In the past two days, French President Emmanuel Macron must have been in a heavy mood, as his presidential majority suffered a "Waterloo" in the National Assembly elections, and the votes in the first round of the election were significantly behind the far-right and left-wing groups.
If the far-right National Rally wins a majority in the election, the party's president, Bardeira, who was born in 1995, could become the next French prime minister.
The post-95 "little fresh meat" may become a national level, and this topic has aroused heated discussions among the majority of netizens. (See also the article "Those Outstanding "Young Cadres" in the International Political Arena)
In fact, the early election of the National Assembly is a "big gamble" initiated by Macron.
On June 9, the results of the European Parliament elections were announced, and Macron's Baath Party suffered a crushing defeat in the elections. (See also the article "Another "Gray Rhinoceros" ......)
That night, Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and the early election, betting that the French people were just emotionally venting and that everyone would change their minds. (See also the article "Playing is the heartbeat ......")
On June 12, Macron made a televised speech announcing the dissolution of the National Assembly.
Unexpectedly, this time Macron has a high probability of losing the bet! France, it may really be changing!
Macron lost face.
On June 30, local time, the first round of voting in the "world-watching" French National Assembly election ended.
The results showed that the far-right party National Rally led by Le Pen "came out on top" with 33.2% of the vote. The New Popular Front, the left-wing coalition, followed with 28.1 percent of the vote, while Macron's Baath Party, the presidential majority, received only 21 percent.
Especially in the vote, the two "highest records" made Macron, who had previously "completely disbelieved that the worst would happen".
One is that French voters are enthusiastic, with a turnout of 69.7% in the first round, the highest since the 1986 parliamentary elections.
On the other hand, the National Alliance achieved an all-time high of 33.2 percent of the vote, receiving nearly 11.5 million votes, breaking its record for the number of votes in the first round of the national elections.
The president of the National League, Bardeira (first from left), votes at a polling station in Garche, near Paris, France, on June 30.
The two "highest records" show that a large number of voters voluntarily went to the polls and voted for the "opposition" in order to express their strong dissatisfaction with the current situation in France. Macron is experiencing a heavy and uncontroversial defeat.
The political scene in France has changed dramatically.
From the European Parliament election to the French National Assembly election, it shows that the French political situation has fallen into a serious political rift, and the far-right party National Alliance will most likely become the leader.
Although Macron has said that he will not resign, his political influence on parliament and the government is bound to be greatly weakened, and at most he can only maintain the "co-governance" situation and become a "lame president".
Compared with Macron's constructive and open political philosophy, the National Alliance emphasizes the importance of the nation-state and opposes globalization.
Macron has always been committed to the strategic autonomy of the EU, and wants to lead France to deeply participate in European and world affairs, consolidate France's dominant position in the EU, and make Europe an important pole in the world. (See also this article "I hope Macron will be brave to be himself in the Year of the Dragon")
The National Alliance, led by Le Pen, is the most influential far-right populist party in Europe, and in its early years, its main policy was extremely radical "anti-immigration, anti-globalization".
Since 2017, Le Pen has expanded her voter base in her presidential campaign, gradually downplaying the ultra-populist overtones of the National Alliance, and proposing a more moderate "France First" political platform, with all policies focused on national interests, in short, "be less nosy, be yourself".
As things stand, the National Alliance is bound to become more deeply involved in French political decision-making, which also means that more conservative public policies, more independent foreign policies, and more protectionist economic policies will prevail in France.
Post-95 post-national level? Luis Elliott, the vice-president of the National Alliance, has publicly stated that the goal of the National Alliance is to win a majority of seats in the parliamentary elections and make the party's president, Bardeira, the prime minister of France. It can be said that the victory of the National Alliance in the parliamentary vote means that Bardeira, a political star who combines the halo of "Le Pen's little lion", "Internet celebrity politician" and "post-95 little fresh meat", is likely to "go straight to the green ladder" and become the youngest prime minister of France. Dropped out of school and went into politics.
Bardeira was born in 1995 to an immigrant family in the northern suburbs of Paris. In 2012, at the age of 16, Bardeira joined the National Front (the predecessor of the National Alliance).
Bardeira then went on to study geography at the Sorbonne University in Paris, but after two years he dropped out of school to join politics and gradually approached Le Pen, the center of power of the National Alliance.
Le Pen's "first supporter".
Bardeira was a strong advocate of Le Pen's opposition to immigration, and Le Pen also identified this young man with great potential. He calls himself the "number one supporter" of Le Pen, who affectionately refers to Bardeira as the "little lion."
Marine Le Pen (left) with Jordán Bardeira, the 29-year-old leader of the new National Rally party, is right.
In 2017, Bardeira was appointed spokesperson for the National Front. In 2019, he was elected European parliamentarian and became vice-president of the National League. Since 2022, Bardeira has served as president of the National Alliance, which is committed to pushing Le Pen to win the 2027 presidential election. Some commentators have suggested that Bardeira is a weapon used by the National Alliance to dilute the public's impression of its "far right" and attract young voters.
Or "co-govern France" with Macron.
Since Macron insists that he will complete his presidential term, and Bardeira is likely to become prime minister, the two may face a three-year "co-governance".
Internally, Bardeira has focused on addressing immigration and judicial security, including strengthening immigration restrictions, reinstating the "minimum sentence" and limiting "the possibility of reduced and commuted sentences".
Diplomatically, Bardeira's "Le Pen trace" is obvious, and he has made it clear that he will challenge Macron on international issues, including cutting his contribution to the EU budget, overturning Macron's promise to build a "credible European defense system", and controlling the scale of aid to Ukraine.
These political views that are at odds with Macron seem to indicate that the days of "co-governance" may not be peaceful...... Macron's "last stand"? The second round of voting in the National Assembly elections will take place on 7 July. Macron, who does not want to be a "lame president", must form an alliance with other parties to fight against the far-right group, otherwise he can only accept the outcome of "co-governance" with the National Alliance. On the evening of June 30, local time, Macron changed his previous expression of "non-alignment" and claimed that "the time has come to form a broad alliance with a clear democratic and republican position." Some leaders of Syriza parties have also publicly called for left-wing candidates in various regions to withdraw from running if another candidate is more likely to prevent PN from entering parliament.
The scene of the meeting of the French National Assembly. For the National Alliance, its precise campaign strategy and increasingly moderate platform have also made the world curious about the future of France. Where will the elections take France in six days? Let's wait and see.