The situation in Russia and Ukraine has changed suddenly, and the arguments on the island about "Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow" have once again become very popular. If Qi Fei is not mistaken, just a few months ago, the same version of the "Afghanistan today, Taiwan tomorrow" statement circulated on the island. Looking at it together, "Yesterday's Afghanistan, today's Ukraine, tomorrow's Taiwan", the role of the Taiwan region is related to Afghanistan and Ukraine, how to look at it is not a thing worth optimistic.
At present, the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen authorities are clinging to the thighs of the United States and Japan and betting on the Biden administration, and it is an indisputable fact that "relying on the United States for independence" and "relying on the United States to resist the mainland" is an indisputable fact known to the world. The Taiwan authorities are even working on the drama of following the trend in sanctioning Russia and adding drama to themselves to highlight the "important position" of Taiwan semiconductors in the layout of the world semiconductor industry. However, the Taiwan issue is of course fundamentally different from the Ukrainian issue and the Afghan issue, but public opinion interprets this correlation, and the biggest "commonality" is of course because the role positioning of the parties involved has its consistency. chip? Or a bridgehead, a gripper? No matter what it is, I believe that the Taiwan authorities will not be happy or admit that they will directly pretend to sleep.
According to The Eastern Sen News report, some Taiwanese netizens posted the "2022 Global Military Ranking" on the island's hottest PTT forum, the top three are the United States, Russia, Chinese mainland, Ukraine ranks 22nd, it is worth noting that Taiwan has one more than Ukraine, that is, 21. This immediately triggered a large number of netizens on the island. The reality of Ukraine has also given Taiwan politicians a naked slap in the face: Is there a tomorrow for "seeking independence by force"? Is there a way out?
Of course, the Taiwan authorities should draw lessons from the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and they are neither watching the fire from the other side nor busy cutting it. The situation in Russia and Ukraine has given Taiwan at least two enlightenments: First, under the struggle for hegemony between international powers, small and medium-sized countries and regions such as Ukraine can only swing between dependence and obedience. Numerous analyses have pointed out that small States have very limited options for achieving national security, either to be attached to the big ones or to remain completely neutral. Expanding the army on its own can only cope with the temporary situation, and in the long run it will inevitably lead to economic collapse. The Taiwan region is in the context and pattern of the Sino-US game, and no matter how it chooses, it must have a very sober self-awareness and preparation, which is very important.
Look at Ukrainian President Zelenskiy's lament today: "We defend our country alone." Just like yesterday, the world's most powerful country is watching from a distance," he said more frankly in a video speech not long ago, after Russia launched a military operation against Ukraine, "we have been defending our country alone" "Who is ready to fight with us?" I didn't see anyone. Everyone is afraid. Is it only a question of the United States and the West that Ukraine has become a "sacrificial product" in the mouth of public opinion? The answer is self-explanatory.
Second, although the situation in Russia and Ukraine has not yet come out, the situation is basically clear, the geopolitics of Europe will be rewritten, the interests of major powers will be re-divided, and the West will even have to make strategic adjustments again, to some extent, even a "win-win" situation. The situation in Russia is difficult, but it is not impossible to usher in a turnaround by gritting its teeth, not to mention that Putin has a lot of "bottom cards" in his hands, nuclear weapons, oil, energy, food... The only loser is the Ukrainian side, with displaced people scattered and the economy collapsing, as for the top echelons of the government? The latest news is that Zelenskiy is ready to start negotiations with Russia, but the Ukrainian side needs to be guaranteed security. Can his safety be guaranteed? And do and see.
In a word, the international political reality is cruel and the principle of interests is supreme, and all parties concerned must clarify their role positioning, so as not to become a real battlefield for the struggle of major powers.