Reuter
A container terminal at the port of Incheon in South Korea, where a truck travels between containers
South Korea's exports will grow for the 12th consecutive month in October, while inflation is likely to rise at its fastest pace in nearly a decade as energy and commodity prices soar, a Reuters survey showed.
According to the median forecast of the survey of 14 economists, outbound shipments increased by 27.0% year-on-year, up from 16.7% recorded in September.
Société Générale's Oh Suk-tae said: "Exports are still supported by demand for semiconductors, but the lack of (or even) further acceleration could be evidence of a supply bottleneck. ”
Last week's data showed that exports in the first 20 days of October increased by 36.1% year-on-year, of which exports of semiconductors and petroleum products increased by 23.9% and 128.7% respectively.
From October 1 to 20, overall exports to major trading partners also continued to expand, with exports to China, the United States and the European Union increasing by 30.9%, 37.1% and 42.1% respectively.
Economists also saw in Thursday's survey that South Korea's total imports in October rose 40.1 percent year-on-year. This compares to 31.0% in September.
"We expect the trade surplus to decline in October, mainly due to higher imports ... Because the recent spike in energy prices could support imports," Oh said.
The government will release full-month trade data on Monday at 9 a.m. local time (0000 GMT).
In the same Reuters survey, 12 economists expect the consumer price index (CPI) to rise 3.2 percent this month from a year earlier, the fastest gain since January 2012 and up from 2.5 percent in September.
Park Sung-woo, an economist at DB Financial Investment, said: "Due to the soaring energy prices... And consumer inflation will rise due to government subsidies for telephone bills, which were lower in base last year. ”
"Despite the reduction in the oil tax, CPI growth will remain high in the fourth quarter due to upward pressure on winter energy prices," he said.
South Korea has decided to temporarily reduce taxes on major petroleum products by 20 percent within six months to mitigate the impact of soaring energy prices.
Some 17 economists also estimated that industrial output fell by 0.7 percent in September from August.