively protects the employment rights and other rights of the French people. Le Pen also advocates for lower personal income tax for low-income groups.
Diplomatically, France will withdraw from the European Union in addition to NATO. It is not even ruled out that the French side will reform the EU. Le Pen wants the EU to move from the current European integration to a loose union. Because after the integration of the European Union, it is easy to create the overall control of Europe by the United States. After the EU becomes a loose union, it will be inconvenient for the United States to exercise complete control over the EU. At this time, France can join forces with Germany, Belgium, Italy, Spain and other European powers to form a relatively core European association to jointly resist the confrontation of hegemonism, so that the future development of Europe is firmly in the hands of the Europeans, not the Americans.
Everything Le Pen has done is aimed at solving France's existing problems and reinvigorating France. If the mistakes of the Macron administration have not been corrected, Le Pen's coming to power is a highly probable event.