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今天小编为您带来“越览（62）——精读复刻论文
《基于多粒度概率语言和双参照点的应急决策方法》
应用实例的理解与计算（1）。”
欢迎您的访问！
Share interest, spread happiness,
increase knowledge, and leave beautiful.
Dear, this is the LearingYard Academy!
Today, the editor brings the "Yue Lan(62)—intensive reading
replica paper 'Emergency decision-making
method based on multi-granularity probability language
and dual reference points'
Understanding and calculating the application example (1)".
Welcome to visit!
一、内容摘要（Summary of Content）
本期推文将从思维导图、精读内容、知识补充三个方面介绍精读复刻论文《基于多粒度概率语言和双参照点的应急决策方法》应用实例的理解与计算（1）。
This issue will introduce the understanding and calculating the application example of the intensively read replica paper "Emergency decision-making method based on multi-granularity probability language and dual reference points" in terms of mind maps, intensively read content, and knowledge supplementation.
二、思维导图（Mind mapping）
三、精读内容（Intensive reading content）
上周计算完步骤一各位决策成员相对重要度后，本周继续学习应用实例的复刻。
After calculating the relative importance of each decision-making member in Step 1 last week, continue to learn the replica of the application example this week.
步骤二描述了应急决策组根据火灾的实际情况和历史资料，确定了关键风险因素。这些因素包括调配救援主体的便利性、保障人身安全的程度、避免财产损失的可能性、匹配救援物资的合理性、消除负面舆论的效果，以及应对突发事件的速度。为了简化决策，风险因素被转化为效益型。决策者通过偏好的概率语言评估标度来评估这些因素的权重，并使用特定的公式进行信息的一致化和标准化处理。
Step 2 describes the emergency decision-making team's determination of key risk factors based on the actual situation and historical data of the fire. These factors include the convenience of deploying rescue agents, the degree of ensuring personal safety, the possibility of avoiding property damage, the rationality of matching relief supplies, the effect of eliminating negative public opinion, and the speed of responding to emergencies. To simplify decision-making, risk factors are transformed into utility types. Decision-makers evaluate the weight of these factors through a preferred probabilistic linguistic evaluation scale, and use specific formulas to unify and standardize the information.
本周在Matlab中用代码复刻获取关键风险因素权重信息的期望值。
Get the expected value of key risk factor weight information with code replication in Matlab this week.
最后算出的期望值矩阵为：
The final expected value matrix is:
四、知识补充（Knowledge Supplement）
在多属性决策中，期望值、偏离度和犹豫度是用于评估和比较不同选项的重要概念。
In multi-attribute decision making, expectation, deviation, and hesitation are important concepts for evaluating and comparing different options.
1. 期望值（Expected Value）
期望值是通过对每个决策选项的各属性值进行加权平均计算得出的。具体而言，期望值考虑了每个属性的重要性（权重）及其对应的可能值。在决策中，期望值可以帮助决策者评估各选项在考虑不确定性时的总体效益。计算公式通常为：
The expected value is calculated by a weighted average of the values of each attribute for each decision option. Specifically, the expected value takes into account the importance (weight) of each attribute and its corresponding possible values. In decision making, the expected value can help the decision maker evaluate the overall benefit of each option when uncertainty is taken into account. The formula for calculation is usually:
其中 Pi 是某个属性发生的概率，Vi是该属性的效益值。
Where Pi is the probability of an attribute occurring, and Vi is the benefit value of that attribute.
2. 偏离度（Deviation）
偏离度是用来衡量实际结果与预期目标之间的差距的指标。它反映了决策选项在某一特定属性上的表现与其预期水平之间的差异。偏离度可以用于评估不同选项在实际实施中的有效性和可靠性。常见的计算方法包括使用绝对偏差（即实际值与目标值的差）或相对偏差（即偏差与目标值的比率）。
Deviation is a metric used to measure the gap between the actual results and the expected goal. It reflects the difference between the performance of a decision option on a particular attribute and its expected level. Deviation can be used to evaluate the effectiveness and reliability of different options in actual implementation. Common calculation methods include using absolute deviation (i.e. the difference between the actual value and the target value) or relative deviation (i.e. the ratio of the deviation to the target value).
3. 犹豫度（Hesitation）
犹豫度是指决策者在选择某一选项时的不确定性和犹豫程度。这通常反映了决策者对信息的不完全性或多样性。犹豫度可以通过多种方式量化，例如使用模糊集理论，来表达决策者在不同选项之间的模糊性和模棱两可的态度。犹豫度的存在往往会影响最终的决策结果，尤其是在面对复杂或不确定的情境时。
The degree of hesitation refers to the degree of uncertainty and hesitation that a decision-maker has when choosing an option. This usually reflects the incompleteness or diversity of the decision-maker's information. The degree of hesitation can be quantified in a number of ways, such as using fuzzy set theory to express the decision-maker's ambiguity and ambiguous attitude between different options. The existence of hesitation often affects the final decision-making outcome, especially when faced with complex or uncertain situations.
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文案|yyz
排版|yyz
审核|hzy
翻译：火山翻译
参考资料：百度百科、Chat GPT、通义千问
参考文献：基于多粒度概率语言和双参照点的应急决策方法[J/OL].中国管理科学, 2024, 1(1): 1-12.
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