I think it is very interesting to visualize the risk data and think qualitatively about some problems from it.
In January 2022, the number of new energy vehicles insured was 313,000 units (up 113% year-on-year), a decrease of 35% month-on-month. The number of pure electric vehicles insured was 241,000 units (y/y: 103%) and PHEV was 72,000 units (up 161% yoy).
I personally have several dimensions of judgment:
● The overall growth momentum of new energy vehicles is mainly from independent brands; we compare the growth rate of pure electricity and plug-in hybrid (the latter remains in the range of 160%-180%), and we can further see that it mainly comes from BYD and ideals - from the perspective of 2022, the growth potential of this piece is very large, may exceed 100,000 per month after March, and it is expected to achieve the threshold of 150,000 by the end of this year, and it is also very possible to go to 1.5 million throughout the year.
● Structural changes in pure electric vehicle models: Due to the pressure of cost, the black cat and white cat of the Great Wall temporarily control the output - from the perspective of big logic, the A00 car is within 80,000 models, and the strategy of running points or buying points changes makes it more reasonable for the structure of pure electric vehicle models to develop to A or above.
In January, the highest number of A-class new energy vehicles (including BEV and PHEV), increased by 188% year-on-year to 96,000 units. It was followed by A00 and B, with 64% and 60% yoy-y to 79,000 units and 58,000 units, respectively. Compared with the increment, A-class is also the segment with the largest increment in the new energy vehicle market; the growth trend of A00-class vehicles is also very strong, with B-class and C-class increments of about 22,000 vehicles. That is to say, the pure electricity market of 250,000-300,000 has been stabilized, and the breakthrough will test the price increase, even if it is a rush in 2022, a complete decline in 2023, whether it can maintain sustained and stable growth, we look here more like to see the stability of the structure.
● Penetration rate improvement: Assuming a higher base penetration rate, the premise of the establishment is that consumers are fully identified with new energy (PHEV + BEV), and under the limited market share of joint venture brands, to further improve the new energy penetration rate of independent brands, we must consider the profitability of independent brands and two types of models.
Because the core logic is that the substitution process means a higher cost performance, or that the consumer can see the core of the replacement driver.
▲Figure 1: Penetration from each train
Figure 2: Penetration rate of each brand
Part 1
Analyze by major vehicle model
●Pure electric vehicle type
From the perspective of pure electric vehicle insurance alone, the highest is 79,000 A00-class cars (+64% year-on-year), representing the Model Wuling Hongguang Mini. The number of A-class BEVs was 62,000 units (+150% yoy), representing the model Qin PLUS. The B-class BEV was insured at 45,000 units (+58% yoy-y), representing the Model Y. The top 10 models in the pure electricity are Hongguang Mini, Model Y, Dolphin, Han EV, QQ Ice Cream, Yuan Pro, Nezha V, Benben EV, Xiaopeng P7 and Euler Good Cat.
Figure 3.The situation of the pure electric vehicle model in January
●PHEV models and HEV models
I think that in 2022, BYD DM-i's win is based on the high cost performance after its own powertrain upgrade, and then with the power of Geely and the Great Wall DHT models, and even Chery and other follow-up can replace PHEV powertrain models, this market logic has a lot of possibilities.
Figure 4.Ranking of PHEV models in January
The Japanese HEV is still around the logic of fuel saving, and at the same time, the strategy of autonomous PHEV is actually similar to the way HEV is played. From the perspective of independent brands, the increase is a longer life cycle, so this trend is the beginning of a longer cycle of powertrain replacement.
Figure 5.HeV model ranking in January
It can be said that around the city's tough battle, PHEV's playing style can make independent brand cars stand in second-tier cities.
Figure 6.The shift in the sales of fuel vehicles to HEVs and PHEV in cities is stable and continuous
In terms of the total number of new energy vehicles, first-tier cities (50,000) are no longer the areas with the highest amount of new energy vehicles, but are replaced by second-tier cities (77,600 units) and 1.5-tier cities (76,900 units), with a total of 52,000 third-tier cities (Figure 7).
My understanding is that the penetration of BEV in the third line mainly relies on low-priced cars, but the main body of the market in 2022 is still a higher-priced car.
Figure 7: Distribution of sales in major pure electric vehicle cities
That is to say, to remove the high growth of low-priceD A00 and A0, with the entry of A-class and B-class cars that bring major increments, similar price points in PK in different provinces, PHEV will be relatively quick to level the market data with BEV, then the current 8:2 relationship between BEV and PHEV with Chinese characteristics may evolve into a 6:4 relationship in the future.
▲Figure 8.Comparison of new energy vehicle types in provinces
Part 2
Price and rating
The above conclusion is mainly based on the sales analysis of different model levels: the PHEV that was completely crushed by BEV before was mainly concentrated in the A00 sedan, A0 sedan and small SUVs, and the increase of this piece is peaking. In other ring-in-the-box markets, because of the dominance of BEVs (except for the Model Y market).
Figure 9.Comparison of PHEV, HEV and BEV in January
If we add a price dimension to the market data analysis, this logic may be clearer: the market where THE PHEV is located is in two large blocks of 10-150,000 and 20-350,000, and in this price range, the growth rate is considerable. If you want to enter the range below 100,000, the price increase of battery costs by 10-30% is 30% including the subsidy decline of 30%, and the price war is very difficult.
Figure 10:The replacement of fuel vehicles by new energy from January
Therefore, with the intensive development in 2021, by the second half of 2022, the PHEV update products of each company will accelerate the expansion into the market, and the theme of this year is to promote the brand image of PEV+ to raise the BEV, from a simple amount of new energy (relying on micro-car running points) to more quality growth.
▲ Figure 11.Each brand leads the pure electricity, and the one-sided PHEV is not much
Summary: This trend can be verified in May-June.
The rise in battery costs, in fact, compressed the living space of 50,000-80,000, or everyone does ultra-low-end models within 50,000, or to do more than 150,000 pure electric vehicles, the high-quality development of PHEV has become a must-answer question for all independent brands engaged in traditional powertrains.