1. Good morning, brothers and sisters, A-shares have been open for an hour, and the market has returned to 3,000 points under the rise of weights, but the question is, is the index back, is everyone's fund back? It must not have come back, in addition, the liquor sector rose 2% against the trend today, and the liquor sector is now over-falling and rebounding or completely bottoming out, let's continue to look down!
2. Is the liquor sector over-falling and rebounding or bottoming out today?
From a technical point of view, the liquor sector has fallen all the way from May 22 to the present, and the short-term technical daily chart KDJ indicator golden cross has met the conditions for an over-fall rebound, so it is up today.
At the same time, on the news side, the liquor sector has also had several good news recently:
News 1: Moutai shouted that liquor has been fine for a long time, and Wang Li, deputy secretary of the Party committee and general manager of Moutai Group, carried out market research in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Beijing, etc., and held a meeting to say that the basic attributes of Moutai have not changed, and the basic demand side has not changed. In the past few decades, the liquor industry has undergone several rounds of adjustments, and each time Moutai has smoothly passed through the cycle with strong determination and strength, and has achieved better development. Compared with the past, although the current situation is more complex, the current Moutai has stronger core competitiveness, better market channel ecology and more resilience in risk prevention, and has the confidence, strength and ability to go through this cycle. All dealers and channels should maintain concentration and firm confidence.
News 2: Luzhou Laojiao's core single product, 38 degrees Guojiao 1573 (classic), stopped taking orders and began to control goods and prices, so as to stabilize the price of liquor.
3. Will the liquor sector rise in the future?
Since the sharp rise in 2020, the liquor sector has been sideways for three years, the overall valuation of the liquor industry is low, the channel inventory pressure is high and other factors have been priced in by the market, and the probability of the industry continuing to weaken marginally is not high. But liquor sales peaked as early as 2016, and the current events reflect the intensification of competition for liquor.
In the past few years, the general environment has been bad, the economy has declined, and under the consumption characteristics of "no unnecessary spending", the dependence of liquor consumption on specific scenes and crowd gatherings has been greatly increased, and the downturn in business activities has led to flat consumption in the off-season. Although the Dragon Boat Festival is the traditional four major festivals, due to the short holiday time and limited consumption scenes, the pull on liquor consumption is relatively limited.
The current liquor industry is squeezing bubbles. The more the bubble blows in the past two years, the faster the bubble bursts and the harder it falls. The three major attributes of liquor, namely consumption attributes, social attributes and financial attributes, are not common to all liquor companies. Only a very few leading enterprises such as Moutai may have financial attributes, but the financial attributes of the entire liquor industry are negligible; At the same time, residents' consumption is affected by the decline in income, the increase in unemployment and the decrease in consumption desire, etc., the consumption sinking momentum is obvious, coupled with the control of institutional entertainment expenses, the social attributes and consumption attributes of liquor are also affected, which has an adverse impact on the increment and price increase of the liquor industry. ”
From the increment to the stock era, the "war" between enterprises is inevitable. Since the beginning of this year, the liquor industry is facing multiple problems such as declining demand, oversupply, and intensified competition, and various liquor companies have also come up with "countermeasures", some liquor companies such as Luzhou Laojiao directly cut prices and make profits, and some liquor companies such as Wuliangye choose to control the supply.
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