Blockbuster "Digital Economy Planning" document, what are the big investment opportunities?

Author | Shen Peng

Today's plate once again presents a concept switch, new energy continues to plummet, and the hottest, in addition to prefabricated dishes, is the national "14th Five-Year" Digital Economy Development Plan.

At the opening of the market in the morning, there was already a wave of mania.

In today's increasingly in-depth digitalization, while high-tech is constantly positioned as the direction of economic transformation and upgrading, this plan is undoubtedly full of weight, and it also contains investment opportunities in the next 5 years.

However, after a short period of excitement, we have to take a closer look, where is the treasure? Where is the pit?

01

The goal is ambitious

Let's take a look at the overall goal of the plan.

By 2025, the added value of the core industries of the digital economy will account for 10% of GDP, the ability of digital innovation to lead development will be greatly improved, the level of intelligence will be significantly enhanced, the integration of digital technology and the real economy will achieve remarkable results, the digital economy governance system will be more perfect, and the competitiveness and influence of China's digital economy will be steadily improved. The plan also proposes to increase the support for 6G technology research and development, accelerate the layout of satellite communication networks, etc.; strengthen the edge computing capabilities for specific scenarios, strengthen the overall planning of computing power and intelligent scheduling; develop an intelligent economy based on digital technology, and cultivate new growth points such as smart sales, unmanned distribution, intelligent manufacturing, and reverse customization.

If according to the average annual GDP growth rate of 4%, China's GDP in 2025 is 131 trillion yuan, 10% is equal to 13 trillion yuan, the target is ambitious, the volume is large enough, the growth is still considerable, which is equivalent to setting the tone at the macro level, the next 5 years of digital related tracks, not afraid of no business.

However, from the perspective of segmentation, there are also many differences.

From the perspective of growth, the number of the largest gigabit broadband users has increased by almost 10 times, but the number of 60 million broadband users is not very large compared with the number of broadband users in the country.

The second growth pole is the industrial Internet, and the penetration rate of platform applications has risen from 14.7% to 45%, more than 2 times, which is relatively more important. If the application of the 4G network is mainly the C-end, then 5G and even the 6G behind it, the main application is on the B-side, which is also the consensus of the industry, and as one of the most important application scenarios of the B-end, there are many articles that can be done in the field of industrial manufacturing, such as the most said intelligent manufacturing, unmanned operation, if it can really achieve intelligent manufacturing in the strict sense, the economic value and social value created are very large, which is also the most critical step for China from "Made in China" to "China's Intelligent Manufacturing".

In addition to these two doubling segments, the other growth is 1 times or less, and the growth rate is relatively small in comparison. However, it is also understandable that like the total amount of online retail sales in the country, the scale of e-commerce transactions, the base itself has been very large, especially the proportion of total e-commerce transactions in GDP has been as high as 37%, the growth slowdown under the high base is normal, the most important thing is that the development of these two industries has reached a mature period or even a saturation period, it is not easy to have growth, these two areas are also industries that are heavily hammered by supervision in 2021, it is difficult to ask for others.

In general, this plan, the most interesting, I think is still in the field of industrial Internet.

02

What should be fried?

The plan came out yesterday, followed by an overwhelming number of research reports and investment strategies.

However, after today's market test, many of the so-called beneficiary targets have not been cashed. For example, there are many investment reports that fiber optic manufacturers will directly benefit from the growth in the number of gigabit broadband subscribers, but this is not the case.

Because the infrastructure of optical fiber network has actually been completed, especially in 2013, the state proposed the "broadband China" strategy, planned the next 8 years of broadband construction tasks, the most important thing is that the broadband construction has been upgraded to the height of the national strategic public infrastructure for the first time, the specific implementation, mandatory requirements for developers of new buildings, in advance will be into the household optical cable in place, which did not do this work, can not be accepted; and the old residential areas, urban villages these are also in the three major operators and radio and television " Deep coverage" and "village-to-village communication" projects have been further improved.

It is precisely because of this strong strategy that China's broadband network construction is at the forefront of the world. Therefore, if you still think that this plan can make fiber optic manufacturers come to a wave of good, it is obvious that YY is excessive. If nothing else, directly above the chart, as the largest fiber manufacturer, the trend of Hengtong Optoelectronics, high open low, typical news surface speculation, can best explain the problem.

Of course, upgrading from 100 megabits to gigabits does not require infrastructure investment, but the investment in the line will be relatively small, and the main concentration point is still at the equipment level, such as carrier-side transmission equipment, switching equipment and core networks, even if there is no need to add new, expansion is inevitable. However, to be able to eat the benefits of the equipment level, the absolute big head is definitely Huawei and ZTE, but unfortunately the strongest Huawei is not a listed company. On the customer terminal, the broadband has been upgraded, at least the "cat" has to change one, which is also the reason for the concept stock Skyworth digital up and down.

Speaking of today's speculation is hotter, or concentrated in the industrial Internet related concepts, the reason is very simple, the industrial Internet is specific to the industry, the most able to benefit from it, is big data, cloud computing, information security, artificial intelligence and other fields, related targets are also many.

With higher technical content, there are technology giants, such as cloud computing, Ali, Huawei, Tencent occupy the main market share, plus the three major telecom operators, as well as Kingdee, Yonyou and other SaaS vendors, the pattern is basically like this; big data, artificial intelligence, these are basically in the "range" range of the giants.

Therefore, on the medium and long term, betting on these giant manufacturers is also a good choice, especially for the Internet giants that have been hammered for more than a year, this plan may not be a reversal, but it is somewhat of a bit of a charcoal in the snow, because whether from the national level or from the industrial landing level, to really achieve this planning goal, you have to rely on these giants to open up the territory, and the government can not enter the game, of course, the premise is that these giants must "be human".

Perhaps this is the reason why the Internet has ushered in a small climax during this time. There are rumors in the market that the country's hammer on the Internet giants has a slight sense of relaxation, and the investment giants are also shouting to read the bottom. Giants are also well versed in the truth, like Tencent's little brother is very familiar: Tencent in the service of the country and society, to do not lack, do, do not overstep.

Of course, the internet's sharp rise, there are reasons for the fall too badly.

As for other small and medium-sized votes, because the planning release of a wave, will be more fierce, but the follow-up can be sustained, it is not easy to say, the funds to pull, there are factors that rub the concept, there are factors that are small on the plate, and a small part of the funds will casually pull a limit. However, many of the people who are targeted by the floating funds are really rubbing concepts, lacking the support of the underlying logic, usually coming fast, going fast, no accidents, and speculating for a day or two will fall back.

So, it's okay to fry, but don't get on top of it.

03

epilogue

At the end of the year, usually the market is relatively light, the main institutions of people, not in preparation for the year-end summary, or in the want to take a holiday to play, no intention of fighting, plus a year down, the earned also earned, KPI completed, bonus to hand, this time also shot, in case there is something wrong, it is not directly affecting the Mood of the New Year. So those who are still enjoying it in it are probably floating funds and retail investors.

This kind of funding is usually obsessed with the hype of the news, especially policy-related, blockbuster planning documents such as the five-year plan for the digital economy, how can we not take the opportunity to harvest a wave?

Moreover, the recent continuous pullback of new energy, as the largest "gold-sucking beast" last year, the funds that continue to be released also need new undertakings, and from the perspective of funds, it can also explain why the pre-made dishes can be fried in these two days. Instead of constantly emphasizing the sea of stars of prefabricated dishes, it is better to say that there is no money to go, to know the temperament of capital, it is like this: there is a concept to go up, no concept to create a concept to go up, the ultimate purpose is to fry a wave, make a wave, as for the aftermath, is it important?

The recent market, in addition to the style of highland switching, the most obvious is the news surface, policy side, fried Chinese medicine so, fried prepared dishes so, fried digital planning is still so. However, as mentioned earlier, this kind of speculation must come quickly and go fast, because the real benefits of planning for listed companies are long-term, it is as if the moisturizer is silent, it is difficult to say that a plan can double the performance of related listed companies next year, so it is foreseeable that this market is either a one-day trip, or a two-day trip, at most another day, almost.

To really have a better layout time point, it has to be pushed to March and April, at that time, there are both two sessions and an annual report, the former lets you understand what to do with the national economy this year, the latter lets you see which company has a good report card, and more importantly, this point in time is also the time for institutions to adjust their positions and increase their positions.

Therefore, for the recent market, or that sentence, speculation is speculation, don't go up, know how to fall into the bag for safety, is the right way.