Following the US and the EU, India is also going to impose tariffs on China? Modi's new official took office with three fires, and the first fire burned to China? According to Reuters and other foreign media reports on June 29, the Indian government is negotiating whether to impose tariffs on steel imports from China.
In the last fiscal year ending in March, India imported 2.7 million tonnes of steel from China, a figure that doubled from the previous fiscal year, Indian media said. Moreover, in recent months, China's steel exports to India have continued to rise.
Objectively speaking, China and India have such a huge economy, or a developing country, and the amount of 2.7 million tons of steel is not too large. Because India produces about 140 million tons of steel a year, while China produces more than 1 billion tons of steel.
China rigid aluminum products
Compared with these two figures, 2.7 million tons is of course a "small business", because of such a small "small business" in India, it is required to impose tariffs on steel imports from China, but India's domestic steel companies want to take more advantage from the Indian government.
So, will the Modi government, which has just been re-elected, choose to heed the call of Indian steel companies and impose tariffs on Chinese steel? Judging from the current trend, this possibility is relatively small.
First of all, quality determines the market. Considering that India has become the world's second largest steel producer with nearly 100 million tons of steel, if it is ordinary steel, there is obviously no need for Indian companies to import all the way from China. Not to mention that India has taxes on China's steel itself, even if there is zero tariff, long-distance transportation, time costs, etc., are all money.
Therefore, it can almost be concluded that most of the 2.7 million tons of steel imported by India from China are special steel, or steel with relatively high technical content.
Special steel with relatively high technical content
In the past, there was a story on the Chinese Internet that "we are such a big country, but we can't produce ballpoint pen refills", and later TISCO Group developed the special steel used in ballpoint pen refills, and soon got results, and a year to dry the world's decades can not be used up.
Although this matter has now become a joke, it can be confirmed from the side that although the steel industry is a very basic industry in modern society, the more basic it is, the more effort it has. Steel is different from steel, the steel used for building houses is steel, and the steel used for blocking cables on aircraft carriers is also steel, and the technical level of the two is obviously not the same.
At present, China, as the world's largest manufacturing center and a country that produces more than half of the world's steel every year, is undoubtedly leading the world in terms of the quantity and output of special steel.
India has developed rapidly in recent years, and the demand for steel has increased significantly, and in this context, it is not difficult to understand that Indian companies import special steel from China.
A steel mill worker in West Bengal, India, carries forged steel
Moreover, it is foreseeable that it is difficult for India to catch up with India's leading edge in special steel refining technology in the short term, which determines that whether it is imposed or not tariffs, it will not affect the growth of China's steel exports to India. To some extent, the imposition of tariffs on Chinese steel may turn into India's own guilt.
Secondly, from the perspective of the Modi government's governing thinking, in recent years, although the Modi government has played the populist card from time to time and agitated the ideological trend of greater Indianism in India, it has engaged in friction with China from time to time.
However, judging from the Modi government's stance on the Sino-Indian border issue and Sino-Indian bilateral relations over the years of its administration, Modi knows very well what he wants.
To put it bluntly, touching China and provoking China from time to time is all aimed at promoting Prime Minister Modi's reforms and diverting India's domestic contradictions.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi
For example, when the epidemic was raging around the world, when India's domestic mortality rate was very high, they stirred up trouble at the border; Another example is that when the election was approaching, the Modi government deliberately took a hard line on China.
On the contrary, although the United States and Western countries have called on the world to contain China's electric vehicle industry in order to suppress China's development, and even deliberately followed the old road of traditional automobiles, preaching that new energy vehicles are not the only development trend in the future, India insists on developing the new energy vehicle industry and says that it will build itself into a new new energy vehicle manufacturing center.
All of this shows one thing, that is, Modi, the "iron pincer" prime minister, has his own political ambitions and wants to drive India's economic development and promote India's reform. They have targeted some unfriendly behaviors in Sino-Indian relations in order to escort domestic economic reforms, not to oppose them for the sake of opposition.
In this case, in the context of India's soaring domestic demand for steel and India's own steel manufacturers are unable to produce all kinds of special steel needed for India's development in the short term, the imposition of tariffs on China's steel exports to India is not to embarrass China, but to add to India's economic growth. This is clearly not the outcome Modi wants.
Busy Chinese ports
To sum up, although those greedy Indian steel companies, has been calling for tariffs on steel imports from China for a period of time, but the Indian government has not responded positively, the so-called tariffs, remains to be seen, at least in India to master the technology required for various special steel, to raise their own smelting level to the same as China, the probability of not imposing tariffs, is still quite large.
Of course, there are still uncertainties. Because although Modi has political ambitions, India has its own national situation of fierce partisan struggle, especially after Modi was re-elected as prime minister, his Bharatiya Janata Party lost its absolute advantage in the Indian parliament, and it needs to form a cabinet by forming alliances with other small parties.
This shows that Modi and the BJP's support in India has been challenged.
In the usual style of Prime Minister Modi, when approval ratings are insufficient, or when domestic reforms are in trouble, Modi is likely to boost his approval ratings by being tough on the outside world to boost his own approval ratings.
Modi and supporters interact
And in India's political life, there seems to be no more effective way to drum up populist sentiment than to hype up India's toughness on China. In this sense, whether India will eventually impose tariffs on China will also be affected by its domestic political struggles.
To sum up, from the perspective of the economy itself, and even Modi's political ideals, there is a high probability that tariffs on Chinese steel will not pass; However, considering that the support of Modi and the BJP has declined, it cannot be ruled out that Modi will deliberately stumble in Sino-Indian relations and impose tariffs on Chinese steel in order to regroup. Therefore, we must have a bottom-line mindset and be ready to accept the recruitment at any time, so as to respond to all changes.