COSCO Shipping Holdings has risen for three consecutive days: is it the rise of long power or the game of quantitative funds?
A snowball column from the revolution in energy
At the end of the day, the closing price of COSCO Shipping Holdings stood above 16 again. In the afternoon, I saw several large orders in the transaction details of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, which is the power of medium and long-term upward longs or the power of quantitative funds? Will this force smash down or go long in a group in the later stage?
Futures and overseas shipping stocks have hit new highs, and it is time for Haikong to break through.
Some people say that there is a preview tonight, but I don't believe it. Haikong's performance broke out in the third quarter, and there must be a year-on-year increase of several times. But it's still a bit difficult to get more than 50% in the report. I didn't expect it, and if it was, it was really more than expected, and it just proved that the ship's division took the biggest piece of the cake.
At 16.10, I left a long shadow yesterday, and I have already counted the test plate once. I tried again this morning, and coming up again after falling back should be able to hold steady. It's already July, and it's time for the market to turn around and go up. After the sea control fluctuated back and forth, the long black line of the falling limit was almost digested.
With the current freight index and the price adjustment strategy close to the market price of the shipping company, Haikong should earn more than 300 million yuan a day from July. Earn 10 billion a month, and make a net profit of more than 30 billion in a quarter. Some people say that it is impossible, this year's European line has been running for a long time, and the port blockage has also delayed the shipping schedule. That's because he didn't think it through, and he can reason from the following aspects:
1. This year, the freight rate in South America is so high, and the cargo volume has skyrocketed, COSCO has added fast routes, and has added more than a dozen ships to South America, the volume and price have increased significantly, and this route is quite profitable. The screenshot below is the weekly freight index report released by the Shanghai Aviation Exchange last week, and the freight rate of a small container to South America is higher than that of a large container on the West American route.
2. Shipping companies successfully pushed up freight rates in May and June, and from July 1, the freight rate of the East US route was increased by $2,000 due to the crisis of dock workers' strikes, and the US West and European routes were raised by $1,000-1,200 per large container.
According to the price increase plan on July 1, the freight rate of the US East route will rise from $8,300-8,400 to $10,300-$10,400, becoming the first route with a freight rate of more than 10,000 yuan.
3. The CCFI freight index has been running above 2,000 points since July, and when the quarterly average of CCFI is higher than 2,000 points in history, the net profit of Haikong in a single quarter basically exceeds more than 20 billion. At the beginning of July, it was 2,000 points, and according to the booking rate of the current peak season, the CCFI freight index should be more than 2,500 points by the end of August. This year, the price adjustment of the shipping company is closer to the market, the long-term contract price has also risen, the peak season surcharge has increased more than in 21 years, and the capacity is more than that in 21 or 22 years. For example, in 2023, OOCL took delivery of seven newbuild container vessels with a capacity of 24,188 TEUs. The delivery of these new vessels will not only increase loading capacity, but also help to modernize the technology and configuration of OOCL's fleet, which will enhance the company's cost-effectiveness and market competitiveness.
4. The amount of goods to be shipped in the market is very sufficient, which can be understood from the following information.
Due to the tight space on container liner routes, Indian importers have had to turn to bulk cargo routes to transport cargo, indicating that there is sufficient cargo volume but insufficient container capacity. Companies such as COSCO SHIPPING and Maersk use multi-purpose vessels to meet transportation demand, and multi-purpose vessels are fully loaded and can pull dry bulk cargo on the return trip, indicating that there is a strong demand for cargo. Agricultural traders are also facing the problem of container shortages and have turned to bulk carriers, further confirming the shortage of container space.
In closing, I would like to say that whether you are an industry insider or a professional, you must be in awe of the market. Today, Captain @Captain-Nemo suffered heavy losses on Euroline Container 2504, and @武士刀 also shorted container futures again, why didn't he listen to persuasion? How good it is to use the money from shorting futures to buy a COSCO Shipping Controls ticket and sit on the big ship safely! Long stocks and open short futures orders, not only do not hedge risks, but hedge profits, which is not enough.
$COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (SH601919) $ $ Orient Overseas International (00316) $ $ COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (01919) $ #圆通速递# #顺丰控股# #中远海控#
Author: The Energy Revolution
Link: https://xueqiu.com/7659667127/295962129
Source: Snowball
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