Lead
September coincides with the peak transaction season of the "Golden Nine", but the enthusiasm of real estate companies to launch is average, although the absolute volume is not as average as the monthly average in the second quarter, it is basically the same as the monthly average in the first quarter. According to CRIC research, 28 key cities are expected to add 7.03 million square meters of new commercial residential supply area in September, down 4% month-on-month and 59% year-on-year, and the absolute volume is significantly lower than the monthly average in the second quarter, which is basically the same as the monthly average of 6.99 million square meters in the first quarter. In terms of energy levels, only the first-tier cities will increase by 10% month-on-month, and the third- and fourth-tier cities will nearly halve the month-on-month comparison.
From the perspective of supply structure, it presents a supply structure based on rigid demand and improvement, supplemented by high-end; The proportion of the main city, suburbs and suburbs is 55%, 30% and 15%. Predicting September, we believe that the transaction volume in September is likely to increase slightly month-on-month and decline year-on-year.
01
Scale: Supply in September 28 fell by 4%
Flat Q1 2024 average, first-line contrarian increase of 10%
September coincides with the peak transaction season of the "Golden Nine", but the enthusiasm of real estate companies to launch is average, although the absolute volume is not as average as the monthly average in the second quarter, it is basically the same as the monthly average in the first quarter. According to CRIC research, 28 key cities are expected to add 7.03 million square meters of new commercial residential supply area in September, down 4% month-on-month and 59% year-on-year, and the absolute volume is significantly lower than the monthly average in the second quarter, which is basically the same as the monthly average of 6.99 million square meters in the first quarter.
In terms of energy levels, only the first line maintained a positive increase of 10% month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year decline was lower than that of the second and third lines. Beijing is expected to supply 500,000 square meters in September, the second highest absolute volume of the year, and it is expected that more than 3,700 houses will enter the market, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of about 10%. Shanghai and Shenzhen have maintained a year-on-year decline, taking Shenzhen as an example, affected by the current downturn market environment, the pace of real estate companies is expected to decline steadily, and the supply may be less than 3,000 sets.
Second-tier supply fell slightly by 5% month-on-month and by more than 6% year-on-year, and differentiation continued to intensify. In absolute terms, the monthly supply of Xi'an and Changsha exceeded 500,000 square meters. Judging from the changes, Ningbo, Suzhou, Xi'an, Changsha, Chongqing, Xiamen, etc., which increased month-on-month this month, of which Ningbo and Suzhou doubled. Suzhou is mainly due to the low base of the previous month, which continued to decline year-on-year; Ningbo ushered in a concentrated market, and the cumulative year-on-year decline narrowed to less than 3%. The remaining cities basically maintained a year-on-year decline, even Chengdu, Hangzhou, etc., which were more popular in the early stage, also saw a slight pullback in supply this month, and the enthusiasm of real estate companies to launch was not high.
The supply of the third and fourth lines has dropped significantly, with a year-on-year decline of more than 4 percent, and the supply of five key cities in the Pearl River Delta has generally declined.
02
Structure: The supply has just been reformed, supplemented by high-end
The proportion of improved supply in major cities such as Hangrong has increased significantly
From the perspective of the distribution of each product grade in the supply structure, the proportion structure of rigid demand, improvement and high-end in key cities is 45%, 42% and 13%, showing a supply structure dominated by rigid demand and improvement, supplemented by high-end.
From the perspective of cities, (1) Quanzhou, Nanning, Shenzhen, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Jinan, Xuzhou, Ningbo, Chongqing, Changsha, Beijing, Wuhan and other cities account for more than 50% of the supply of rigid demand products. (2) Xiamen, Zhangzhou, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Suzhou, and Qingdao still take improvement as the main force of supply, accounting for more than 6 percent. (3) Kunming and Xi'an just demand and improved supply accounted for "no equal", both of which were more than 4%. (4) The proportion of high-end products in Fuzhou and Wuxi has increased significantly, reaching 70% and 50%.
From the perspective of the regional distribution of each project in the supply structure, the proportion structure of the main city, suburbs and suburbs of key cities is 55%, 30% and 15%, and the supply focus of this month is still concentrated in the main urban area, followed by the suburbs and the least.
In terms of cities, (1) Xiamen, Zhangzhou, Hefei, Kunming, Chongqing, Xi'an, Nanning, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Zhengzhou, Fuzhou and other major cities accounted for more than 7 percent. (2) Quanzhou, Jinan, Beijing, Qingdao, Changzhou, Changsha and Ningbo are mainly suburban projects, accounting for more than 5%. (3) The supply structure of Nanjing, Guangzhou and other cities takes into account the main city and the suburbs. (4) A few cities such as Tianjin, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other suburbs will continue to increase supply, which is expected to cause inventory backlog.
03
Prediction: The scale of the new project of "Golden Nine" is flat, and the marketing force is strong
Transactions will increase slightly seasonally month-on-month
The first-line improvement disk heat is maintained
After taking stock of the supply in September, combined with the transaction characteristics of the current cities, we can make a simple prediction of the market outlook: the supply in September will continue to be stable at a low level, which will be the same as the monthly average in the first quarter of 2024.
Combined with the regions where different cities launched in September, we make a reasonable estimate based on the historical de-industrialization of each regional plate since 2024, and we can see that the expected de-escalation rate in September 2024 is 26%, down 2 percentage points month-on-month and 12 percentage points year-on-year, which is stable and declining compared with the market heat in the second quarter of 2024.
The differentiation of different cities is expected to continue, which can be roughly divided into the following types of typical cities:
In the first category, core first- and second-tier cities such as Shanghai, Chengdu, and Hangzhou are among the most popular, with a removal rate of more than 4%. Shanghai, Chengdu, Hangzhou and other new policies on the market to boost the effect of decreasing, in August, visits, subscriptions have dropped to varying degrees, but even if the heat turns, the overall rate of removal is still maintained at a high level of more than 4%. It is worth paying attention to Chengdu, the current de-conversion rate is still at a high level, and the supply is expected to improve quality and shrink in September, and it is expected that 15 projects will be launched, including many high-end improvement projects with high attention such as Xipai Jiaozi and Yuexiu Tianyue Yuncui Phase II, which are also expected to help the market "heat preservation".
The second category is Changsha, Wuxi, Zhangzhou, etc., relying on 1-2 hot disks to enter the market to increase market heat. Judging from the CRIC survey data, the expected de-conversion rate in September in 3 cities is also at a high level of more than 4 percent, but mainly due to the push strategy of real estate companies to "determine production by sales", there will basically only be 1-2 marketable real estate projects entering the market to ensure short-term market heat, in fact, for most projects for sale, the demand for housing is still in a weak situation, purchasing power is downgraded, and it is difficult to repair in the short term.
The third category is Ningbo, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, etc., or due to the supply volume or continuous optimization of the supply structure, the market heat is expected to recover at a low level, increasing month-on-month, better than the monthly average in the second quarter. Among them, although the supply of Zhengzhou and Wuhan has declined, the overall supply is concentrated in the main urban areas of rigid demand projects, catering to the needs of the main home buyers; Ningbo is mainly due to the phased increase in supply, which doubled year-on-year, and the overall transaction heat is expected to rebound at a low level.
The fourth category is the weak second-tier such as Kunming, Jinan, Chongqing, Xiamen, etc., the removal rate is less than 2% and the same period last year, and the overall market heat continues to be low. Xiamen has strengthened the proportion of the supply of improved products in the main city this month, but there is no significant improvement in the removal rate due to the location problem of the individual plate, while Chongqing and Kunming are still dominated by the supply of rigid demand and renovation projects in the main urban areas this month, but the second-hand houses are favored by the rigid demand customers due to their low total price and wide choice, and continue to divert the rigid demand customers, which also makes the expected removal rate of the two cities in September less than 20%. Jinan is mainly due to the mismatch between supply and demand, which increases the proportion of supply of rigid demand projects in the suburbs, but in fact, it has a general effect on the promotion of decentralization. In fact, for this kind of market, unless real estate companies can strengthen their marketing efforts and attract customers at low prices, it is difficult for the overall transaction to perform well.
Overall, the supply in September continued to be stable at a low level, the same as the monthly average in the first quarter of 2024, and the enthusiasm of real estate companies to launch the market is average, but because the launch is still dominated by the main urban area, the overall transaction is likely to continue to rise slightly, with a slight increase month-on-month and a year-on-year decline.
At present, although the core first- and second-tier Shanghai, Chengdu, Hangzhou, etc., are also facing problems such as the diminishing effect of the new policy on the market, thanks to the continuous optimization of the supply structure, the market performance will continue to run at a high level in the short term, and for the vast majority of weak second- and third-tier cities, the de-conversion rate is more and more significantly affected by the supply structure and the degree of profit concession of real estate enterprises. (Source: CRC Research Center)