The tight capacity pattern is difficult to change, and the price of the European line has risen for 10 consecutive weeks
A snowball column from the revolution in energy
SCFIS Index Rises:
According to the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) released on July 1, the European route index was reported at 5353.02 points, up 12.3% from the previous week and hitting a new high this year.
European routes have risen for 10 consecutive weeks from April 22 to July 1, with a cumulative increase of 151%.
Container Shipping Index Futures Rise:
In line with the trend of the SCFIS index, the EC2408 contract of the container transportation index (European line) listed on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was last reported at 5322.0 points, up 234% since April.
Shipping company price increases:
A number of shipping giants have announced an increase in freight rates in July, such as Denmark's Maersk AG, which has significantly increased the FAK rate, quoting $5,000/$9,000 (20ft/40ft) from the Far East to Northwest Europe.
Freight Trends:
According to the data provided by freight forwarders, the price of a 40-foot large container from Shanghai or Qingdao port to Rotterdam port in the Netherlands in early July was generally around $8,000, and the highest was close to $9,000.
Year-on-year comparison:
In the same period last year (before November 2023), the price of a 40-foot large container on the European route was only about $1,500, and the current price is more than five times that of that time.
Market Analysis:
The industry generally judges that the freight rate has not yet peaked, but it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream capacity to further improve the space.
July and August are the traditional peak seasons for mainland exports to Europe, and the possibility of strong support for freight rates is high.
Supply-side capacity filling may not be completed until the end of 2024, and prices will be difficult to rise and fall unless there is a large contraction on the demand side until then.
Market Concerns:
Some freight forwarders said that at present, some downstream shippers have chosen not to ship, and they are looking forward to the freight rate falling as soon as possible.
$中远海控(SH601919)$ $A.P. MOLLER-MAERSK(AMKBY)$ $东方海外国际(00316)$
Maersk's price adjustment notice is valid for the period, indicating that the high freight rate may be extended to the end of the year.
According to the PSS document imposed by CMA CGM, from June 20, all Asian ports to the Middle East, the Red Sea, India and Pakistan will be subject to a peak season surcharge of US$1,000/TEU or US$2,000/FEU.
@Captain-Captain Nemo Yesterday's 8 lots of short orders and losses, you are not hedging risks, you are hedging profits.
Author: The Energy Revolution
Link: https://xueqiu.com/7659667127/295890248
Source: Snowball
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