The new energy subsidy policy that has been rumored for a long time has finally been completely cancelled. A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance and other 12 departments proposed to continue to implement new energy vehicle purchase subsidies, charging facilities awards, vehicle and vessel tax reduction and reduction preferential policies in 2022, but the subsidy margin is 30% lower than in 2021.
It is worth mentioning that the relevant departments also confirmed that the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles implemented since 2009 will be officially terminated in 2022, that is, new energy vehicles licensed after December 31 this year will no longer be subsidized.
In fact, according to the original plan, in 2020, the state had planned to "one-size-fits-all" new energy subsidies, but under the influence of the epidemic, the state adjusted the subsidy policy and adopted a gradient withdrawal strategy, that is, from 2020, the subsidy amount was reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% every year until 2022.
Subsidies for the retreat of sentient beings
Now the subsidy decline of 30% and the official cancellation of the subsidy policy at the end of 2022 have been confirmed, which will undoubtedly have a great impact on the entire new energy industry.
For the subsidy decline and eventual cancellation, the response of various car companies is different, of which Tesla's performance is the most positive. In December last year, in order to cope with the rising cost pressure brought about by the decline in subsidies, Tesla raised the price of the domestic Model 3 rear-wheel drive version, the Model 3 rear-wheel drive ordinary version, and the Model Y rear-wheel drive ordinary version by nearly 5,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan in just one week.
Different from Tesla's direct price increase, after the subsidy decline, Xiaopeng and Weilai Automobile adopted an insurance policy, in which Weilai issued an announcement on December 1, as long as it orders a car before December 31 (except ET5/ET7), and before March 31, it can enjoy the 2021 subsidy standard, while Xiaopeng Automobile issued a policy on December 24, clearly stating that as long as it is decided before January 11, it can enjoy the 2021 subsidy standard.
Although the introduction of a limited-time insurance policy car companies in each subsidy is about to decline the common method, such as the cancellation of the land subsidy in 2019, including BYD and many car companies have also launched a "delayed price insurance" strategy, but this time unlike 2019, there is room for relaxation, so since entering 2022, basically most of the car companies have implemented the price increase policy like Tesla, before BYD has caused controversy because of the price increase of the whole series.
It is worth mentioning that in this subsidy decline policy, the biggest impact should be like zero run 03 type of micro-electric vehicles that are just sandwiched between 300-400km. Compared with 2021, this type of micro-electric vehicle subsidy is nearly 4,000 yuan less. Because the cost has inevitably to be increased, in order to cope with the impact of the policy, the 2022 zero-run T03 launched by the zero-running car will simply raise the price of the whole vehicle by about 10,000 yuan, and at the same time further strengthen the intelligence and auxiliary driving of the vehicle, in order to impact the higher level of market segmentation.
Different from the strategy of zero-run cars, although the Euler brand also has two models of black cat and white cat in this range, with the rise of good cats, it has stopped production of black and white cats most affected by subsidies and directly impacted the high-end market.
Subsidy decline and even subsidy cancellation policy has been the trend of the times, but there are also car companies are still struggling, for example, the general manager of GAC Group has previously suggested that it is hoped that the subsidy policy will be introduced as soon as possible to maintain the stability and continuity of the policy, and for the market and consumer demand, continue the comprehensive subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, and accurately set subsidy standards for eligible models. At the same time, we can refer to the practice of introducing multi-year subsidy policies at the national level and extend the subsidy policy until 2025.
Although the suggestion of the general manager of GAC Group is positive for the entire new energy industry, in the context of the consensus that the subsidy decline has been formed, his proposal obviously cannot stop the determination of the cancellation of the subsidy policy, and the new energy subsidy policy launched in 2009 has indeed reached the time to retire.
Why is the subsidy policy being abolished?
For the original intention of the subsidy setting of new energy vehicles, the purpose is to enhance the technology of new energy vehicles, achieve scale effects, and cultivate a sound new energy vehicle industry chain, so since 2009, the mainland has introduced more than 60 new energy industry policies.
Starting in 2009 and ending in 2022, the new energy subsidy policy has been extended for nearly 13 years. According to incomplete statistics, the mainland has subsidized a total of 147.8 billion yuan, subsidizing more than 1.9159 million new energy vehicles. Of course, the introduction of subsidy policies has brought some industry chaos. In the early years, new energy vehicles also had the problem of "cheating". In the face of huge subsidy concessions, some enterprises even risk their lives and only want to defraud subsidies through various methods. In 2016, the Ministry of Finance disclosed in the "Special Inspection of Subsidy Funds for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" that among the five typical cases of automobile fraud exposed by it, the five "giant rats" involved 1 billion yuan in funds, of which Golden Dragon United Automobile Industry (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. involved 1683 vehicles, with an amount of up to 519.21 million yuan.
In order to promote the benign development of the new energy industry, avoid bad money expelling good money. On December 20, 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's website issued a document "Severely Punishing the Fraudulent Compensation behavior of new energy vehicles to regulate the industrial development order", and at the same time issued four administrative punishment decisions, giving administrative penalties to the Four Typical Cases of Fraud and Compensation in Suzhou Golden Dragon, Henan Shaolin Bus, Chery Wanda Guizhou Bus, and Shenzhen Wuzhou Dragon notified by the Ministry of Finance on September 8.
Although the deception once caused domestic consumers to have a poor impression of new energy vehicles, with the continuous improvement of subsidy policies and the rapid development of new energy vehicle technology, after more than ten years of cultivation, domestic new energy vehicles have long grown from the previous teeth and teeth to a vibrant young adult.
In the past 2021, the total wholesale volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 3.312 million units, an increase of 181.0% year-on-year. In terms of penetration rate, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2021 will reach 14.8%, which is significantly higher than the 5.8% penetration rate in 2020. Due to the good situation, the Association predicts that the sales of new energy passenger vehicles will reach more than 5.5 million units in 2022, and the penetration rate is expected to reach about 25%.
There is no doubt that China has become the world's largest new energy market, and judging from the sales volume in January, the news of the decline or even cancellation of the subsidy policy has obviously not affected the enthusiasm of consumers to buy new energy vehicles. On February 18, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released the latest phase of automobile production and sales, of which the sales of new energy vehicles in January were 431,000 units, an increase of 1.4 times year-on-year. In terms of penetration, the domestic new energy passenger car market share reached 19.2% in January, higher than the level of the whole year last year.
As for why this phenomenon occurs, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred Association, has previously said that from the perspective of the growth of non-restricted cities, the consumption of new energy vehicles has completely moved towards marketization. For the price increase phenomenon that appeared after the subsidy decline, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, also made it clear that "price increase is a short-term phenomenon, from the perspective of market competition, as more and more car companies begin to transform new energy, and technology continues to progress, price decline will become a long-term trend."
It is undeniable that with the advancement of technology and the development of the industry, the promotion of financial subsidies for the already mature new energy automobile industry at this stage has been very small, in addition, with the strengthening of non-subsidy factors such as double integration, carbon emissions, and traffic restrictions, the impact of new energy vehicle subsidy withdrawal will not be too large.
It is worth mentioning that most of the subsidy retreats are only about 2,000-5,000 yuan, compared with the 30,000-50,000 yuan after the cancellation of the ground time in 2019, the magnitude of this retreat is not at all in an order of magnitude. In general, whether it is from the perspective of alleviating the financial pressure of the country or from the perspective of the rapid outbreak of the new energy market in China, the new energy subsidy policy has reached the time of success and retirement.
What's next challenge with purchase tax?
Nowadays, subsidies have declined or even canceled subsidies, but domestic new energy vehicle companies cannot sit back and relax. After all, the subsidy policy is already about to be withdrawn, will the purchase tax incentive be far away?
In fact, although the relevant departments did not clearly state at the previous meeting of the subsidy decline that the purchase tax concession will eventually be cancelled, from the current soaring new energy vehicle market and the vague response of the relevant departments, it is only a matter of time before the new energy purchase tax concession is withdrawn.
There is no doubt that the purchase tax preferential policy will be the sword of Daphymous hanging in all new energy vehicle companies, and it depends on the consideration of the relevant departments as to when it falls. Different from the 30% decline in subsidies this time, the impact of the cancellation of the preferential purchase tax policy is industry-wide, and the number is even larger, often 30,000-50,000, which will undoubtedly have a great impact on the current new energy market. This is not alarmist.
The uncertainty of when to cancel the purchase tax preferential policy will force new energy vehicle companies to quickly improve their product strength, otherwise once the purchase tax incentive is canceled, then the current price advantage of new energy vehicle companies will disappear, and then not only need to face the competition of new energy vehicles, but also stand on the same starting line again with fuel vehicles.
It is foreseeable that in the near future, with the withdrawal of subsidy policies and the cancellation of purchase tax incentives, new energy vehicles can only rely on product strength to stand out. As Ma Chunsheng, director of the Automobile Division of the Equipment Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said: "With the increasing scale of new energy promotion and application, whether its products can be sold is mainly whether the product quality is recognized by users, rather than just for subsidy policies."