Yole: This automotive chip LiDAR track is the first in China

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Source: Content compiled from Yole

The global automotive lidar market is expected to grow from $538 million in 2023 to $3,632 million by 2029, registering a CAGR of 38% during 2023-2029. While in 2022 we were at the crossroads of the PC and LCV markets versus the robotaxi market, in 2023, the PC and LCV markets are now clearly dominant.

The first robotaxi services were launched in August 2016 in Singapore by NuTonomy, and the first steps were taken in 2017 with the entry of Waymo and Cruise, which began operations in Phoenix, Arizona and San Francisco, California, respectively. Since then, we've seen Chinese companies such as Didi, AutoX, and Baidu enter the market. All of these companies have opened new services in cities around the world, putting the lidar market for robotaxis far ahead of the lidar market for passenger cars.

But in 2023 and 2024, after a series of events, Waymo and Cruise have significantly slowed down their activities. This has a direct impact on the robotaxi market. This could also affect the long-term market, as companies need to regain the trust of the public.

In 2023, the robotaxi market size was $124 million, while the PC and LCV markets were valued at $414 million. The passenger car market is more than three times larger than the robotaxi market and has seen a real take-off.

Since 2018, we have monitored almost 200 design-win cases. Of these, 124 are scheduled to launch in 2024 or later, with nearly 90% coming from Chinese OEMs. Chinese OEMs are clearly pushing to integrate LiDAR into their vehicles. While EU or United States OEMs limit LiDAR to Class F, Chinese OEMs are introducing Class D cars. In 2023, the first C-segment car is already being monitored. These cars are much cheaper and produce more than F-Class cars, so LiDAR is also produced at a higher level. This has led to a significant drop in the price of LiDAR.

RoboSense 和禾赛目前明显处于领先地位

The automotive lidar (PC&LCV and robotaxi) ecosystem is still quite large, with a total of 44 companies monitored. Some are already in mass production, while others have less lidar activity or are still in the R&D phase and are developing the next generation of lidar. In the robotaxi market, there are very few players that generate significant revenue.

Hesai controls the market with a 73% market share, as their lidar can be found in most robotaxis, such as Cruise, Aurora, Apollo, Didi, Pony.ai, and AutoX. In the PC&LCV market, the situation is rapidly evolving and has changed again compared to last year.

Since Seyond (formerly Innovusion) only worked with Nio, they have been surpassed by RoboSense and Hesai. Seyond is now in third place. In 2023, RoboSense and Hesai dominate the market as they can find almost 460,000 LiDARs on the road. This accounts for more than 60% of total LiDAR shipments in 2023.

It is expected that in 2024, Hesai and Suteng Juchuang will continue to lead the passenger car LiDAR market and occupy the top two positions. The biggest win for these companies is winning design orders from global OEMs, which will prove the robustness of their technology.

Increases in production and technological progress have lowered the average selling price

On the technology side, only one of the four categories we focus on is expected to remain roughly the same over the next decade. In the other three categories, we can see significant developments in imaging technology, emitter types, and types of photodetectors used. Wavelength is the only factor that remains stable.

By 2024, near-infrared (NIR) wavelengths (905 / 940nm) are expected to account for 90% of the volume of LiDAR in passenger vehicles. The ratio between NIR and shortwave infrared (SWIR) is expected to remain similar over the next decade. In terms of imaging technology, rotating mirror-based hybrid solid-state LiDAR dominates and is expected to account for 66% of the volume in 2024, followed by MEMS-based LiDAR at 32%.

The share of rotating mirror-based LiDAR should still be 52% (by volume) over the next decade. The MEMS share is expected to drop to 6%, but the main difference may be the advent of flash LiDAR, which could account for 37% of shipments over the next decade. This change is related to changes in light emitters and photodetectors. In fact, multi-junction-based VCSEL arrays are rapidly improving, and when combined with SiPMs or SPADs, they will be able to provide all-solid-state LiDAR with no moving parts. LiDAR manufacturers are now using higher shipments and new technologies to reduce the cost of LiDAR.

In 2023, the price of LiDAR in China could be less than $500. We're also hearing more and more about FMCW LiDAR, competing with dTOF LiDAR. FMCW LiDAR is just emerging, and manufacturers are currently targeting niche applications such as metrology or defense.

In these applications, price is not too much of a hurdle for customers. In the automotive sector, FMCW LiDAR is not expected to be available until 2027/2028. There is a need to establish and stabilize supply, and to solve many challenges related to computing, thermal management, or integration.

Reference Links

https://www.yolegroup.com/product/report/lidar-for-automotive-2024/?utm_source=PR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PR_Automotive_LiDAR_Comprison_YOLEGROUP_Oct2024