This week (November 22 - November 26), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.10%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.17%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.46%,
At a time of broader market volatility, the plate rotation has accelerated significantly this week. Non-ferrous metals, steel and other cyclical plates have "returned" again, and the brewing and resource plates have continued to rebound; rare earth permanent magnets, scarce resources, lithium batteries, ultra-high voltage, etc. have risen in the front, and the metacosm, semiconductors, sub-new stocks, and large health plates have rapidly rotated, of which photovoltaic, pig industry, online games, and semiconductor equipment have ranked in the forefront of the decline.
In terms of funds, in the past week, the transaction amount of northbound funds reached 492.286 billion yuan, and the net purchase was 5.71 billion yuan. Textile and garment, communications, non-banking finance and other industries are the most favored by northbound funds.
However, on Friday, due to the impact of the mutated new crown virus Omicron, the global financial market was shaken. Guotai Junan pointed out that overall, the risk of this round of mutated virus still needs to be dynamically observed, but in view of the domestic prevention and control experience and the historical interpretation of the epidemic, there is no need to panic about the impact on the capital market. Zhongyuan Securities pointed out that the current Shanghai index is in a relatively balanced operating trend, the stock index is not easy to go up and down, the future of the stock index can get out of the market is still dependent on the stimulation of external forces, in the relatively calm stage of the policy, investors can pay due attention to the trading investment opportunities in some thematic sectors. At the same time, Huaan Securities said that the layout of the transition period will become the main tone in the coming year, and while maintaining balance, the allocation will gradually shift to growth. In the fourth quarter, the left side of the bottom grinding, superimposed to the transition to next year, should once again be biased towards the growth of strong tracks.
Key data at a glance
Hotspot re-disk
【Lithium battery】
This week, "there is lithium all over the world" returned. On the news side, Shanghai nonferrous network data show that on November 25, the battery-grade lithium carbonate quotation exceeded 200,000 yuan / ton for three consecutive days, up 359.8% from 43,500 yuan / ton in the same period last year, up about 277% year-to-date. Media analysis, the rise in lithium prices reflects that the market supply and demand contradiction is still tense, because lithium resources as one of the most important metal raw materials in the upstream of the new energy industry chain, in the case of large-scale development of the industry demand is strong, at the same time, downstream manufacturers and various industrial chain links also hope to use resources to control costs, the competition for mineral resources is more intense. Tianfeng Securities believes that the lithium price touching the previous high point does not mean that the market is over, the core is whether the price can be sustained.
Huaan Securities said that due to entering the winter, the supply side of the salt lake production contracted to a certain extent, there is almost no supply increment; but on the one hand, the demand side of the lithium battery scheduling is rising month by month, and the battery factory and the midstream material factory are gradually preparing goods before the year, and with the continuous rise in lithium prices and the nature of storage since this year, the lithium salt inventory of traders and material factories has gradually consumed, and the inventory of all parties in the industry is at a low level; under the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand, the spot price continues to rise, the contract price between large factories is also rising month by month, and the lithium price still has the support and rise of the supply and demand relationship.
Kaiyuan Securities said that 2022 is a key year for the breakthrough of the supply side of lithium batteries, and it is necessary to pay attention to the direction of post-cycle and new technologies. Lithium batteries are the higher barriers of the industrial chain, and it is easy to form a trend of stronger and stronger in essence. In the past year, the domestic battery leader has further accelerated the layout of upstream core lithium battery materials and even the most upstream lithium, nickel, cobalt and other links; after 2022, the lithium battery leader and the material manufacturers joint venture expansion capacity is expected to gradually mass production, and its raw material cost advantage is expected to be gradually realized.
Guosheng Securities believes that weaker supply & rising costs will continue to push up lithium prices. Affected by the climate, the domestic mineral supply is further tight, the processing plant is affected by the continuous upward movement of raw material costs, the price behavior is strong, the market generally shows a strong bullish sentiment, and the subsequent lithium price may continue the upward trend.
Guorong Securities said from the perspective of investment advice that the tightening of technical standards will be good for leading iron lithium battery enterprises, which is not conducive to small and medium-sized iron lithium battery enterprises and cross-border enterprises, and it is recommended to pay attention to lithium battery leading companies.
【Steel】
Last week, the steel sector performed well, and for the future of the sector, industry institutions and experts believe that it is ushering in entry opportunities.
Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that the current steel sector has entered the value range, and investment opportunities have emerged, but space and flexibility depend on whether the transmission of current policies to fundamentals is smooth, and the time point of testing will appear in the first quarter of next year. The steel sector has fallen into the value range, the bottom layout, waiting for the value to return.
Soochow Securities said that in the context of the high in the history of profitability and the historical low in valuation, carbon neutrality has brought about the industry supply ceiling, coupled with the raw material side once again contributing to the cost dividend, steel stocks will usher in a wave of performance and valuation double-rising plate opportunities. Optimistic about low-value plates, high-quality long products and some special steels.
【Rare earth permanent magnet】
The rare earth permanent magnet sector performed strongly this week. The agency believes that supply and demand and policy are expected to resonate, superimposed on the upstream restructuring expectations, it is expected that rare earth prices will be stable and progressive in 2022, and the profits of companies related to the rare earth industry chain are expected to grow sustainably for a long time.
Everbright Securities believes that it is fully optimistic about the new energy metal industry chain. The high growth of downstream electric vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power demand has led to the rapid growth of upstream demand for lithium, cobalt, rare earth magnetic materials and other metal materials, according to the growth rate of demand, we recommend lithium > rare earth > cobalt. According to the comprehensive calculation of the ROIC, free cash flow and elasticity indicators of listed companies, we recommend Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Shenghe Resources, Huayou Cobalt, and recommend paying attention to northern rare earths.
CITIC Securities pointed out that as the demand for new energy vehicles continues to erupt, the downstream demand for carbon-neutral wind power, energy-saving inverter air conditioning and other downstream demand is stable and progressive, and the downstream demand for rare earths is expected to continue to improve; it is expected that the domestic rare earth supply during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period will still be limited by the total mining index, the supply-side high-pressure policy will continue, the increase in overseas supply in the next 5 years is relatively limited, and the global rare earth supply and demand may be in a tight balance for a long time. We expect that the price of rare earths in 2022 will be stable and progressive, and the profits of companies related to the rare earth industry chain are expected to grow sustainably for a long time, and it is recommended to pay attention to the strategic allocation value of the whole rare earth industry chain.
[Former Universe]
According to statistics, since November, the meta-universe concept stocks have collectively soared. Tengjing Technology, Chinese Online, Jiachuang Video, Highland News, Hengxin Oriental, several companies containing the concept of meta-universe have more than doubled their gains. However, at the same time, many companies that have recently soared due to the stock price of the meta-universe concept have either received letters of concern or issued risk warnings, and the bubble has emerged. Has the metaverse risen to an end?
In this regard, Guohai Securities believes that under ideal circumstances, the operating state of the metacosm is = large-scale users continue to be online + high immersion / high simulation + efficient content production + decentralized information storage and authentication. To achieve this ideal operation, at least five layers of basic technology bases are needed: network and computing technology, simulation interaction technology, artificial intelligence technology, creation tools/content distribution platforms, and blockchain technology. Overall, we think of the metacosm as a beautiful vision of an ideal virtual world that can be freely explored, but the current technology base required for the realization of the metacosm is still far away, and there is still a long way to go in the future.
Guoyuan Securities believes that at present, the meta-universe is still in the early exploration stage of the gradual expansion of the application of games and other scenarios to other applications, and the relevant technologies and content have yet to mature, but the accelerated layout of software and hardware giants will promote the rapid development of the industry. From a technical point of view, the increase in 5G penetration, the improvement of AI and cloud computing power, and the expansion of the application scope of blockchain technology (NFT, digital currency) provide a technical basis for the metaverse; from the hardware point of view, consumer-grade VR/AR devices are expected to usher in rapid growth, according to IDC data, global VR equipment shipments are expected to increase to more than 10 million units next year, which will promote the early ecological construction of the metaverse with high immersion and interaction.
【Environmental Protection】
This week, the environmental protection sector ushered in a sharp rise. On November 25, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment held a regular press conference in November to make new arrangements for the recently released "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Deepening the Battle against Pollution": two important tasks will be added and 8 landmark battles will be deployed. The first important task is to strengthen the coordinated control of PM2.5 and ozone, deploy and implement the battle to eliminate heavy pollution weather and the battle against ozone pollution, and further enhance the people's sense of blue sky; the second task is to implement the major national strategy, add the Yellow River ecological protection and governance battle, and promote the joint efforts to grasp the great protection and coordinate the promotion of the great governance. Affected by this, the next day, Bejet "20cm" up and down, Huicheng Environmental Protection, Lihe Technology, Wanbangda and other outstanding performance.
In addition, the sector has also attracted attention from the increase in capital positions. According to the data, as of November 25, there were 14 leveraged funds that increased their positions, and the top increase in financing balances were Bejet, Baichuan Changyin, Infore Environment, etc., which increased by 39.60%, 31.21% and 28.17% respectively. There are 10 northbound funds to increase the position, the larger increase is Longhua Technology, Overseas Chinese Bank shares, Weiming Environmental Protection, the increase in the position of 86.78%, 52.64%, 28.23%.
CDB Securities expects that in 2022, the environmental protection industry may no longer be based on the high growth rate of a single subdivision industry as the main model, but the gas, water and solid industries will blossom at multiple points. At present, the atmospheric treatment technology is mature, the industry space is not large, but the demand for carbon reduction has brought new increments to the industry, mainly reflected in new segments, such as diesel vehicle exhaust gas treatment, reduced ozone emissions, new energy operations, etc.; sewage treatment enterprises are hindered by the engineering business dragging down for a long time, but the treatment of rural black and odorous water bodies and the demand for high water quality will bring new growth points to the industry; the solid waste industry is more segmented, and the resource recycling business is expected to usher in opportunities.
Guosheng Securities said that in the past three years, the performance of the environmental protection sector is sluggish, valuation, positions, etc. are still at a low level, the introduction of environmental protection REITs to provide new equity financing tools, urban sewage, garbage treatment, solid waste hazardous waste treatment and other pollution control operations as the key industries, optimistic about the strong technical advantages, high barriers of enterprises, first, growth, strong certainty of waste incineration companies; second, in hand projects rich, high technical barriers of hazardous waste disposal companies; third, the value is expected to be revalued water companies.
【Liquor】
The performance of the liquor sector rebounded this week, and what is more noteworthy is that there are signs of northbound funds returning to the liquor sector. In the past week, the net purchase amount of northbound funds ranked in the top ten, and Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe shares, etc. were on the list, among them, Guizhou Moutai became the stock with the highest transaction amount in the past week, with a cumulative transaction amount of 15.576 billion yuan, a cumulative increase of 6.16%.
Tianfeng Securities mentioned that the liquor sector is the first to promote high-end liquor. The investment strategy in 2022 will mainly revolve around "certainty", which is mainly divided into three categories: (1) industry leaders with strong performance certainty; (2) targets with certainty in industry development trends and performance; (3) targets that are at the bottom of valuation and have potential reversal flexibility. In the liquor sector, high-end liquor leaders have strong barriers, business models have superiority, 2022 performance certainty is still strong, the current valuation is in a reasonable position, short-term or enjoy the valuation switch brought by the market, in the medium term, the funds back to the consumption sector or will be the first choice of high-end liquor, in the long run, high-end liquor price increase ability still exists, but the short-term by external factors suppressed, the core logic has not changed, is still a long-term layout of high-quality core assets.
Huachuang Securities said that it attaches importance to the New Year's Eve and peak season market, preferring high-end accelerated Moutai and potential strong Fenjiu, and paying attention to the theme of reform. Although the current market is still controversial about the demand for liquor in the coming year, from the perspective of business quality, the fundamentals of the liquor industry are healthy, there is room for the report end, the channel confidence is still sufficient, and the Q1 of the next year after the benign operation is more sufficient. Short-term suggestions pay attention to the year-end dealer conference, liquor companies to disclose the next year's business planning, as well as peak season stockpiling and other catalysts, pay attention to the liquor New Year's Market.
Aftermarket configuration
Haitong strategy: The latest variant of the new crown has disturbed the market and does not change the trend of the new year's market
The latest research report of Haitong Strategy believes that from the perspective of annual, quarterly and three-month rolling, the amplitude of the current major broad-based indexes is at a record low or at a historical low. Referring to U.S. stocks, the decline in volatility of A shares is a medium- to long-term trend. In the short term, the narrowing of the market amplitude is often the prelude to the start of the market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. The latest variant of the new crown has disturbed the market, does not change the trend of the New Year's market, the structure is balanced, the big finance and hard technology are better, and the consumption is rising.
Zhongyuan Securities: The mid-line continues to focus on investment opportunities in undervalued blue-chip stocks
Zhongyuan Securities pointed out that the current market hotspot conversion is frequent, the market money-making effect is not strong, the stock game characteristics are significant, investors hold the currency and wait-and-see mentality is heavy, the future stock index can go out of the market still need a strong boost from external forces, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the policy and capital changes. It is expected that the shanghai index short-term small consolidation is more likely, and the short-term small fluctuation of the ChiNext market is more likely. Investors are advised to wait and see in the short term, and the mid-term continues to focus on investment opportunities in undervalued blue-chip stocks.
Orient Securities: New energy and other growth lines will still lead the New Year's Market
Orient Securities said that near the end of the year, the market is resolute in doing more for track stocks with high prosperity continuation or clear policy expectations, after all, the performance is clearly guaranteed, such as new energy, semiconductors and other growth main lines will still lead the New Year's market, while there are stage opportunities for the valuation repair of low-valued sectors, including low-valued small-cap stocks, as well as finance, real estate and other sectors. At present, the funds in the market are more active, the hot plate switch is smooth, and investors can gradually increase their positions when the market adjusts, and grasp the market's previous market.
Zheshang Securities: The pro-cyclical sector is expected to usher in a phase of repair
Looking forward to the 1-3 quarter of 2022, Zheshang Securities said that the macro scenario is the downward trend of profits superimposed on the rise of residual liquidity, further combined with the industrial trend and valuation level, it is expected that the small and medium-sized growth stocks represented by the science and technology innovation board will usher in the Davis double-click market, the industry clues, the new energy chain will move towards differentiation, and the traditional industry will be dominated by structural opportunities in the context of profit slowdown; looking forward to the 3-4 quarters of 2022, assuming that with the release of the potential of manufacturing investment reengineering, the economic margin improves. Then it is expected that the pro-cyclical plate represented by the CSI 300 is expected to usher in a stage of repair, which is relatively dominant.
Tianfeng Securities: The strong sector of high prosperity can be grasped in two directions
Tianfeng Securities mentioned that in the strong sector of high prosperity, next year can still be grasped in two directions: the first is the sector that has performed strongly this year, and the market expects that the performance of next year will continue to rise or fall by a small margin, such as: photovoltaics, energy storage equipment, and CXO. The second is this year's strong/high-growth sector, although the performance growth rate of next year has declined significantly, but the horizontal comparison is still in the forefront, such as: new energy vehicles, raw materials, and OEMs. Under the background of policies and market styles biased toward emerging industries, the growth sectors of PCB and information security that are inverted next year are worthy of attention.