Friends, since the market index appeared from the low point of 2933.33 points at the bottom of the leopard, it is indeed the same as the predicted trend, the market did not hit a new low again, but tried to return to 3000 points today;
The return of the large-cap index to 3,000 points should be a happy thing for financial consumers in the A-share market, but judging from some signals on the disk, the reality may still be less than expected.
1. Let's talk about the good phenomenon first, the market index has rushed to 3,000 points, the central bank has taken action, and it is very important for the liquor sector to stabilize:
The broad market index was able to hold 2,900 points and began to restart the rebound, and the voice of seven departments including the China Securities Regulatory Commission last weekend was more critical;
If the market index can return to 3,000 points today, the central bank's action yesterday will also play a decisive role in the market;
The news that the central bank intends to borrow treasury bonds in the near future has put obvious pressure on the bond market, the price of long-term treasury bonds has fallen, and the yield on long-term bonds has begun to rise, stabilizing the sentiment of the bond market, and at the same time curbing the speculation of treasury bonds, squeezing out some funds, which is conducive to the rebound of the stock market.
What is the relationship between the bond market and the stock market?
As far as the current stock market is concerned, it can be said that it is a relative relationship, if the bond market is bullish, the continuous rise in the price of the bond market will attract hot money into the market to speculate, which is negative for the stock market.
A large amount of funds flowed into the bond market, and the price of the 30-year treasury bond yield fell below the lower limit controlled by the central bank, which will inevitably cause the central bank to intervene, which is the important significance of the central bank's release yesterday.
At present, the central bank's attitude towards the bond market is just like the previous reason that the exchange rate cannot get out of control around 7.3, so it will not allow long-term bond interest rates to continue to fall, nor will it allow the bond market to continue to speculate.
In fact, no matter how it is defined, the ultimate goal of the central bank is to maintain the stability of interest rates, and at the same time, it is also beneficial to the return of funds in the stock market.
In addition to the role of the central bank, the liquor sector has stopped falling and stabilized and rebounded, which has a significant effect on the index:
When the king of Moutai's market capitalization is replaced by China Mobile, it means that the volatility of the market may usher in greater changes;
Because from the perspective of historical performance, there is a peculiar phenomenon, where the market value surpasses Moutai, these stocks have a high probability of peaking in the short term;
At present, the market capitalization of China Mobile, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, PetroChina, and China Construction Bank are all above Moutai, which are also mainly representatives of high dividend weights, does it mean that these high dividend dividend assets are not far from the top?
There is also a certain amount of truth in saying this, in the past few decades, Moutai's market value has been ranked first, not because there is no other stock price higher than him, nor because no stock market value can surpass him But when the price of a stock is close or surpassed, it is basically a high transfer, and when the market value of a stock surpasses, it will basically pull back, which is also the reason why Moutai has been strong.
Of course, this year's high-dividend style is relatively stable, and there are more institutions, and whether Moutai can return to the first market value still needs to be verified, but the change in style needs to be continuously observed. The first half of the year is a typical bonus style, and it is very likely that there will be some style drift in the second half of the year.
2. Let's talk about a bad phenomenon, it's easy to rush 3000 points, but it will be more difficult to keep 3000 points, do consumers still dare to enter the market?
After the market has walked out of the two consecutive yangs, today's three consecutive yangs is a big test, and it is also at the 3,000-point integer mark, so it may be difficult to hold three thousand points.
Judging by today's market sentiment, there are two signs that are not so good:
First, there is no obvious amplification of the turnover of the two cities today, indicating that there is no incremental capital entry, and there is no amount to rebound in the first two days, but the 3,000 points cannot be held;
Second, today's GEM and the large-market index failed to form a resonant rebound, indicating that the market style is not balanced and the sentiment is not stable enough; If the market index rises, it is enough to pull the Chinese word and the bank, but if the small and medium-sized enterprises want to rise, they must have the funds to dare to make individual stocks;
Today once again out of the weak pattern of the GEM, this is not a good phenomenon, when the GEM or CSI 2000 can rebound with volume, that may be the better time to enter the market;
It is precisely because of this that financial consumers may still be on the sidelines today:
On the one hand, some consumers have overdrawn their funds in advance and have no money left to continue to buy and buy in the market;
On the other hand, there are more counterfeit and shoddy products bought, and many goods are continuously reduced in price after purchase, and consumers cannot return them, nor can they refund one and pay three, so the rights protection cannot be solved, and everyone will deliberately suppress their consumption.
In general, there is no amount of impact 3,000 points, it is recommended that you still remain cautious, those who have already consumed, you can consider holding and waiting, and those who have not yet consumed can only do ultra-short or wait and see.
3. What do you think of the market this afternoon?
(1) For the broad market index, there is no big problem with the index closing in the red today, and the probability of closing is also around 3,000 points. In fact, if there is no amount, it is no longer meaningful whether it closes above 3000 points, as long as the index can be red, it will be fine;
The probability of a sharp dive in the market index in the afternoon is not large, and the central bank's reverse repurchase net withdrawal of more than 280 billion yuan today, but the market index as a whole is quite stable in the morning, indicating that there are still some advantages;
(2) For the gem, there may be a rebound in the afternoon, and the possibility of turning red will be relatively large, after bottoming out yesterday, and continuing to bottom out today, the short-term is constantly testing the support below, and then it may enter the rebound;
Once the GEM enters a stable rebound, then the money-making effect of the entire market may be much better, the individual stock market will be repaired, and the willingness to trade may pick up.
On the whole, the central bank shot, the bond market funds returned to A-shares, the periphery continued to rebound, risk concerns are constantly lifted, A-shares opened in the second half of the year, and the bottom rebounded below 3000 points, which is a new starting point and a new beginning, which requires a little patience.
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