Sisso European Review| next year's French election will be a "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" or a duel between the two heroes?

The Paper's special contributor Cai Jiachen

【Editor's Note】

This article is the 12th article of the column "Sisso European Review" launched by the "European Studies" research team of the Shanghai Institute of Global Governance and Regional Country Studies of Shanghai University of Foreign Chinese (SISU) in cooperation with the International Department of The Paper. Following "French Trump" Zemour's announcement of his candidacy for next year's presidential election, French Republican presidential candidate Valerie Pecrés rose to prominence in polls. Dozens of candidates have greatly increased the uncertainty of the French election amid fragmentation of the political landscape, but there are still some definite signs to follow beneath the chaotic surface.

On November 30, Eric Zemour announced his participation in the French presidential election, blowing up a pool of "spring water" in French politics. A poll released in France on December 7 showed that Republican presidential candidate Valerie Pécrés would enter the second round of voting and defeat France's current president, Macron. This is also the first time that Macron has "lost" in the poll prediction.

The first round of voting will be held in the French presidential election on April 10, 2022, and if no one obtains an absolute majority in the first round, voters will vote "out of two" on the top two candidates who won the first round on April 24, two weeks later, to decide who is the owner of the Elysee Palace. Amid the fragmentation of France's political landscape, 40 people have announced their candidacy, a number that is expected to increase. French media France 24 reported that the French election is still highly unpredictable, and voter sentiment will change rapidly as new candidates join. Therefore, Pékrés's sudden rise may not be a problem at this stage.

So, will the French presidential election bring certainty to the world, or will a "black swan" fly out?

On December 5, 2021, local time, in Paris, France, France's far-right presidential candidate Eric Zemour held his first rally in Paris. Visual China figure

Macron is a popular candidate, but there are concerns about re-election

In the 2017 presidential election, Macron, the leader of the Republic Forward movement, which was founded less than a year ago, successfully ascended to the presidency and won a majority in the legislative elections that followed. There are still half a year to go before the end of Macron's term, and macron's approval rating is still ahead of next year's general election candidates. According to the survey results of a number of polling agencies such as Ipos and Ifop, Macron ranked first in the first round of voting, more than 20%, and the gap with the second candidate remained at about 10%. According to the results of a survey conducted by yougov agency in late September, half of respondents believe macron will be re-elected president of France, and that percentage is rising.

In Kantar's poll, former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe was the Frenchman's most trusted political figure. But Philippe has made it clear that he will not run in the 2022 presidential election and has repeatedly expressed his support for Macron's re-election. Last month, Philippe formed a new political party, Horizon, with the aim of "helping (consolidating) the base of support for the current president", Gilles Boyer, a former adviser to Philippe, also believes that "Horizon is to support Macron's participation in the presidential election", and public opinion believes that Horizon is also to expand the right's support for Macron. At the end of November, more than 600 Local French politicians, including Philippe, issued an appeal in support of Macron's re-election: "In order to cope with the great challenges facing the country ... We need continuity and stability."

But Macron was not risk-free in the first round of voting. According to the luiprésident website, of the 401 promises Macron has made so far since taking office, only 75 have been fully fulfilled, and more than half of the promises that have not yet been fulfilled have been fulfilled. By contrast, even François Hollande, known as the "failed president," delivered on 221 of the 940 promises he made during his tenure. It is also a highly ironic indication of the decline in the French people's trust in elite politics under representative democracy.

In addition, the Kantar poll results show that Macron currently enjoys only 34% of the trust, and the value has shown a downward trend in the past two months. Former French presidents Jacques Chirac and Mitterrand had 38 percent and 56 percent trust, respectively, before they were re-elected, while former presidents Sarkozy and Hollande both had less than 30 percent and failed to be re-elected. That said, Macron's level of trust is currently in a critical and delicate state. France has now entered the fifth wave of the epidemic, and whether Macron can properly face the social problems caused by the epidemic will also be directly reflected in the support rate. Overall, however, Macron's strengths are clear.

In the face of the fifth wave of the epidemic, Macron announced in a televised speech on November 9 that from December 15, people over the age of 65 will need to extend the validity of their vaccine passes by injecting a booster vaccine. This has the potential to increase the number of opponents of the Vaccine Pass. In terms of social welfare, Macron announced that the threshold for receiving unemployment insurance benefits will be raised. From 1 December, only unemployed persons who have worked for more than 6 months in the past 2 years will be able to receive insurance benefits. This may cause dissatisfaction among those at the bottom of society and public concerns about the social welfare system. Macron mentioned that in order to ensure France's energy independence, the construction of nuclear power plants will be restarted, which is also part of the "strategic autonomy" pursued by France. In addition, Macron proposed the "France 2030" plan, but since France needs to keep the deficit within 5% of GDP by 2022, the problem of its funding sources remains to be solved.

Le Pen's approval ratings have risen, but they may not be representative of the far right

Macron's biggest challenger next year will still be "old enemy" Marina Le Pen. After breaking with his father, Le Pen Sr., the far-right party National Front embarked on the path of "de-demonization" under the leadership of Marina Le Pen. Le Pen became the head of the National Front in 2011 and renamed it the National Union in 2018, achieving impressive results in important elections in France and Europe, and has a stable vote base. In the presidential election, Le Pen's first candidacy in 2012 won 17.9% of the vote in the first round of voting, second only to the traditional left and right parties; in 2017, Le Pen directly entered the second round of voting with 21.3% support, which is enough to prove the strong momentum of the party's development. In the European Parliament elections, the National Front overtook the Popular Movement Alliance and the Socialist Party in 2014 to take the first place, occupying 24 seats; in 2019, the "National Alliance" won 23 seats with a higher support than the "Republic Forward" movement. In the municipal elections and regional elections, the performance of the "National Alliance" is also remarkable.

On November 15, Le Pen revealed his political views in an interview with Franceinfo. It is particularly noteworthy that the topics in this interview mostly involve young people, including support for "young people aged 18 to 25 to ride the train completely free of charge during off-peak hours", "abolishing income tax for people under 30 years old within five years", and animal protection policies that young people are interested in, which shows that Le Pen is seeking support from young people. Results released by pollster Elabe on Nov. 24 showed that Le Pen's approval ratings had risen compared to the last election, largely due to the 25- to 34-year-olds.

In addition, Le Pen also proposed to lift the obligation of medical staff to vaccinate and revoke health certificates, arguing that "it should coexist with the new crown virus", and proposed the establishment of a referendum mechanism to face issues such as "significant restrictions on immigration" and "assisted reproductive technology". Le Pen's support groups have focused on the youth and working class that blame migration for the decline in quality of life. Despite years of "de-demonization" efforts, Le Pen's anti-immigrant and other extreme views have been criticized by other parties.

While "de-demonization" helped Le Pen boost her approval ratings, her break with her father and her tendency to "soften" her image and political views also led the far right to question whether Le Pen was representative. There are also those within the National Union that Le Pen has abandoned some far-right views for the electoral purposes. Moreover, the "National Alliance", which has become the family party of the Le Pen family, has also aroused discontent within the party.

Whether Zemur can have an impact on Le Pen is in doubt

So far, five far-right politicians have announced their candidacy for the 2022 presidential election. Antoine Martinez, the founder of the French Popular Front party, ran marginally, making it difficult to find his name even in polls. Another far-right politician who announced his candidacy is Florian Philippot. Filippo was the second-in-command of the National Front, having contributed a lot to the rise of the National Front in the 2017 presidential election, and later formed the "Patriots" party because of his political views different from Le Pen. But when Filippo left the party, only 25 of the 358 regional legislators of the National Front followed him. Le Pen's supremacy among far-right parties is evident, with most of the far-right parties' votes attributable to the National Alliance.

In the 2017 presidential election, the sudden emergence of the "Republican Advance" movement left French politics fragmented. Eric Zemmour, who bears the labels of "political amateur" and "has a lot of media resources", turned out to be "French Trump". The writer, who spoke radically and behaved out of the ordinary, was considered to be on the far right for his radical anti-immigrant rhetoric. Although Zemour has now announced his candidacy and will form a political party to recover the lost land (Reconquête), the attack on his first campaign rally on December 5 also provides a glimpse of the rejection of the extremely xenophobic and racist by the French majority.

According to a Poll published by Le Monde on October 13, the proportion of the far right has declined, although the right-wing French population has risen by 2.3% compared with 2015. 57 percent of those surveyed were most worried about Zemur, with 57 percent believing that Zemur was too radical and fearing that Zemur might bring about social fragmentation. The Atlantic Journal showed Zemour becoming the most unpopular political figure among the French, with 61% of the French voting a "no". A december 7 report by French mediafrance 24 also suggested that Zemour's momentum was waning.

The 2017 French general election changed the French political landscape, with traditional left and right parties failing to enter the second round of voting, and the left-wing Socialist Party receiving less than 10% of the vote, thus entering a long period of adjustment in French politics. The 2022 French general election is imminent, and no less than 40 candidates have announced that they will participate in the presidential election. According to the latest poll results of French polling agencies such as Ipsos and Ifop, Macron and Le Pen's lead in the first round of voting is obvious. Therefore, the 2022 French election is likely not to be the "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" of Macron, Le Pen and Zemur, but will recreate the scene of 2017, that is, Macron and Le Pen will once again decide each other.

(The author is a 2021 master's student at the Shanghai Institute of Global Governance and Regional Studies, Shanghai University of Foreign Chinese)

Responsible editor: Zhu Zhengyong Photo editor: Jin Jie

Proofreader: Ding Xiao