Source: China Economic Network
On July 9, Perfect World released its 2021 semi-annual performance forecast, and the net profit attributable to the mother in the first half of the year ranged from 230 million yuan to 270 million yuan. In the past many years, Perfect World has never had a negative growth in the performance of the report, and this rare and abrupt situation is worth paying attention to. However, from the perspective of the whole year, the report is not good and not enough to be afraid, the company's fundamentals are still good, the core competition in research and development is still distinct, the new product "Dream New Immortal" has a bright performance, and the "Phantom Tower" with explosive appearance is on the way, there is a greater probability that it will boost performance in the second half of the year, and this year's annual performance can still be expected.
Specifically, first of all, the year-on-year decline in net profit reported by Perfect World is related to the epidemic. Last year, the epidemic brought a wave of dividends to the game industry, and at that time, Several new products such as Perfect World's "New Laughing Pride Jianghu" mobile game and "New God Demon Continent" mobile game were just launched, which was favorable at the right time and place, resulting in a significant increase in performance and a high base. Now that the epidemic has steadily resumed production, the user base has declined compared with it.
Secondly, it is related to the rhythm of Perfect World products. In the first half of the year, although Perfect World launched 4 new games, the blockbuster "Fantasy New Immortal" mobile game and the "God of War Relics" mobile game were launched at the end of the financial reporting period, and the product promotion fee was included in the current period, but the product revenue was deferred to the next financial reporting period, resulting in financial data being more reflected in the expenditure side.
In this case, the main revenue of Perfect World in the first half of the year is mainly the products operated by the existing operation, and the new tour is not in the stage, from the perspective of revenue, Perfect World is just in a transition period.
(Perfect World has never had a negative growth in the report)
The last reason is that Perfect World adjusted its overseas business in the first half of the year, highlighted the benefits, optimized the deployment, and paid a one-time price of 270 million yuan for this purpose, which can be described as a hero's broken wrist, and also became the biggest reason for the impact on the performance of this report.
The above are the three reasons why Perfect World's performance forecast appears to be abrupt. It can be seen that Perfect World was quite unhappy in the first half of the year, compared with the growth trend of previous years, the profit open source encountered difficulties in the short term, and encountered the impact of a single event such as overseas adjustment.
Although the performance is not good, in the author's opinion, the future of Perfect World is still clear, and the future is still promising.
First of all, from the perspective of industry attributes and competitive environment, the online game industry is spiritual and cultural consumption, which is a rigid demand for fixed groups. With the improvement of living standards, cultural consumption is becoming more and more important, especially for young people, games are an important way to socialize, with a stable core user population.
From the perspective of the industry, the competition between manufacturers is fierce, there is an obvious head effect, and improving research and development capabilities to make high-quality games has become the core competitiveness of manufacturers. The game industry is now in a big wave, which means that content entrepreneurship has entered the second half after several years of barbaric growth, the industry is facing a reshuffle, and Perfect World is the only manufacturer that can stand out in the second half of the competition.
This is because perfect world's core competitiveness lies in its R&D advantages, and it is also because in the past traffic-oriented environment of the game industry, Perfect World's R&D advantages have been underestimated. Last year, Perfect World occupied 24% of the market share in its core mmo mobile game category, and the newly launched "Dream New Immortal" mobile game adopted the form of mmo+ round, and the flow of half a month on the line has exceeded 250 million, which fully proves the R&D strength of Perfect World.
In recent years, under the background of the rise of the mobile game market, Perfect World's mmo mobile games "Jie Xian", "Perfect World", "New Smiling Pride Jianghu", "New God Demon Continent", "Dream New Immortal" and so on have all achieved market success, which is inseparable from the long accumulation and polishing of Perfect World in the end game era, and is also an important cornerstone of future success.
Perfect World's R&D technology is also reflected in the research and development of its self-developed engines and the transformation and utilization of commercial engines. At the end of last year, Perfect World's self-developed era engine signed a strategic cooperation with Hongmeng System, and the two sides announced that they would work together to carry out deeper exploration and layout in the field of games in the new 5G era.
Game products belong to the category of content creation, and one or two people can make a simple independent game. However, in terms of the premise of large-scale boutique production, large manufacturers rely on large and small project groups and studios, and emphasize the fine division of labor and overall layout in the production process, which is the so-called game industrialization. At present, the industry has reached a consensus that the industrialization of games is the foundation of the future game industry to deepen cultivation, and Perfect World is an active promoter of game industrialization.
Since its inception, Perfect World has a R&D team of more than 3,000 people, divided into multiple project teams, and the company has set up a middle office support department internally to support and empower the project team from multiple dimensions such as technology, art, industry, competitors and user research. This stable and continuously optimized organization is the most fundamental guarantee for Perfect World to achieve stable output of high-quality games. At present, there are very few domestic manufacturers who can achieve this level of research and development and the scale of research and development.
In April this year, Perfect World released nearly 30 new tour reserve products, not only digging vertically in the original flagship IPs such as "Perfect World", "XueXian", "Wuxia" and "Magic", but also expanding the breadth of categories horizontally, such as light science fiction, quadratic yuan, etc., to better invest in the market preferred by Generation Z.
(Perfect World's research game is huge)
Among them, the most enjoyable is the "Magic Tower" mobile game. Perfect World officially defines "Magic Tower" as a light science fiction open world mobile game, and the core team has successful products in the past and has rich experience. At present, the number of reservations on the official website of the game is nearly 6 million, which has a high degree of topic as an original IP; the overall game framework is built on the traditional mmo, while introducing a more youthful design style and open world gameplay.
Last year, "Original God" burst out of the circle, making 6.4 billion yuan in half a year on the line, so that more people are full of expectations for the "Magic Tower" mobile game that is also open to the world + two dimensions. Perfect World's attitude towards the "Magic Tower" mobile game is also very cautious, and it has carried out large-scale testing and debugging many times, trying to live up to the expectations of players. This explosive product is now on the way, and will soon usher in the paid deletion test on July 15.
Based on the rough analysis of the information of the current financial forecast, the internal and external environment in the first half of the year is unfavorable to Perfect World, but the occasional decline in performance is not enough to be afraid, because the company's fundamentals are still good, and the core competitive advantage of research and development is distinct, especially the already successful blockbuster "Dream New Immortal" and the "Magic Tower" on the road, there is a high probability that perfect world performance will be inserted into the wings in the second half of the year.
Finally, in the case of Tencent, NetEase, Mihayou and other companies listed overseas or not yet listed, Perfect World is a more obvious A-share online game white horse, it is recommended that investors track reference, may wish to seize the negative opportunity of this financial report, such as the recent stock price has fallen into the estimated range of the appropriate to build a position.