In the first half of the year, the "report card" of the top 100 real estate companies was released.
The good news is that the sales performance and market transactions of the top 100 real estate companies have shown marginal stabilization.
CRIC data shows that the performance of the top 100 real estate companies in June increased by 36.3% month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline was 17 percentage points narrower than that of the previous month.
At the same time, new home transactions in June increased by 2% month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year narrowing was 2 percentage points.
However, in the stage of deep adjustment of the real estate market, some new changes have taken place in the camp of real estate companies, and many real estate companies have achieved echelon jumps in the first half of the year.
Compared with the same period last year, the ranking of the top 5 real estate companies in full-caliber sales has undergone subtle changes, and China Overseas Real Estate has replaced Vanke to rank second in the industry. The overall change of the TOP5 is not large, the pattern of the head real estate enterprises has been basically stable, and the pattern of the TOP20 real estate enterprises may face a new round of "reshuffle".
The industry as a whole is facing challenges, but judging from the performance of real estate companies in the first half of 2024, the overall stability of the pattern of the TOP20 real estate enterprises has ushered in a new "entrant".
From the perspective of full-caliber sales amount, 7 of the top 20 real estate companies have declined, 9 have risen in ranking, and another 4 have remained the same as in the first half of last year. Both the TOP10 and TOP20 have new entrants.
Specifically, Country Garden dropped from 6th in the first half of 2023 to 16th in the first half of 2024, making it the top 20 real estate companies with the most declines in the rankings. You must know that in the first half of 2022 and the first half of 2021, Country Garden ranked first.
Country Garden's fall out of the TOP10 also means that the ranking of the top 10 real estate companies has also undergone subtle changes, and Yuexiu Real Estate has risen 4 places compared with the first half of last year to enter the top 10.
In addition, Longfor Group dropped three places in the ranking, but it is still in the top 10 ranks.
Among the top 20 real estate companies in terms of full-caliber sales, Poly Real Estate and China Construction One Product have newly entered the list, among them, the largest increase in the ranking is China Construction One Product in 20th place, an increase of 22 places from the first half of last year.
In the list of sales trading amounts, the TOP5 real estate companies ushered in a reshuffle.
Compared with the first half of 2023, China Merchants Shekou fell out of the top 3 in terms of trading amount, while Greentown ranked 3rd with a sales volume of 126.51 billion yuan. Vanke, on the other hand, fell out of the TOP3, dropping two places from the first half of last year to No. 4.
Among the top 20 real estate companies in terms of trading value, Poly Real Estate, China Construction Yipin and Xincheng Holdings replaced China Evergrande, CIFI Group and Midea Real Estate in the first half of 2023 and became the TOP20 "new entrants".
From the perspective of the nature of real estate enterprises, there are 5 private enterprises in the top 20 real estate enterprises in the full-caliber sales amount list, namely Longfor Group, Binjiang Group, Country Garden, Sunac China and Xincheng Holdings, and 3 mixed-ownership enterprises such as Vanke, Greentown and Gemdale, and the remaining 12 are central state-owned enterprises, accounting for 60%.
Typical private enterprises, such as Longfor and Binjiang, with keen market insight, focused deep cultivation strength and excellent product strength, bucked the trend in the industry reshuffle stage and achieved a jump in the echelon. For example, Binjiang Group jumped 2 places to 8th in the industry in the list of full-caliber sales amount in the first half of the year, while Longfor jumped 3 places to 8th place in the list of trading amount.
In the first half of 2024, there will be only 5 real estate companies with full-caliber sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, a decrease of 1 from the first half of last year.
This year, the first batch of 100 billion real estate companies only appeared from January to May.
At that time, the full-caliber sales of Poly Development, China Overseas Real Estate and Vanke Real Estate exceeded 100 billion, and the first batch of 2 100 billion real estate companies in 2023 appeared from January to March, and from January to May last year, there were 6 100 billion real estate companies. Looking further back, in 2021, the first batch of 100 billion real estate companies appeared in the first two months.
In fact, since the first half of 2022, the number of 100 billion real estate companies from January to June in the past three years has been stable within 10, and there are 8 from January to June 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 58% compared with 2021, and the number of 100 billion real estate companies in the first half of 2023 will be further reduced to 6.
From the perspective of the number of 10 billion real estate companies, there will be 46 in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 40% from the same period last year, and a decrease of 63% from the peak in the first half of 2021.
In fact, in the current market environment, real estate companies are no longer only based on scale, but instead pursue more stable and high-quality development.
At the 2023 results conference, except for Yuexiu Real Estate, Midea Real Estate, Binjiang Group, and Greentown China, which clarified their sales targets for 2024, the rest of the listed real estate companies are more cautious about their sales targets for 2024, and most of them judge that they will remain at the average level in recent years.
From the perspective of the real estate companies that have announced sales targets, the average target completion rate of the six real estate companies in the first half of the year was 41.3%, of which the target completion rate of Poly Real Estate and Binjiang Group was more than 50%.
At present, the overall sales of the top 100 real estate companies in the first half of the year continued to bottom out, and it will take time for market confidence and expectations to recover.
It is worth noting that since May, the market has shown a weak recovery trend due to the continuous favorable policies from the central to the local government, coupled with the increase in the enthusiasm of real estate companies to launch the market, the monthly performance of the top 100 real estate companies has achieved month-on-month growth.
The sales volume of the top 100 real estate enterprises was 438.93 billion yuan, an increase of 36.3% month-on-month.
From the perspective of corporate performance, nearly sixty percent of the top 100 real estate companies achieved month-on-month growth in June, and nearly three-thirds of real estate companies achieved year-on-year growth in monthly performance. For example, China Overseas Real Estate saw a month-on-month increase of 136.5% in June, with a full-caliber sales amount of 46.6 billion yuan, ranking first among the top 100 in monthly sales, a new high in the past year.
In addition, Poly Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, Binjiang Group, China Jinmao, Yuexiu Real Estate, China Railway Construction, Poly Real Estate and other enterprises have also achieved a year-on-year increase in monthly performance.
At present, the market is still in the cycle of releasing stock demand, and the current supply and transaction have basically fallen to a stage low, and the property market is likely to continue to stabilize, and the sales of some real estate companies will also be restored.
It should be noted that the current recovery momentum of the property market is still insufficient, and more favorable policies and time are needed to restore the confidence and expectations of home buyers, and corporate sales will still face severe challenges in the future.
The overall market trend is still full of uncertainty, but there are also some positive signals in the first half of the year, such as the pattern of the head real estate companies is basically stable, and the TOP20 real estate companies are still able to buck the trend to achieve echelon jump.
The short- and medium-term market conditions are still uncertain, and enterprises still need to ensure the supply of goods as much as possible and do a good job in marketing to promote the decentralization of project transactions, while continuing to pay attention to product upgrades and iterations, strengthen product strength, and strengthen development advantages in the increasingly intensified industry competition.