On Tuesday, United States time, the performance of ASML, a Netherlands lithography machine company that announced its financial report on the same day, "exploded", and its stock price fell 16.26%, the largest one-day decline in nearly 26 years.
Dragged down by ASML, U.S. chip stocks fell collectively, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 5.28%.
How loud ASML's "thunder" sound, just look at the third quarter results announced by ASML on the same day. Sales and gross margin were in line with expectations, but orders fell 53% sequentially and less than half of market expectations.
In desperation, the company had to lower its sales target for next year.
The reason for the "thunder" has been found, but why is there such a sharp drop in the number of orders? The reason is to ask the Netherlands government, why the government restricts the export of lithography machines to China.
You know, ASML is the face of Netherlands, and it can also be said to be a "national treasure". However, not only does it not support "national treasure" enterprises, but it also wants to cut off an important channel for the export of its products, does the Netherlands government want to cut off ASML's future?
Realistically speaking, the Netherlands government also does not want to indictate ASML for selling lithography machines to China.
China's market is not a little bit, and China's market is not a year or two.
However, how can the Netherlands government, which has no backbone, resist the "black hand" behind it - United States.
In order to suppress China's high-tech and Chinese enterprises, the United States asked Netherlands to put pressure on ASML to restrict the export of lithography machines to China.
So, all the pressure was transmitted to Asmir. ASML does not have broad shoulders, how can it withstand a hegemonic country like United States?
As a result, ASML became the real "scapegoat".
"Scapegoating" doesn't matter, the enterprise is also "scapegoating" if it wants efficiency. Without a market like China, it is no wonder that ASML's order volume has not fallen sharply.
It can only be said that the white flag of the government is easy to raise, and the white flag of the enterprise is closely linked to economic benefits, and not only now, but also more than this.
It can be expected that ASML will lose its share in the Chinese market by no means the part restricted by the Netherlands government, and other parts that are not restricted will be lost sooner or later.
China's substitution products are gradually increasing, and once China's product substitution rate reaches a certain level, AMES may withdraw from the Chinese market entirely.
It is difficult to predict what kind of situation AMES will face when it has completely withdrawn from the Chinese market.
A fact worth facing up to is that China will be stuck by the United States, so ASML can cut off the supply of certain lithography products to Chinese companies at the request of the Netherlands government, not that the Chinese do not have the spirit of innovation, not that the Chinese cannot make it, but that China ignores it.
It doesn't matter if you ignore it, as long as you wake up, according to the innovative spirit of Chinese enterprises and employees, in a few years, you will inevitably surpass United States, and naturally surpass Netherlands and Ames.
When Chinese companies make breakthroughs in the research, development and manufacturing of lithography machines, what is left for Ames is loneliness.
The actual situation is that China has made a lot of breakthroughs in the production of low-end lithography machines, and is moving towards the middle and high-end.
Three years, five years, or one year, two years, anyway, it won't be too long, and most of the lithography machines produced by ASML will be able to be produced in China.
For ASML, the share of the Chinese market will become smaller and smaller, and the small is negligible.
ASML, which has lost the Chinese market, is destined to "explode" in performance. At that time, even if you want to return to the Chinese market, it depends on whether Chinese companies are willing to accept it.
Objectively speaking, ASML is also very reluctant to have such an ending today, and he is unwilling to make enemies with China. How can any enterprise be afraid of more business and more profits.
However, the Netherlands government is too weak and incompetent, too backboneless. However, as long as there is a little backbone, it will not allow the country's "trump card" enterprises to have a serious "thunderstorm" in performance.
We can sympathize with ASML, but we can't tolerate ASML, and not providing mid-to-high-end lithography machines to Chinese companies is indeed the result of United States pressure and Netherlands government pressure, but for Chinese companies, it is ASML that does not provide lithography machines, and it is naturally ASML that needs to fight back.
From this point of view, ASML's performance is "thunderous", and it is not wronged at all.
If ASML loses the Chinese market, it will lose half of its life, and it will not be able to find a way to continue its life from other countries.