The energy crisis born in Europe continues to deepen, and in today's globalized world, it is sweeping the world. Including the EU-27, the United Kingdom, Brazil and India, more than 30 countries around the world have been affected by the energy crisis. Among them, the British gasoline was robbed, the Brazilian power grid collapsed, and the Indian power industry also ushered in a "perfect storm"...
Affected by the European energy crisis, natural gas has recently become one of the "king of commodity price increases" in the world. Market data shows that by the end of August this year, the price of natural gas in Europe has soared 10 times in 14 months. In addition, Asia has also soared 6 times in the past year, and even the United States, one of the largest natural gas exporters, has also increased the price of natural gas futures by 2 times year-on-year.
With the spread of the energy crisis, in addition to natural gas, the price of oil, coal and other energy sources is also soaring. According to foreign media analysis, the crisis highlights the challenge of Europe's shift from traditional petrochemical energy to renewable energy. It is worth mentioning that after Brexit, the situation in the UK in this crisis may be even more severe than that of other European countries.
Due to the soaring price of natural gas, British energy companies have been greatly affected, and the country has been robbed of gasoline because of the "energy shortage", which has now brought a chain reaction to the country's food industry and supply chain. If this problem is not resolved as soon as possible, the country's economy is likely to have a more serious problem.
After the soaring price of natural gas, people began to turn their attention to coal and oil. However, global commodities trading firm Trafigura believes that the current supply of oil cannot keep up with the rapid pace of demand, and oil prices are expected to continue to rise in the future. On Tuesday (October 5), the market showed that US oil prices have risen to a new seven-year high.
Co-director of the Tokj Oil Deal believes that natural gas prices in Europe will be difficult to fall this winter, and if the winter temperature is lower than ever, the global energy gap may continue to widen. It is worth noting that the energy crisis, which originated in Europe, has now begun to spread to other emerging market economies.
On Tuesday, foreign media reported that Brazil was also unfortunately "recruited". It is reported that due to the severe drought, Brazil's hydroelectric power system and the collapse, if the country does not increase the import of electricity from Uruguay, Argentina and other countries, then the country may be forced to start restricting electricity supply in the next step.
As the largest economy in South America, Brazil previously relied on hydropower for 60% of its electricity. However, due to the abnormal weather this year, the severe drought has caused the water level of the reservoir to drop, and the hydropower generation is no longer stable. Brazil has started up natural gas generators in order to alleviate the problem of grid collapse, which is bound to lead to higher gas prices.
In addition to Brazil, India, which is also one of the "BRICs", is not optimistic about the current situation. India is facing a different power crisis than Brazil. India's official data show that as of September 29, 16 of the country's 135 coal-fired power plants have "zeroed" coal stocks, and more than 80% of the power plants have coal stocks that cannot support a week; more than half of the stocks are less than 3 days.
The reason for this is that the country's coal production has not kept pace with the sharp surge in demand, and the price of imported coal is too high for Indian companies to bear, resulting in a widespread shortage of coal in power companies. As a result, Nomura Securities India economist Aurora Deep Nandi said the Indian power sector is facing a "perfect storm.".
Text | Lu Shuoyi Title | Xu Xiaobing Figure | Lu Wenxiang | Lu Shuoyi