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As everyone knows, the current world political landscape is in the midst of extremely subtle changes, and it can even be said that it can be said that it affects the whole body.
A few days ago, the results of the first round of the French National Assembly election set off a butterfly effect, because judging from the preliminary statistical results, the current French ruling coalition can be said to have lost everything, and this result was far beyond the expectations of French President Macron.
You must know that the reason why Macron dissolved the parliament ahead of schedule and quickly convened the National Assembly election was to preemptively strike.
Judging from the preliminary results of the vote, the far-right National Alliance, which also won a big victory in the previous European Parliament elections, won the most votes, with nearly 34.2% of the votes, followed by the pan-left coalition with 29.1% of the votes, and Macron's ruling coalition, which only received 21.5% of the votes.
This result was an absolute disappointment for Macron, who wanted to part ways with the far-right coalition through early elections, but he did not expect it to backfire and accelerate the rise of the far-right coalition to power.
Although the French National Assembly election will go through two rounds of voting, judging from the current reaction of the French people, Macron is still not optimistic in the second round of voting in a week's time.
Some French media predict that after the election of the National Assembly, the far-right coalition is likely to win about 250 seats, and the pan-left coalition is expected to win about 190 seats, you know, the French parliament only has a total of 577 seats, that is, there are less than 100 seats left for Macron's camp.
Before Macron dissolved the parliament, there were as many as 245 seats in the existing ruling coalition, which is equivalent to losing half of the country and declaring Macron's "defeat".
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In addition, the voter turnout in the first round of the election exceeded 65%, which was the highest turnout in the past 40 years, which means that more and more French people are participating in it and want to change the current situation of the French government, that is, the result of this vote is very popular with the people.
Secondly, Le Pen, the leader of the far-right coalition, won the first round of the election with 58.21% of the vote, which has approached Macron's psychological defense.
So much so that after the end of the first round of voting, Macron chanted that he hoped that voters would choose someone with democratic and republican values.
In other words, Macron wants to win over all the votes except for the far-right coalition with only one purpose, that is, to prevent the far-right coalition from coming to power.
Marine Le Pen
There are even media outlets that the second round of voting on July 7 will not only be a complete defeat for Macron's governing career, but will also be one of the most decisive votes in French history.
If nothing else, the far-right coalition will usher in its own period of power, in which the 28-year-old Bardela, the leader of the far-right coalition, will become the prime minister of France, which is also the youngest prime minister of a major country in the world today.
Of course, President Macron will still hold his position, and as long as he does not resign voluntarily, then Macron will remain in power for three years.
President of the "National Union" Bardra
It's just that the next three years will be very difficult for Macron, because in the face of the far-right coalition becoming the ruling party, Macron will be completely constrained in other aspects in addition to being able to have a certain say at the diplomatic level, that is, the so-called political lame duck.
Once the far-right coalition comes to power, the policy winds in France will change abruptly, and according to the ruling philosophy of the far-right leader Marine Le Pen, France will be re-industrialized, which means that trade protectionism will rise again, and in addition, there will also be a change in attitudes towards Ukraine.
As we all know, Macron has always been a "pro-Ukraine faction", and even once threatened not to rule out the possibility of sending ground combat troops to Ukraine.
The far-right coalition, on the other hand, has always opposed France's massive aid to Ukraine, so once the far-right coalition is in power, the war in Ukraine is likely to end early.
As for the attitude towards China, Macron has always advocated Europe's strategic autonomy, so during his administration, Sino-French relations have developed steadily, especially since this year is the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and France, and bilateral relations between the two countries have continued to warm up.
After the far-right coalition comes to power, Sino-French relations are likely to face challenges, especially at the trade level, and France is likely to follow the example of the United States and start a trade war against China.
At the same time, the news that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will assume the rotating presidency of the European Union in the second half of the year is also like a butterfly flapping its wings, which has an impact on the current world political landscape.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban
As we all know, Hungary is an alternative in the EU, especially in its attitude towards China, Hungary has always behaved relatively moderately, and has repeatedly voted against EU resolutions on sanctions against China.
Hungary was the third stop of the Chinese leader's previous visit to Europe, which shows that the relations between China and Hungary are indeed moving in a more positive direction.
However, it cannot be denied that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has always been a political strongman, and in recent years, he has quite a "right-wing tendency", and even has many similarities with former US President Trump in terms of governing philosophy and strategy.
The reason why the Hungarian prime minister's presidency of the EU in the second half of the year will have a subtle impact on the current international political situation is precisely because his term of office coincides with the US presidential election.
Judging from the current situation in the US election, Trump has a strong intention of re-entering the White House.
Especially after the first round of televised debates, the current US President Joe Biden's performance is so bad that it can even be described as hopeless, and such a Biden will not be able to compete with Trump in subsequent election campaigns.
Although "gerontocracy" has flourished in American politics in recent years, the president of the United States, as the face of the country, cannot always find an old man with Alzheimer's disease to serve as the post, so it is only a matter of time before Biden withdraws from the election.
Looking at the Democratic Party, there are very few who can compete with Trump, and in this case, Trump is likely to be re-elected president of the United States.
And once Trump wins the election, then EU President Orban and Trump will echo each other from afar, making US-EU relations inevitably usher in a new level, which is by no means a good thing for China.
It is foreseeable that in the coming period, both Europe and the United States will continue to maintain a tough attitude towards China, and measures such as imposing tariffs may become commonplace.
Of course, challenges and opportunities have always coexisted, and the earthquake in the European and American political arenas also means that China will usher in more space for development.
Information sources:
2024-07-01 19:49·Global.com The first round of the French parliamentary election is over, and Macron has become the biggest loser?
Original2024-07-01 09:28·Observer.com Polls show that France's far-right parties lead the first round of voting in the National Assembly election, and Macron's coalition is only third
2024-07-01 08:09·Shangguan News Macron lost the bet, and now the consequences are serious
2024-07-01 17:28· Macron lost his bet......
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