I. Introduction
With the rapid development of science and technology, breakthroughs have been made in artificial intelligence (AI) and sensing technology, which have injected new vitality into the development of humanoid robots. Humanoid robots, as an important carrier of future intelligent technology, are leading a new round of scientific and technological revolution with their unique characteristics of "embodied intelligence". In this revolution, "performance improvement + cost reduction" has become the core driving force for the development of humanoid robots, and the localization process is the key way to achieve this goal.
2. Analysis of the localization process of humanoid robots
(1) Background of localization
The localization process of humanoid robots is the result of the joint promotion of national strategy, market demand and technological progress. On the one hand, with the country's emphasis on high-end manufacturing and artificial intelligence industries, humanoid robots, as an important field, have received strong policy support. On the other hand, with the rising labor cost and the aging of the population, the market demand for humanoid robots is also increasing. In addition, with the continuous progress of AI technology and sensing technology, the performance of humanoid robots has been significantly improved, and the cost has been gradually reduced, providing a strong guarantee for the localization process.
(2) The status quo of localization
At present, a series of important breakthroughs have been made in the field of humanoid robots in China, especially in the localization of key components. Taking core components such as reducers, lead screws, frameless torque motors, and coreless motors as examples, domestic manufacturers are accelerating import substitution and continuously improving the performance and quality of products. Among them, harmonic reducer and lead screw, as the core components in the joints of humanoid robots, their localization rate has gradually increased, and the competition pattern has become increasingly clear. As the power core of the robot, the frameless torque motor and the coreless motor are also gradually being replaced by domestic ones. In addition, in the field of perception such as sensors, domestic manufacturers are also accelerating technological breakthroughs and industrial upgrading, and strive to achieve greater import substitution in key areas such as force sensors.
(3) Key enterprises and achievements
In the process of localization of humanoid robots, a number of enterprises with core technology and market competitiveness have emerged. These companies have not only made breakthroughs in the manufacture of key components, but also have strong strength in machine design and system integration. Taking UBTECH as an example, as a leader in humanoid robots in China and a leading enterprise in intelligent service robots, the company has launched a variety of high-performance and cost-effective humanoid robot products with its strong technical research and development strength and keen market insight. These products have not only achieved good sales performance in the domestic market, but also successfully entered the international market and have been widely recognized and praised. In addition, Unitree Technology, Fourier Intelligence and other enterprises have also performed well in the field of humanoid robots, and have achieved rapid development through continuous technological innovation and market expansion.
Chart: Changes in the registration scale of humanoid robot companies as of 2024
Source: Qichacha, compiled by CIC Industry Research Institute (as of January 31, 2024)
3. Analysis of key enterprises
(1) UBTECH
As a leading enterprise of humanoid robots in China, UBTECH has achieved remarkable results in the field of humanoid robots with its strong technical research and development strength and keen market insight. The company focuses on technology research and development and product innovation, and has launched a variety of humanoid robot products with independent intellectual property rights through independent research and development and cooperative development. These products not only have a high degree of intelligence and autonomy, but can also be widely used in education, medical care, services and other fields. At the same time, UBTECH also actively explores new application scenarios and market space, and jointly promotes the application and development of humanoid robots through close cooperation with partners in various industries.
(2) Unitree Technology
Unitree Technology is an enterprise focusing on the R&D and production of humanoid robots, and its products are at the leading level in the industry in terms of performance and quality. The company pays attention to technological innovation and quality control, and realizes the whole process of independent production from parts manufacturing to complete machine assembly through the introduction of international advanced production equipment and technology. At the same time, Unitree also actively expands the international market and has established strategic cooperative relations with a number of internationally renowned enterprises to jointly promote the global application and development of humanoid robots.
(3) Fourier intelligence
Fourier Intelligence is an enterprise with strong competitiveness in the field of humanoid robots, and its products have been widely recognized by the market in terms of performance and quality. The company focuses on technology research and development and market expansion, and has launched a series of humanoid robot products with independent intellectual property rights through continuous technological innovation and product innovation. At the same time, Fourier Intelligence is also actively exploring new application scenarios and market space, and jointly promoting the application and development of humanoid robots through close cooperation with partners in various industries.
Chart: Humanoid Robotics Industry Player Segmentation
Source: CIC Industry Research Institute
Fourth, the market space analysis of subdivided industries
(1) Humanoid robot hardware
The joint cost accounts for a high proportion, focusing on the reducer and the lead screw. The joints of humanoid robots include rotary joints and linear joints, accounting for about 58% of the cost. In addition to the sensor and motor in the joint, the core components in the rotary/linear joint are the reducer and the lead screw, the two parts account for about 7.4%/6.4% of the cost of the robot machine, assuming that the number and type of the reducer and lead screw currently used remain unchanged, it is expected that by 2030, the global market space will be 1317/116.4 billion yuan, and the CAGR will be 105%/108% respectively. In 2022, the localization rate of harmonic reducer in the domestic market will be 44%, and there is still room for import substitution, with high barriers and a good competition pattern. The lead screw is the core component of the linear joint, which mainly relies on foreign imports, and the barriers are mainly raw materials, processing and manufacturing capacity, etc., and there is a large space for import substitution.
(2) Humanoid robot power
The robot power source "frameless torque motor", the core of the dexterous hand "coreless motor", domestic substitution is worth looking forward to. The motor is the power core of the robot, including a frameless torque motor for large joints (15% cost) and a coreless motor for fingers (6% cost). The global market space of frameless torque motors is expected to reach 210.7 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of about 98% from 2023 to 2030. The coreless motor is the core of the dexterous hand, and the global market space is expected to reach 92.3 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 97% from 2023 to 2030. Coreless motor technology barriers are high, including winding technology, etc., the current localization rate is low, and domestic manufacturers represented by Mingzhi Electric are importing instead.
(3) Humanoid robot perception
Low localization rate + large space, focusing on force sensors. Robot sensors mainly include vision sensors and force sensors, among which force sensors account for a relatively large proportion of the cost of humanoid robots, about 30%. It is estimated that by 2030, the market space of humanoid robot force sensors will reach 268.1 billion yuan, and the CAGR will reach 86% from 2023 to 2030; In addition to force sensors, the market space of humanoid robot vision sensors/encoders is expected to reach 82/25 billion yuan by 2030; There are still some technical difficulties to be overcome in electronic skin, and according to the commercialization progress of various sensors, force sensors are worth paying attention to.
Fifth, the future development prospects
(1) Market demand continues to grow
With the aging of the population and the rising labor costs, the market demand for humanoid robots will continue to grow. Especially in the fields of education, medical care, and services, humanoid robots will play an increasingly important role. At the same time, with the continuous progress of technology and the continuous expansion of application scenarios, the market size of humanoid robots will also continue to expand.
(2) Technological innovation continues to make breakthroughs
In the field of humanoid robots, technological innovation is a key factor driving the development of the industry. In the future, with the continuous breakthroughs and innovations in AI technology, sensing technology, robotics and other fields, the performance of humanoid robots will be further improved, and the cost will be gradually reduced. At the same time, new application scenarios and market space will continue to emerge, injecting new vitality into the development of humanoid robots.
(3) The process of localization has been accelerated
In the field of humanoid robots, the localization process will be accelerated. With the continuous breakthroughs and innovations of domestic enterprises in key parts manufacturing, complete machine design, system integration, etc., the performance and quality of domestic humanoid robots will be further improved, and the market competitiveness will be gradually enhanced. At the same time, the strong support of national policies and the continuous growth of market demand will also provide a strong guarantee for the development of domestic humanoid robots.
(4) Strengthen international cooperation and exchanges
In the field of humanoid robots, international cooperation and exchanges will be further strengthened. With the deepening of globalization and the increasingly close economic and trade ties between countries, the cooperation and exchanges between countries in the field of humanoid robots will become more frequent and deeper.