Passenger Car Association: Narrow passenger car retail sales expected to reach 2.05 million units in January, down about 6.2% year-on-year

On January 25, the Association of Passenger Vehicles announced that retail sales of narrow passenger cars in January are expected to reach 2.05 million units, down about 6.2% year-on-year, a decline that is smaller than the previous month.

The agency pointed out that the average daily growth rate of the first and second weeks of retail sales in this field was 6% and -2% respectively, and the cumulative increase was 2% year-on-year, mainly affected by the impact of the epidemic in various places, and the improvement of the supply side was relatively limited; the third week of the market continued a stable trend, and it is expected to be about -3% year-on-year; the strength of the impulse at the end of the fourth week will be less than in previous years due to supply constraints, and one working day less than last year, and the average daily sales volume is expected to be -15% year-on-year. According to the January retail target survey, more than 80% of the overall market manufacturers have a negative year-on-year growth of about 7%. According to this comprehensive estimate, retail sales of narrow passenger cars will reach about 2.05 million units in January, down about 6.2% year-on-year.

Weekly average daily retail sales of major manufacturers; image source: Multiplying Association

Specifically, this performance is mainly affected by multiple factors. According to the analysis of the Association of Passenger Transporters, with the gradual strengthening of production and batch sales in the past few months, the overall market supply has shown a warming trend, and manufacturers have actively welcomed the New Year's "opening red". The Spring Festival in 2022 is earlier than in previous years, and with the frequent occurrence of local epidemic points, various localities still advocate the local New Year, but the volume is lower than last year, and the increase in pre-holiday promotion efforts has also boosted the tide of homecoming car purchases. In terms of the new energy market, due to the impact of centralized delivery at the end of last year, sales in early January were weak, but there was a significant recovery in the second and third weeks, and it is expected to maintain a triple-digit year-on-year increase by the end of the month.

It is worth noting that although the performance of the new energy market in January was not as good as last month, the China Automobile Dealers Association said that in the context of the transformation of the automotive industry with the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality", it is expected that the new energy market will continue to grow this year, and consumer acceptance will further increase. At the same time, the agency also pointed out that the recent Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng, BYD and other new energy head manufacturers have increased the terminal transaction price on the grounds of subsidy adjustment, and the impact on new energy sales still needs to be further observed.