Source: tide-biz
Text | Xie Zefeng
Edit | Yang Xuran
Subscribe to GODY Finance ▲ Brings you deep and diverse perspectives
Automobiles are one of the most complex and sophisticated industrial products in human history.
From the engine, gearbox, axle body to the screw nut, a car must be made up of thousands of different parts. These thousands of parts are eventually aggregated into the whole car, and the value is paid by the consumer.
It can be said that the advantages and disadvantages of the automobile industry represent the strength of a country's industrial strength, and the auto parts industry is the most important component of it, occupying a huge proportion in the entire value chain.
With the continuous integration of electric vehicles and intelligent technologies, the car began to gradually transform into a new intelligent terminal. Chips, sensors, AI artificial intelligence, cloud computing... High-tech technology is constantly used to "arm" smart cars, and the connotation extension of auto parts is rapidly expanding.
Although China is already the world's largest producer and sales of new energy vehicles, it is regrettable that China's auto parts industry is even weaker than the whole vehicle.
Generally speaking, the output value of the auto parts industry in developed countries can often reach 1.7:1 compared with the whole vehicle, while China is only about 1:1. In other words, China's core auto parts rely heavily on imports, and for many years is the second largest industrial product imported by China, second only to integrated circuits.
However, the historical time for overtaking in curves has arrived. With the rapid rise of independent car companies and new energy vehicles, the auto parts industry chain is gradually flowing into China. The transformation of automobile electrification and intelligence will slowly open the curtain of a new historical drama.
The industrial structure, which was originally controlled by Europe, the United States and Japan, is being reshaped in the new industrial environment. As one of the most important pillar industries of the global economy, the industrial value of auto parts is rapidly flowing to China.
01
Unequal industrial status
Most of the revenue of Chinese auto companies is used to purchase parts produced overseas.
China's auto parts and vehicle industry has long been in a state of unequal status, China's parts and vehicle ratio is 1:1, while developed countries in Europe, the United States and Japan have been able to reach 1.7:1. Moreover, the proportion of China's own brand vehicles using independent brand parts is less than 50%.
In other words, most of the revenue of Chinese auto companies is used to purchase parts produced overseas.
In the 2021 Top 100 Global Auto Parts Suppliers List released by Automotive News, a total of 9 Companies in China are listed, and if you count Weichai Power, Huayu Automobile and Fuyao Glass, which are not included in the list, a total of 12 companies have been shortlisted. However, there is not a single Chinese company in the top ten, and Japan and Germany occupy 64 of the top 100.
Germany's Bosch, ZF, Continental, Japan's Denso, Canada's Magna, the United States' Delphi, etc., these companies have long been at the top of the auto parts industry, and their every move leads the development direction of the global parts industry.
China is already the world's largest producer and sales of automobiles and new energy vehicles, but the core components are still subject to people. The core technologies of key components such as automotive electronic control still cannot be autonomousized, and some key raw materials, components, and equipment of some upstream basic industries still rely on imports.
In the five core components of the car - engine, chassis, body, gearbox and electrical installation, Chinese companies are still struggling to catch up. The engine once relied heavily on Mitsubishi; in the field of electronic control, Infineon and Bosch occupied the dominant position in the market; the gearbox was controlled by AISIN, ZF and so on; Bosch, Delphi and Denso almost monopolized all of China's EFI market share.
Therefore, whether it is the scale or technical level, China's auto parts enterprises still have huge room for improvement. The outbreak of new energy vehicles has provided a huge stage for the rise of Chinese enterprises.
02
The industrial chain of the return stream
The strong new energy vehicle market has provided a huge stage for the auto parts industry, and related manufacturing industries are accelerating their return to China.
Since 2009, China has surpassed the United States to become the world's largest auto consumer market. In 2020, China is still the largest contributor to the global auto industry, accounting for more than 32% of sales, and the United States, which ranks second, accounts for about 19%.
In the field of vigorous new energy vehicles, China's market position is more obvious, and it can be said that it is the absolute main force in the global new energy vehicle consumption market.
In 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 1.366 million units and 1.367 million units, respectively, an increase of 7.5% and 10.9% year-on-year, accounting for 42.19% of the global sales of new energy vehicles.
Since the beginning of this year, China's new energy automobile industry has soared, continuing to exceed expectations. In the first 10 months, production and sales of new energy vehicles totaled 2.566 million units and 2.542 million units, respectively, up 1.8 times year-on-year.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, new energy passenger car sales in October this year were 379,000 units, and its market penetration reached 18.2%. This figure is very close to the planned target of "20% of new energy vehicle sales in 2025".
Bydy's head Wang Chuanfu's forecast is even more aggressive: New energy vehicle sales in the Chinese market are expected to break 3.3 million units this year, and by the end of next year, China's new energy vehicle penetration rate will exceed 35%.
Behind this, new energy vehicle companies have played a huge driving force. Tesla's factory construction and mass production in China have detonated the performance of related suppliers.
In July 2018, Tesla's China factory officially settled in Shanghai, and the first batch of domestic Model 3s began to be delivered in January 2020. It is reported that one of the requirements for settling in Shanghai is the localization of the entire industrial chain, and the localization rate of Tesla Model 3 parts is close to 90%.
Prior to this, the Model 3 suppliers produced in the United States were mainly foreign-funded. After the start of construction of the Shanghai plant, many enterprises such as Joyson Electronics, Huayu Automobile, Tuopu Group, Sanhua Intelligent Holdings, and Xusheng Co., Ltd. entered the Model 3 supply chain, and the value volume has increased greatly.
Xusheng Shares (SH:603305) is a typical case, Tesla has been its largest customer for many years, and Tesla's contribution will reach more than 43% in 2020.
Bound Tesla, its performance has grown steadily, revenue has nearly tripled in 5 years, in the first three quarters of this year, its revenue increased by more than 80%, and its net profit attributable to the mother increased by more than 43% year-on-year. In addition, Ascend also enters the supply chains of ZF and Polaris.
Tuopu Group, which provides lightweight solutions for cars, has just been involved in the recall of the Mode Y model, but it also illustrates its importance in the Tesla industry chain from another perspective. In addition, its pickup lightweight chassis system is also installed on RIVIAN products, and the bicycle price exceeds 11,000 yuan.
With the advent of the era of intelligent electric vehicles, the related new parts industry chain is growing rapidly.
At the same time, Desay SV has also cooperated with chip and artificial intelligence companies such as Baidu, Nvidia and Huawei to jointly promote the popularization of intelligent driving technology. It can be said that this company is one of the representatives of electric vehicles entering the intelligent era and the rise of Chinese auto parts companies.
At present, automotive intelligent chips are still firmly in the hands of European and American companies such as Qualcomm, Nvidia, Mobileye and Xilinx, and the joint operation of Desay SV and Huawei, Baidu and autonomous vehicles is the expectation of realizing domestic substitution in the field of intelligent driving.
03
The industrial logic of value repatriation
In the new era of car manufacturing, the "whole zero relationship" is being reshaped.
The strength of the auto parts industry in Europe, america and Japan is based on its industrial heritage of hundreds of years, and even the most core wealth pool of the entire industry. It is not realistic to go hand in hand in a short period of time, or even to achieve overtaking.
Although independent car companies such as Great Wall, Chery, and Changan have been struggling to catch up, the gap is still very obvious in the core technology fields of automobiles such as engines and transmissions.
The explosion of electric vehicles has provided a new track to reverse the superiority. The reason is that there is a huge difference between the core components of traditional cars and electric vehicles.
The most obvious difference is the power system, battery, motor, electronic control "three electricity" constitutes the "power hub" of electric vehicles, replacing the fuel power system of traditional cars, and the value of the three accounts for nearly 70%.
Unlike fuel vehicle engines, China is in a leading position in the field of power batteries. In the first three quarters of this year, 5 of the top 10 companies in the global power battery installed capacity came from China, occupying half of the country.
Moreover, Chinese companies have accelerated the introduction of world-class OEMs, ningde era into the supply chains of Volkswagen, Tesla, Toyota and so on; Volkswagen has married Guoxuan Hi-Tech; Ewell Lithium energy has laid out 4680 large cylindrical batteries in a large scale and entered the Daimler supply chain.
The power battery industry chain is extremely large, and the upstream field is also dominated by Chinese enterprises. Among the four major materials, Enjie Co., Ltd. is the world's largest lithium battery wet separator leader; Tianci Materials is the world's largest electrolyte manufacturer; Bertry is the world's largest supplier of lithium battery anode materials; Shanshan and BASF strategic cooperation refers to the world's largest lithium battery cathode material supplier.
In the field of motors and electronic control, Chinese enterprises have long lacked competitiveness, and 90% of the electronic control field depends on imports. For example, IGBT chips as the second largest component after the battery, in addition to BYD's own IGBT, the other 90% of the domestic new energy vehicle market is in The world of Infineon.
At present, domestic enterprises are still struggling to catch up. BYD Semiconductor and Star Semiconductor ranked second or third in China, and Zhuzhou Times and Silan Micro began to exert their strength.
In terms of motors, Wolong Electric Drive and ZF have established a joint venture drive motor company to enter the supply chain of mainstream European car companies such as Mercedes-Benz.
Secondly, in the new era of car manufacturing, the "whole zero relationship" is being reshaped. Different from the Tier1 and Tier2 models, in the new era of car manufacturing, OEMs and parts companies have entered the Tier 0.5 level cooperation era.
Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng, Ideal and other car companies and supply chain companies relationship is more flat and fast, such as Tesla's certification cycle of parts only 6 months, while traditional OEMs need 18-24 months. Rapid response, more cost-effective, and large-scale system integration capabilities all provide opportunities for independent suppliers to rise.
Finally, in the era of fuel vehicles, joint ventures occupy a strong position in the market, and parts manufacturers need to consider the right to speak of the joint venture party if they want to become suppliers of joint venture brands, but in the era of electric vehicles, the advantages of independent brands are obvious, and there is obviously no such problem.
04
Write at the end
The automobile industry has ushered in historic changes, and the replacement of fuel vehicles by new energy vehicles has been vigorous. Behind the prosperity of the vehicle market, the order of the parts industry is also being reshaped simultaneously.
A person in charge of Dongfeng Nissan once said: "Without Chinese parts, pure electric vehicles cannot be built", which shows the importance of China's industrial chain to the global new energy automobile industry.
The soaring sales volume and the continuous exceeding of expectations have provided fertile soil for the rise of China's parts industry. The new characteristics of intelligence and networking are also a big opportunity for China's auto parts enterprises to overtake in curves. The return of wealth in the industrial chain is of great significance to the growth of China's economy.
-- Please refer this article to everyone! --
Read
Disclaimer: The article only represents the personal views of the author and does not represent any position of the official account. Thanks to the author's hard work and originality, if the articles contained in this public account involve copyright, please leave a message to contact the administrator in order to change and delete in time.
One in-depth good article a day
At present, 100,000+ people have joined Highland Finance
Like to point [like] and [watch]