At the end of September 2023, Vietnam made public the scene of reclamation and island building in the South China Sea, and sailed the dredger into Bai Jiao with great fanfare. Once the reef is successfully refilled, how serious will the consequences be?
Why Cypress Reef was invaded by Vietnam
Baijiao is located in the south-central part of the Nansha Islands on the mainland, located in the southeast side of Yinqing Reef 50 nautical miles, is a large atoll with two narrow ends and wide in the middle, trending northeast to southwest, about 23.5 kilometers long, about 3.7 kilometers at the widest point in the middle, only about 1 kilometer at the narrowest point, the shape is like a swan with its head held high, its total reef body area can reach 66.4 square kilometers, and the reef area is 49.5 square kilometers, which is the largest reef area in the Nansha Islands. The interior is a lagoon with an area of about 16.9 square kilometers, the water depth is only 3 meters, in addition, there are large reefs that can be exposed at low tide, of which there is a reef 1.8 meters above the water surface on the northeast side, which is called birdfish ingot, and the southwest reef is 4.6 meters above the water surface, which is called monostyl.
In addition, the Baijiao reef flat is straight and continuous, and with the shallow water of the internal lagoon, the cost of land reclamation is very low. At the same time, it is also very suitable for fishing operations, so it has been one of the important fishing grounds of mainland fishermen since ancient times, and is often called the Haikou line by mainland fishermen because of its special shape.
According to historical records, as early as the Han Dynasty, there were mainland fishermen who operated here, and in 1935, Bai Jiao was named Bagana Reef, and in 1983, it was officially renamed Bai Jiao.
Before the sixties and seventies of the 20th century, because the Baijiao had no foothold, the fishermen of the South China Sea on the mainland would leave after completing their fishing operations, and basically would not stay here for a long time, and the Baijiao was actually controlled by the mainland Taiwan Province at that time, but because the Baijiao was more than 1,700 kilometers away from Kaohsiung City, Taiwan Province, and 1,300 kilometers away from the mainland, it was very difficult to supply materials, so the Baijiao was in a state of no one stationed for a long time.
Since the 70s of the 20th century, with the continuous prominence of the status of the South China Sea and the rapid exploration of oil and gas resources in the South China Sea, it has soon attracted the covetousness of neighboring countries around the South China Sea.
First of all, in 1978, Malaysia was the first to land on the Cypress Reef, but due to the difficulty of defending the reef, Malaysia only set up so-called sovereignty markers on the islands and reefs, and did not actually station troops. In 1987, according to the commission of UNESCO, the mainland began to set up a marine observatory in the Nansha Islands, but two months before the scientific research ship would arrive at Baijiao, Vietnam took the opportunity to forcibly enter Baijiao, and in 1988, one year after Vietnam occupied Baijiao, it invested a lot of money to set up three two-story bunkers in the north, central and south of Baijiao with reinforced concrete, and stationed more than 40 troops in Baijiao for a long time, further strengthening the control of Baijiao.
Vietnam is speeding up the reclamation of Bai Jiao
According to sources, from March 2021 to August 2023, Vietnam is still carrying out reclamation activities on illegally occupied islands and reefs in the South China Sea, among which the expansion of Bai Jiao is particularly rapid, according to satellite photos in June 2022, the eastern side of the originally closed lagoon has been expanded into a deep-water channel for ships, and the number of bunkers has also been expanded to three floors, increasing the number to five.
In September last year, Vietnam also swaggered the dredger into the Bai Reef and carried out reclamation operations in the internal lagoon. The land area of Baijiao has been expanded from the original 0.96 square kilometers to 1.67 square kilometers, and the length of the land is more than 4,000 meters, and it is expected that Vietnam's plan is to build an airport with a runway of 3,000 meters here for take-off and landing of military fighters and large transport aircraft.
What is the special value of Cypress Reef?
The geographical location of Baijiao is very critical, the island and reef are almost in the geometric center of the Nansha sea, the north can be connected to Fiery Cross, Subi, Mischief three artificial islands, radiation Bisheng Reef, Liumen Reef and other islands and reefs illegally occupied by Vietnam, in addition, Baijiao to the south is adjacent to the Zengmu Basin, Wan'an Basin and Sabah Basin, the northeast is only four or five hundred kilometers away from the Lile Basin, according to statistics, the Lile Basin has proven oil reserves of up to 6 billion barrels, natural gas reserves of 55.6 billion cubic meters, and the Zengmu Basin, Sabah Basin, The total oil reserves in the Wan'an Basin have reached nearly 20 billion tons, making it one of the largest untapped oil and gas deposits in the world.
Baijiao is almost in the center of the four major oil and gas basins in the South China Sea, namely Zengmu, Lile, Sabah and Wan'an, which means that Baijiao is the best strategic fulcrum for oil and gas development in the South China Sea. At the same time, it is also the throat route for ships to pass through the Strait of Malacca, pass through the Nansha waters, enter the Zhongsha Islands, and arrive at Northeast Asia and other regions.
As far as the mainland is concerned, the Baijiao Reef, which has military, economic, and shipping value, is the key to the mainland's maintenance of order and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea, and the artificial islands that the mainland is currently building in the Nansha waters are mainly distributed in the central and northern regions, and there are still certain strategic vacancies in the west and south.
On the contrary, if the reef is illegally reclaimed by Vietnam and becomes a large base, it will further contribute to Vietnam's strategic export in the South China Sea. According to the latest report of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Vietnam has reclaimed 9.55 square kilometers of islands in the South China Sea in the past six months, half of the mainland's reclamation area in the South China Sea. In particular, Vietnam's key construction of Bai Jiao has become the fourth largest island in the South China Sea after Mischief Reef, Subi Reef and Fiery Cross Reef, and not only Bai Jiao, Vietnam has carried out reclamation work on the illegally occupied Hongxu Island, Bisheng Reef, Wubi Reef, and Dunqian Sandbar, and has successively renovated ports, lighthouses, radars, aprons and other facilities on the islands and reefs, that is to say, under the construction of Vietnam, the country is forming a defensive system in the South China Sea.
At present, the Philippines is still making frequent moves in waters such as Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, and many people are worried that Vietnam's frequent island-building behavior is likely to further exacerbate uncertainty in the South China Sea and even slow down the progress of the code of conduct in the South China Sea.
However, Vietnam's island-building activities in the South China Sea seem to be very rapid, but in fact, the country's reclamation technology is still relatively backward, and the equipment used cannot meet the requirements of complete mechanization.
What's more, China and ASEAN countries have reached a consensus and completely suspended the reclamation of the South China Sea, and Vietnam's wanton island reclamation in this situation has violated the relevant agreements signed previously. Compared with Vietnam, the mainland's island-building capacity is at the world's leading level, and the mainland's island-building speed will only be faster. Therefore, if necessary, the mainland can also restart the reclamation project of Qiongtai Reef, Huangyan Dao and other islands and reefs, so as to further help the mainland safeguard its rights and interests in the South China Sea.