The far-right's "victory in the first battle" shook France

This newspaper's special correspondent in France, Shang Kaiyuan, Tao Shortfang, Liu Yupeng, and Chen Kang

"France's far-right National Alliance has won a historic victory in the first round of the National Assembly elections." On July 1, the mainstream Western media made headlines about the French National Assembly election. According to opinion polls, the National Alliance led the first round with 33.5% of the vote, the left-wing coalition "New Popular Front" won 28.5% of the vote, and French President Emmanuel Macron's ruling coalition received only 20.7% of the vote. However, it is still a suspense whether the National Alliance will be able to win more than half of the seats in the National Assembly in the second round of elections to be held next Sunday (7th). Regarding the possibility of a "historic breakthrough" for the National Alliance, both the ruling coalition and the Left Alliance have taken a strong statement, declaring that they will never allow the National Alliance to gain a parliamentary majority, and that they are ready to join forces in the second round of elections. The situation of the parliamentary elections in France has attracted great attention from many countries in the European Union, as well as the United Kingdom and the United States and other Western countries that are about to hold elections, and the West is worried that this election will affect not only France, but also the entire West. Mélenchon, leader of the left-wing "France the Indomitable" party, said: "We will face a long wait in the coming week, and in the long term this election will determine the future of our country and the fate of each of us. The French "Le Figaro" said on the 1st that the first round of the election not only means that the Macron camp has suffered a serious setback, but also indicates that "a historic upheaval is coming".

"The second round is decisive"

According to Agence France-Presse, the far-right National Alliance led the way with 33.5 percent of the vote in the first round of the French National Assembly election, breaking two records: the party's all-time highest percentage of votes in a national election and the most votes in the first round of a national election, according to exit polls by pollsters. In addition, the number of candidates who entered the second round of the National Alliance elections and the number of candidates who led in the first round almost doubled compared to the last National Assembly elections. The "European Times" said on the 1st that these records show that the National Alliance has started a historic turning point: they have never been able to break through the "invisible ceiling of politics" in previous elections. They "tore a hole" in the European Parliament elections three weeks ago, and now that restriction "has collapsed".

Although the results of the second round of the elections are uncertain, the defeat of Macron's ruling coalition is already a fact in the eyes of all parties. After the first round of elections, the ruling coalition fell from the largest political force in the country to third, far behind the National Alliance and the Left Alliance. "Le Figaro" said on the 1st that "this sluggish data marks the end of the rule of the Macron camp in the National Assembly". According to the French newspaper Le Monde, "After the European Parliament elections dealt a serious blow to the current government, Macron's 'clarifying public opinion' operation ended in the collapse of the presidential camp." This has led to an unprecedented erosion of presidential authority at a critical moment in French history, and "Macron, who has been vetoed by the French people in terms of governance methods and policies, will also lose control of the party he created." He had never seemed so isolated and reprimanded. ”

After the first round, Macron issued a statement saying that the high turnout in the first round (65%) shows "the importance of this vote for all of us and the desire of the population for a clear political situation". He called on voters to "build a broad, visible democratic-republican coalition against the far right in the second round of voting."

At the same time, Le Pen, the leader of the National Alliance, who was elected in the first round with more than 58% of the vote, welcomed the results, saying that "this shows that the Macron camp has actually collapsed". She added, "We haven't won yet, the second round is decisive...... We need an absolute majority. ”

In an effort to persuade more voters to vote for his party, Bardeira, the 28-year-old president of the National Rassemblement Nacional (Rassembled), promised to be "prime minister of all French people, listening to everyone" and "co-governing prime minister, respecting the constitution and the functions of the president, but uncompromising on the inappropriate policies that Macron wants to pursue."

Three forces and three endings

"In the face of the far right, the left is counting on joining forces with the Macron camp to resist." "Le Figaro" said on the 1st that after the results of the first round of elections, Mélenchon, the leader of the left-wing party "Indomitable France", said that Macron's ruling coalition had experienced "a heavy and indisputable defeat", and he called for not letting the National Alliance win "one more vote" or "one seat". He said that if the candidate of "France the Indomitable" came third in the first round in the tripartite contest in each constituency, he would urge the candidate to "drop out" in order to increase the chances of the leader "beating the National Alliance".

The French newspaper Le Monde published a commentary saying that only a "strong republican front" could block the far right from coming to power and prevent the overthrow of France. The current Prime Minister Attar has publicly appealed: "The far right is standing at the door of power. Never before in the democratic history of our country has there been such a risk of being controlled by far-right forces. "Our goal is clear: to prevent the National Alliance from gaining an absolute majority in the second round of elections and from dominating the National Assembly." ”

Regarding the future political situation in France, Radio France International said on the 1st that after the second round of elections, if the National Alliance wins an absolute majority of seats in the National Assembly, the party's chairman Bardera is expected to become the new French prime minister. This means that for the first time since the end of World War II, the National Assembly is under the control of far-right forces, and it will once again put France in a situation of "left-right co-governance" (the president and the prime minister belong to different parties). According to the report, there have been three "left-right co-governance" situations in modern French politics, all of which occurred between mainstream political parties and were generally relatively successful, and once the far-right national coalition comes to power, it may hinder Macron's internal reform process and foreign policy.

According to the report, if the National Alliance fails to win an absolute majority in the National Assembly, then Macron is likely to seek cooperation between the center and the left to promote the formation of a coalition government. In addition, there is a third possibility, that is, the three camps of the far right, the center, and the left do not have enough seats to govern alone and form a coalition government. Faced with such a situation, the French government will be paralyzed, and the caretaker government will have to manage the basic day-to-day affairs.

The West fears a "dangerous turn"

On the 1st, French Prime Minister Attar announced through the media that he would suspend the reform plan to reduce the period of receiving unemployment benefits, which was originally scheduled to be implemented in early July. According to Reuters, in order to compete for voters, French political parties have pledged to increase spending. The National Alliance has announced that it will reverse Macron's pension reform plan and cut taxes on fuel, gas and electricity. This suggests that no matter which party wins, France will face a fiscal and debt crisis after the election. An editorial in Le Figaro on the 1st said that France "is caught in this deadly confrontation and faces the dual prospect of political adventure or institutional stalemate: both are manifestations of a regime crisis."

"Once the National Alliance comes to power, France could fall into a constitutional crisis." According to CNN, the National Alliance also rejected Macron's idea of sending troops to help Ukraine resist Russia and claimed that Kyiv would not be allowed to use French military equipment to attack targets inside Russia. This could cause a constitutional crisis in France about who dominates foreign policy, with implications for the EU, NATO.

What worries the West even more is that the results of the French elections show that the whole of Europe is "turning to the right". Weidel, the leader of Germany's far-right AfD party, said on the 1st, "It's great that Le Pen can achieve such a good result." It is also an example for the AfD. ”

However, German Foreign Minister Baerbock said on the 1st that the lead of the National Alliance in the first round of the election was "worrying". "No one can remain indifferent in the elections of a party in our closest partner countries that sees Europe as a problem rather than a solution." In the United Kingdom, where parliamentary elections are about to be held on Thursday, Labour Party leader Starmer said on the 1st that the French election is a lesson and that "we need to address people's daily concerns." Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned on the 1st that France and Europe are facing a "very dangerous turn" after the far-right forces won the first round of France's key elections. He accused many far-right parties in Europe of being "influenced by Russia".

According to RIA Novosti, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said on the 1st: "We are very carefully observing the progress of these elections, which confirms the general trend in European countries, including France." Russian State Duma Chairman Volodin said that Macron lost the first round of parliamentary elections, and US President Joe Biden lost the campaign debate, "These results are not accidental, the people of Western countries have made a choice." Dzhabarov, deputy chairman of the International Affairs Committee of the Russian Federation Council (upper house of parliament), said that Russian-French relations should not be expected to improve after the French parliamentary elections. ▲