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△National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
Beijing Express, July 2, People's Voice In the blink of an eye, the "summer solstice" of the traditional 24 solar terms has arrived. This week's (July 1-July 7) national weather stage, in the opinion of experts, there will be big changes in general; During the period from July 3 to 4, with the obvious westward extension and northward lifting of the subtropical high, the distribution of rain and heat shifted greatly. At the same time, the southern part of the Yangtze River and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River changed from rainy to sunny and hot; In Huanghuai, North China and other places, there is a trend of decreasing high temperature and increasing rainfall. In addition, due to the eastward shift of the continental warm ridge, the high temperature in Xinjiang decreases, but the northern part of Heilongjiang increases.
△24-hour cumulative monitoring of severe convective weather across the country (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
Experts said that the monitoring data showed that from yesterday (1st) to this morning (2nd), the main rain belt continued to maintain from Guangxi to Jiangsu; During this period, 227 mm in Chongyang, Hubei Province, and 208.7 mm in Miluo, Hunan Province, both broke the single-day rainfall record in the history of observation, while 232 mm in Guannan, Jiangsu Province, broke the record of single-day precipitation in July according to the meteorological cut-off at 08 o'clock, while the cut-off record at 08 o'clock was 163.9 mm, and the cut-off record at 20 o'clock was 247.4 mm. In addition, heavy rain - heavy rain also occurred yesterday in Hebei and Shandong on the south side of the cold vortex, as well as in western Yunnan affected by the monsoon airflow.
△National short-term heavy precipitation warning (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
According to experts, according to the latest analysis of meteorological data, the rainfall in the main rain belt began to weaken today; Moreover, the eastern part of the rain band is advancing northeast with the low vortex. In addition, due to the influence of the cold vortex, Xinjiang also had significant rainfall, and the weather ushered in a turning point. However, the Sichuan Basin is likely to have high temperatures during the day today; Because of the accumulation of convective energy, it moves eastward with the plateau trough at night; The formation of an unstable structure of "dry and cold at the top and warm and wet at the bottom" may excite significant convection. To this end, the Central Meteorological Observatory this morning issued a yellow warning for heavy rain and a blue warning for severe convective weather.
△ National Gale Forecast Map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
According to expert analysis, judging from this morning's real-time observation and numerical model forecast, there is currently a Jianghuai cyclone developing; From the current forecast, it can be seen that it will continue to move north after entering the Yellow Sea from Jiangsu during the day; From tonight to tomorrow morning (3rd), it will enter the northeast. Under the influence of the cyclone, the Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that from 08:00 on July 2 to 08:00 on the 3rd, there will be strong winds of 7~8 and gusts of 9~10 in the Bohai Sea, the Bohai Strait, most of the Yellow Sea, and the western part of the East China Sea, of which the winds in the northern and central and western parts of the Yellow Sea can reach 9 and 10~11 gusts.
△National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
Industry insiders stressed that it is not difficult to find that the situation is also not difficult to find, as experts said, from July 3 to 4, the main rain belt lifted significantly northward, and the rain in the south of the Yangtze River and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River stopped one after another. However, the rainfall in Huanghuai has increased. From July 4th to 8th, there will be heavy rain or torrential rain in parts of the eastern part of Northwest China, southern North China, Huanghuai, and central and southern parts of Northeast China. Among them, the main rain belt was the northernmost from the 7th to the 8th. On the 9th, the rain band began to set southward; From the 10th to the 11th, it will return to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. It is worth noting that the forecast for the longer period is only a trend first, and the specific details are still to be determined later.
*Attached: Early warning details
(Editor-in-charge/Xiangyu)
*Editor's Note:
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