GPI, Green Industry, Prosperity Index, Customer Research
The June 2024 Industrial Green Prosperity Index GPI (Issue 78) was released on July 1, 2024.
According to the June 2024 GPI survey:
In June 2024, the prosperity of the green industry will fall;
From the perspective of sub-indexes, the decline in demand for green industries and the increase in capital pressure have become the main drags, and the production index has fallen but is still in the expansion range, and the cost pressure has declined;
In terms of industries, the demand for green environmental protection special equipment and materials manufacturing industry was strong this month, and the prosperity of the environmental monitoring industry increased.
In terms of the scale of enterprises, the prosperity of enterprises of different sizes has declined to varying degrees, but the prosperity index of large and medium-sized enterprises has remained in the expansion range, showing strong resilience.
According to Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, the construction of ecological civilization has become an indispensable and important part of the overall layout of the "five-in-one" construction of socialism in the mainland. The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out: "Building an ecological civilization is a millennium plan for the sustainable development of the Chinese nation. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China further pointed out: "Chinese modernization is the modernization of harmonious coexistence between man and nature. …… We adhere to sustainable development, adhere to the principle of giving priority to conservation, protection and natural restoration, protect nature and the ecological environment like protecting eyes, and unswervingly follow the path of civilized development with production development, affluent life and good ecology, so as to realize the sustainable development of the Chinese nation. ”
As a pioneer in green finance in mainland China, IB has been working hard in the field of green finance for 18 years since the first energy efficiency loan was launched in 2006, has a complete green finance product line, and has accumulated many customers in green finance segments. Relying on these customer bases, the IB Carbon Finance Research Institute conducted a questionnaire survey and constructed the "IB Green Prosperity Index (GPI)" based on it, aiming to track the prosperity of the development of green industries in a timely manner and look forward to future trends.
The June 2024 GPI Index is the 78th issue overall, and we will continue to publish the index and analysis every month, so stay tuned.
1. The prosperity of the green industry has fallen. The GPI index for June 2024 was 48.3%, down 7.7 percentage points from the previous month. In June, the overall prosperity of the green industry rebounded, the comprehensive prosperity index fell below the critical point, and the expected index also fell sharply, showing a certain synchronization with the recent trend of the carbon neutrality index, and the carbon neutrality index of the China Securities State Grid in June fell by 3.5% compared with the end of last month. Historically, the trend of the GPI Expectation Index of large and medium-sized enterprises has been in high synchrony with the rise and fall of the Carbon Neutrality Index (see Chart 1).
2. Demand has fallen and capital turnover is under pressure. In the course of this month's survey, the number of surveyed enterprises that listed "tight funds" and "insufficient demand" as the main difficulties faced in their business operations accounted for 35% and 30% respectively, ranking in the top two of all difficulties. In terms of supply and demand, the new orders index and capacity utilization index fell by 10.7 and 10.3 percentage points respectively last month, although supply and demand have fallen sharply, but production is still in the expansion range, while the new orders index fell below the critical point. In terms of capital turnover, the government cooperation in the green industry weakened in June, the subsidy rate was still at a low level, the capital index decreased by 10.1 percentage points from the previous month, close to the historical low, and the small enterprise capital index fell sharply, showing a certain synchronization with the liquidity situation reflected in the recent 3-year AA+ corporate bond credit spread trend, the credit spread widened in late June, and the GPI small enterprise capital index declined (see Chart 3). Cost pressures have declined, with the cost index down 8.7 percentage points from the previous month.
3. The demand for green environmental protection special equipment and materials manufacturing industry is strong, and the prosperity of the environmental monitoring industry is improving. In June, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the "Guidance Catalogue for the Promotion and Application of the First (Set) Major Technical Equipment (2024 Edition)", including four categories of advanced energy-saving and environmental protection equipment; The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued special action plans for energy conservation and carbon reduction in the four industries of iron and steel, oil refining, synthetic ammonia and cement, as the specific implementation of the "2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan", to promote the energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformation of the four industries and the renewal of energy-using equipment, which will bring a large number of low-carbon, environmental protection and energy-saving equipment renewal needs. According to the results of this month's GPI survey, the demand for green special equipment and materials manufacturing industry is strong in the context of the overall demand for green industries, with the new orders index, export orders index and in-hand orders index rising by 4.2, 14.4 and 1 percentage points respectively month-on-month. In addition, this month, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Assessment and Monitoring of Ultra-low Emissions of Cement and Coking Enterprises", which promoted the prosperity of the environmental monitoring industry to 65%, ranking first among all green sub-industries.
On June 7, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued special action plans for energy conservation and carbon reduction in four industries: iron and steel, oil refining, synthetic ammonia, and cement, to promote energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformation and energy-using equipment renewal in four industries. In the iron and steel industry, the large-scale upgrading and transformation of sintering and pelletizing equipment will be implemented, and the sintering flue gas circulation, low energy consumption and low emission large proportion pellet smelting technology will be promoted. Promote the implementation of 1,000 cubic meters and below steelmaking pig iron blast furnace renovation. Accelerate the upgrading of energy-using equipment such as inefficient motors, boilers, oxygen generators, air compressors, water pumps, fans, and transformers in iron and steel enterprises. In terms of the oil refining industry, we will accelerate the promotion and application of boilers, motors, transformers and other general energy-using equipment whose energy efficiency has reached the energy-saving level and above. Promote advanced technology and equipment such as high-efficiency catalytic cracking flue gas turbines, high-efficiency heating furnaces, air preheaters, high-efficiency heat exchangers, intermediate reboilers, heat pump distillation, and low-temperature distillation. Completely eliminate atmospheric and vacuum devices of 2 million tons/year and below. In the synthetic ammonia industry, large-scale advanced process air separation, gasifiers, and heat exchangers are promoted. Popularize energy-using equipment such as high-efficiency inverter motors, transformers, and compressors, and promote advanced process devices such as water-cooled wall-type coal-water slurry gasification and low-energy urea. In the cement industry, we support the overall replacement of preheaters, kiln burners, grate coolers, original hammer crushers, roller presses, fans, separators, conveyors, and dust removal equipment. The key areas of air pollution prevention and control should further improve the energy consumption, environmental protection, quality, safety, and technical requirements of the cement industry, and gradually phase out restricted processes and equipment.
On June 20, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guidance Catalogue for the Promotion and Application of the First (Set) Major Technical Equipment (2024 Edition)", which includes four categories of advanced energy-saving and environmental protection equipment: water-saving and water treatment equipment, air pollution control equipment, solid waste treatment and utilization equipment, core systems and key components of advanced energy-saving and environmental protection equipment. Specifically, it includes equipment for high-efficiency concentration and separation of vibrating membranes, equipment for high-salt wastewater treatment, supercritical water oxidation equipment for organic waste liquid, carbon dioxide capture equipment for million-ton power plants, environmental protection island-type air pollutant treatment equipment, equipment for high-value resource utilization of oily sludge, water-cooled grate furnace equipment for solid waste incineration with high calorific value, and equipment for the resource utilization of waste lithium batteries [1].
On June 6, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Assessment and Monitoring of Ultra-low Emissions of Cement and Coking Enterprises", requiring local ecological and environmental departments at all levels to highlight the key points and make steady progress in line with the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability and time obeying quality, and guide enterprises in key areas of air pollution prevention and control to take the lead in carrying out ultra-low emission transformation and assessment and monitoring, and other regions to advance in an orderly manner; It is necessary to strengthen services for enterprises, provide guidance for ultra-low emission transformation and evaluation and monitoring, and guide enterprises to give priority to the adoption of coordinated pollution reduction and carbon reduction measures such as source reduction, process control, and raw fuel substitution.
4. The prosperity index of large and medium-sized enterprises remained in the expansion range. In terms of enterprise size, this month's GPI survey results show that the prosperity index of large enterprises, large and medium-sized enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises and small enterprises decreased by 1.9, 3.9, 10.2 and 12.6 percentage points respectively from the previous month. Although the prosperity of enterprises of different sizes has declined, large and large and medium-sized enterprises have shown strong resilience, the prosperity index remains in the expansion range, and the differentiation of enterprises of different sizes has increased.
Note: [1] Source: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guidance Catalogue for the Promotion and Application of the First (Set) Major Technical Equipment (2024 Edition)", Polaris Atmospheric Network [EB/OL], 2024/6/26 [2024/7/1] https://huanbao.bjx.com.cn/news/20240626/1385243.shtml
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