Sharp Edge/Vertical Theory
In today's world, the economic development of all countries is not particularly good, and very few countries can develop at a growth rate of more than 4%, and the majority of countries with a low degree of development is the mainstay. The top three in the world economic rankings, the United States, China and Japan, appear to be unshakable. However, in recent years, india's economic development momentum in recent years has been very good, in 2019, India's total GDP reached 2.85 trillion US dollars, a one-year economic growth rate of 5.3%, surpassing the Uk and France to become the world's fifth largest economy.
If India's economic growth continues to grow at a rate of more than 5% per year, then by 2029, that is, after nine years, Japan, the third place in the world economic aggregate ranking, will be replaced by India, and its development momentum will catch up with China. However, the gap between the numbers and the actual situation is very large, and no matter what problems and moisture India's economic development has been in the past few years, objectively speaking, India still has four serious problems to be solved, and it will be difficult to maintain rapid economic growth without solving them, let alone surpassing Japan to catch up with China.
First, India's population used to be an advantage, but it could become a disadvantage in the future. Although it is feasible to increase the available labor force and demographic dividend of the country by the number of people, the social security problem after the population increase cannot be ignored, whether it is education, medical care, pension or environmental protection, all of which are affected by demographic factors. In the past, India did very little in these aspects, relying solely on the demographic dividend brought by the large number of people to obtain rapid development on paper, but how to cope with the challenges brought by the large population, the Indian side has not yet come up with a feasible strategy. It can be said that it is unrealistic to expect economic growth from continued population expansion, and if this is feasible, then it will be too easy for China to rush to the first place in the world, and it will be enough not to carry out family planning.
(India's infrastructure is extremely weak)
Secondly, India's natural environment problems are very serious, although India's land, especially the cultivated land area is vast, but the country's agriculture is backward, agricultural infrastructure is very poor, more than half of the arable land is irrigated by rainwater, and "rain and heat are different periods". Coupled with the underdevelopment of related farming techniques, the lack of mechanized agricultural equipment and strong fertilizer productivity, resulting in large land but not much grain. Considering that a large number of people need food, India's food production capacity is not optimistic, which is why India is extremely nervous in the face of locust plagues, because once the locust plague causes a large-scale reduction in food production, India does not have any excess power to balance food production. At the same time, India's environmental pollution problem is very serious, fresh water is very scarce, and industrial and domestic garbage flooding is no news, India's mother river Ganges River is about to become a garbage river, if you continue to ignore pollution and do not control, then the consequences may be catastrophic.
Finally, India's high economic growth is extremely unoptimistic economic data, which is doomed to high growth will not continue. On the one hand, India's external debt is too heavy, and there is a fiscal deficit threat similar to that of the United States. Although India has $400 billion in foreign exchange reserves, at the end of last year, India's external debt was as high as $1.19 trillion, and once the debt-holder countries make a large-scale attack, it is difficult for India to step down, unlike the United States, which can at least print dollars. On the other hand, India's primary and secondary industries account for too low a proportion and insufficient industrial capacity, which has become a bomb for economic development. In fact, India's unemployment rate soared by 27% during this year's epidemic, and the decline in the manufacturing PMI data in April ranked first among the world's major countries, which is actually the result of India's own unstable economic foundation and the prototype under the impact of the epidemic.
For India, the welfare guarantee needed by the population, the maintenance of national resources and environment, and the foundation of unstable economic development are all hidden serious problems, and if these problems are not solved, India will not mention surpassing Japan, let alone surpassing China.