Wen 丨 Chinese business tao strategy Ze Liang
【1】
I don't understand why there are still people who want to buy fuel cars now, in addition to being able to smell the gasoline smell, what is good There is charging anxiety, basically the heart of gasoline car users to electric vehicles...
Li Bin, who speaks amazingly again and again, always reminds people of Musk, who is also famous for his big mouth, and Weilai and Tesla do have some similarities:
Build a car that most people can't afford, then use the money you earn to build a cheaper car, then use the money you earn to build a cheaper car, and finally build a car that everyone can afford.
From the concept sports car Roadmaster, to the million-priced Model S/X luxury electric car, to the Model 3 that really pushed Tesla to the top, Musk pushed Tesla upwards step by step with a sinking price.
Looking at Weilai, in 2016, it released the first EP9 known as the "world's fastest electric vehicle", priced at 9 million, with a performance of 6 minutes and 45 seconds and 900 seconds, creating the fastest lap time of internationally renowned tracks such as the Nürburgring Nord.
After becoming famous in the racing circle, the following year, WEILAI released the concept car EVE, and the first mass production car ES8 was listed at the end of the year, and the benchmark version was priced at 448,000 yuan, directly entering the high-end market. At that time, looking at the domestic independent car manufacturers, none of the first mass production cars dared to rush to this price.
Even so, WEIO ES8 has also successfully opened up the market. In the national pure electric SUV sales in 2018, the ES8 ranked fourth with 11,379 units of delivery - the first three models represented by BYD Yuan EV, the volume of around 100,000.
Weilai ES8 is unique in the domestic new energy vehicle market at a price comparable to BBA, and the subsequent ES6 and EC6 models are priced even if they are in the range of 300,000-450,000, and sales have not collapsed.
Excited Li Bin has repeatedly said publicly: "It is only a matter of time before tesla is surpassed."
However, time is not the answer to everything. The key for Li Bin to catch up with Musk is to create a "Model 3"-style "Pinduoduo" product - the price sinks and boosts sales.
According to the latest data released by Tesla, Tesla's global deliveries reached 936,000 units in 2021, of which the Model 3 and Y models reached 910,000 units, accounting for more than 97% of the total deliveries. Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory, which claims to build a car in 38 seconds, exports 130,000 of the 160,000 vehicles exported to more than a dozen countries in Eurasia are Model 3s.
The Wright model in the automotive industry points out that a 100% increase in sales can reduce production costs by 10%, which is equivalent to increasing profit margins by 10%.
The economies of scale brought by Model 3 not only raised Tesla's gross profit margin to 30.4% (17.2% for Weilai), but also continuously consolidated the supply chain control ability through the annual delivery of millions of units, making Tesla an "apple in the field of new energy vehicles".
And these advantages happen to be Weilai's weaknesses.
【2】
In 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the mainland will grow against the trend, with the industry average reaching 178%, but the growth level of Weilai is only 120%, which is obviously not passed.
The most important reason is that the "supply chain" problem is not done well.
In July last year, Xiaopeng and Ideal delivered both 8,000 new cars, and Weilai was 7,931, losing the title of the champion of new car delivery of new forces for the first time.
In August, Bosch's ESP chip was forced to reduce production due to the epidemic, and the output of Weilai ES6/EC6 using ESP chips was forced to be reduced, and the sales volume of the month fell to 5880 units, down a quarter from the previous month, not only continued to be thrown away by Xiaopeng and Ideal, but also surpassed by the second-tier new force car Nezha Automobile for the first time, falling out of the top three.
Interestingly, the ideal ONE delivery volume, which also uses ESP chips, has not only not declined, but has also repeatedly reached new highs.
At that time, some insiders pointed out that on the one hand, only one model of the ideal parts reserve is more sufficient, on the other hand, the sales of the ideal ONE is much higher than the ES6/EC6 models, in the state of shortage, the supplier is more willing to give priority to the supply of models with guaranteed delivery.
Weilai car owners, who have been waiting for months and cannot pick up the car, complained to the media, "Weilai's supply chain capabilities are far worse than I thought." Li Bin's sentence "Our Jianghuai foundry is better than Porsche's!" "It has also been repeatedly complained about.
Shortly thereafter, the Jianghuai factory was forced to stop production for several days due to "lack of core", and Li Bin once again suffered a loss without "Pinduoduo".
On the contrary, Xiaopeng and Ideal, who are in the same echelon as Weilai, although there are also production reduction problems, have launched various reduction delivery plans, such as reducing the allocation of radar first, and then making up for it when the supply is sufficient.
It can be seen that Weilai's supply chain problem is obviously not solved by a few radars, and Weilai's decline is directly reflected in the capital market.
At the beginning of 2021, WEILAI's market value reached 60 billion US dollars, far exceeding the ideal of Xiaopeng of 20 billion US dollars and less than 20 billion US dollars, ranking first in the "Wei Xiaoli"; by February 7, 2022, the market value of Weilai, which was affected by production capacity, had fallen by more than 20 billion US dollars, while the ideal was 29.6 billion US dollars and Xiaopeng was 31.8 billion US dollars.
In the latest January 2022 report card released by the three companies, Ideal and Xiaopeng delivered 12268 and 12922 new cars respectively, an increase of more than 110% year-on-year, but Weilai only delivered 9652 vehicles, an increase of 33.6% year-on-year.
Change is urgent for Weilai.
【3】
ET5 has a long way to go.
In the case of the average price of WEIlai models of about 440,000, after purchasing battery rental services, the price of ET5 can sink to 250,000 yuan.
The result of pre-selling 100,000 vehicles was once crowded to the collapse of the Weilai APP, and Li Bin was happy to shout: This is the most ordered in history.
"The opponent of the ET5 will be two 3s, the Tesla Model 3 and the BMW 3 Series."
Judging from the two models that Li Bin benchmarked, Weilai's volume strategy is about to come out - one is the explosive model that occupies half of the world's new energy, and the other is the B-class (medium-sized) car sales crown model of the BBA camp.
However, looking back at the Model 3's blockbuster path – going through a "capacity hell" (insufficient capacity that prevents pre-sale orders to be delivered), a large number of deliveries, and Tesla's final jump – the ET5 challenge has only just begun. In the process, it is possible to fall at any time.
At the end of 2021, the new energy vehicle company Rivian ended with a dismal actual delivery of 920 vehicles, and its officials said that this situation will continue due to supply chain problems.
With the news of its largest shareholder, Amazon, switching to a rival company, Rivian's market value fell below the issue price.
And it was still unlimited a year ago, and was even rated as the new energy car company most likely to surpass Tesla, such a big ups and downs, but also made Musk's sentence "first pass the production capacity hell this pass and then say it", particularly harsh.
It can be seen that how to complete a large number of orders for ET5 in the case of supply chain crisis, and then open up the supply chain through sales feedback, is a fist-to-flesh hard battle that Weilai and Li Bin will fight.
At the same time, how to maintain the high-end brand value of Weilai and its most proud "differentiated service" in the process of sinking is also a problem that can be seen by the naked eye.
At the time of the rapid development of the industry, Li Bin and Weilai have been pushed to an inflection point. The bold words that Li Bin once released also needed ET5 to pay the bill.
【References】
[1] Titanium Media "Long-termism, Niolai's Yang Scheme"
[2] The Paper, "Wei Xiaoli Breaks New Pass: Rivals, Cycles and Supply Chains"
[3] The Economic Observer, Li Bin's "New World""
——END——
Welcome to pay attention to [Huashang Taoluo], recognize the heroes, and read the legend of Taoli.
All rights reserved, unauthorized reproduction is prohibited!
Some of the images come from the Internet
If infringement is involved, please contact to delete it