The gray rhinoceros came to the front of the Ningde era. Recently, sources revealed that caterers are seeking help from professional institutions in the United States to consult the possibility of being sanctioned by the United States. What made caterpillar aware of this crisis was a report by the New York Times on December 22, 2021, "Why this Chinese company has become a big winner in the era of electric vehicles", and the dominance of the NINGD era in Washington has worried some people.
"This dominance in Washington worries some people that Detroit could one day become useless, and that Beijing can control American driving in the 21st century, as oil-producing countries did in some of the 20th century," the New York Times said. ”
Just as the United States is accustomed to the united states in the competition of the automobile industry in the United States and Japan, when the United States sees that China has taken the lead in the surging wave of automobile electrification and intelligence, its skillful policy tools may fall on the heads of leading Chinese companies. As a "brother" in the power battery market, overseas compliance risks in the Ningde era have surged, especially from the United States in the context of Sino-US science and technology wars.
Strength leads to jealousy
China's auto industry, which has been struggling to catch up for decades in the era of fuel vehicles, has finally stood at the forefront of the tide of electric vehicles, while the United States, which has always been a major country in the automobile industry, has fallen behind.
From the demand side, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the United States is significantly lower than that in China. EVvolumes data shows that global sales of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles in 2020 will be 3.24 million, compared with 1.3 million in China and only 300,000 in the United States.
From the supply side, although the top spot in the global new energy passenger car sales ranking from January to October 2021 is still firmly occupied by Tesla, BYD, which ranks second, and SAIC-GM-Wuling, which ranks third, are both Chinese companies. In addition, Chinese companies such as Great Wall, GAC, Weilai and Xiaopeng are active in the list. In contrast, in the United States, Ford, GM and other established car companies in the United States have disappeared.
From a supply chain perspective, this gap is even more pronounced. In the power battery track, which is a key component of new energy vehicles, the world has formed a three-legged trend of China, Japan and South Korea, and China is in a dominant position. Industry data shows that in 2020, of the 747GWh of global electric vehicle lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity, the United States accounted for only 8%, while China accounted for 76%. The main suppliers of global power batteries are CATL, LG Chem, Panasonic, BYD, Samsung SDI, etc., of which THE MARKET SHARE OF CATL ERA ranks first. According to data from SNE Research, a South Korean energy market analysis agency, in the first half of 2021, CATL has ranked first in the global power battery market with a market share of 29.9%, and the installed capacity growth rate is significantly faster than that of its Japanese and Korean competitors.
This all-round disadvantage has aroused the high alarm of the US government. In the past year, the Biden administration has issued a number of policies to support new energy vehicles, and the policy is no less than its support for semiconductors. In April 2021, Biden unveiled a $2.3 trillion "package" that includes a $174 billion eviction support package. In May, the U.S. Senate Finance Committee pushed ahead with a new bill that would raise the tax credit cap for electric vehicles assembled in the United States from $7,500 to $10,000. In August, Biden signed an executive order calling for 50 percent of new energy vehicle sales by 2030.
However, Americans themselves are less confident in surpassing China through policy support and market competition. Citing data from benchmark mineral intelligence from a London-based consultancy, the New York Times said China's electric vehicle battery production capacity is 14 times that of the United States. Even as the U.S. continues to build (including projects such as Toyota's announced plans to build a factory in North Carolina in early December 2021), China will maintain its lead, and four years later, China will have seven times as much capacity as the United States.
Past history has shown that when U.S. concerns reach a certain level, means other than market competition will emerge. Another troubling signal is that foreign media questioning the birth and take-off of the Ningde era is the shadow of Chinese policy support. This may exacerbate the United States' jealousy of the Ningde era. After all, being strong and "close to the government" are two of the most common factors for the United States to consider when sanctioning foreign companies.
Lesson
As one of the pillar industries of the United States, the automobile industry is also one of the industries most heavily regulated by US policies. Taking the criminal proceedings and fines imposed by the anti-monopoly authority of the Ministry of Justice as an example, as of July 24, 2020, the Anti-Monopoly Bureau of the U.S. Department of Justice has issued a total of 154 "fines" of more than 10 million US dollars, of which 38 "fines" related to the automobile industry have reached 38, accounting for nearly 25%, ranking first among all industries.
Interestingly, in the 38 penalty records of the Antitrust Bureau of the US Department of Justice for automotive related enterprises, only 1 German company, 1 Swedish company and 3 US-based enterprises were involved, and the rest of the punished companies were Japanese companies. Moreover, the vast majority of these penalty records were generated between 2011 and 2015.
Over the past few decades, the competition between the United States and Japan in the automotive industry has never stopped. Every time the Japanese auto industry touches the core interests of the United States, the United States will "regularly" launch a trade protection war or an industrial war. Toyota Motor President Akio Toyoda has publicly stated: "We are actually very worried that the excessive encroachment of Japanese manufacturers on the US auto market will lead to trade disputes outside the market." ”
In July 2009, the market share of eight major Japanese automobile manufacturers in the United States reached 46.6%, surpassing the three major automobile manufacturers in the United States for the first time. Early the following year, the north American headquarters of three Toyota suppliers, Yazaki, Denso and Tokai Rika, were suddenly searched by the U.S. Department of Justice's Antitrust Bureau and the FBI. Starting with this, in the years that followed, more than 30 Japanese auto supply chain manufacturers and more than 50 company executives were sued by the U.S. Department of Justice for conspiring to manipulate bids, distribute markets, control prices, and other anti-competitive grounds. The suppliers subsequently accepted criminal fines ranging from tens of millions to $470 million, while the executives involved were sentenced to prison terms ranging from 1 to 2 years.
Lower market share in the U.S
However, the position of catheter in the global power battery market is largely due to the domestic market, and its penetration of the US market is still negligible. This is not only reflected in the reports of major consulting agencies on the North American power battery market, which often do not involve the NINGDE era, but also in the revenue data released by the Ningde era.
In 2020, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 1.3 million units, accounting for 41% of the global market. According to the International Energy Agency, annual global electric vehicle sales are expected to be between 23 million and 43 million by 2030, and under the highest estimate, electric vehicles will account for 57% of car sales in China, 26% in Europe and 8% in the United States. The huge domestic market is the fertile soil that can grow up in the Ningde era.
Source: NINGDE Times 2021 Interim Report
According to the 2021 interim report of CATL, as of the half year ended June 30, 2021, the overseas income of CATL was 10.2 billion yuan, accounting for about 23% of the total revenue, and the domestic market is still the main source of its income. Although it is uncertain what percentage of its foreign revenue comes from the U.S. market, it is also possible to glimpse a thing or two from its major customers. The existing contracted customers of CATL include BMW, Dongfeng Motor, Honda, SAIC, Stellantis, Tesla, Volkswagen Group, Volvo Car Group, and only Tesla is an American car company.
In addition, in recent years, power battery manufacturers have been building factories in the three major markets in the world - China, Europe, and the United States, and the Ningde era is no exception. The drastic expansion of the country does not need to be repeated, in Europe, in addition to the German factory "officially announced" in 2018, there is also news that catererdale plans to invest 2 billion euros in Poland. Only in the United States, although there was occasional news that the Cataline era was considering building factories in the United States to achieve localization production, the wording was extremely restrained and the language was vague, and the official never responded. To some extent, the position of the US market in the territory of the Ningde era is not important enough, at least far below China and Europe.
But the United States, with its privileged position in the world economy, prides itself on being the world's police, judges and jury, and is known for its long-arm jurisdiction. The small market share in the United States, to what extent can help the Ningde era to avoid U.S. regulatory risks, but also need to be specifically measured. As the CATL era continues to expand overseas, this risk will also increase significantly. (Proofreader/Sky)