Zhitong Finance APP was informed that according to Cui Dongshu's personal calculations, according to the automobile production data, the battery demand from January to December 2021 was 155.42 million kWh, an increase of 143% year-on-year. Although lithium iron phosphate is developing rapidly, it is a trend to increase energy density, and the proportion of ternary batteries in December 2021 is still the main position. Due to the slow improvement of domestic battery technology, production capacity determines sales, and lithium iron phosphate recovers and grows too fast.
From the perspective of battery supporting characteristics, the market competition pattern has changed dramatically, and the overall advantage of Ningde Era (300750.SZ), LG, ANDD (002594.SZ) is obvious. The performance of second-tier enterprises has changed dramatically, and AVIC Lithium Battery, Hefei Guoxuan, Hive Energy, etc. have performed well with the high growth of supporting enterprises.
Recommendation: High energy density batteries should be encouraged and on-board cobalt resource reserves should be increased
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology clearly pointed out that the power battery of new energy vehicles is facing the pressure of lithium, cobalt and nickel and other ore resource guarantees and price increases, and it is necessary to improve the key resource guarantee capabilities such as lithium, cobalt and nickel.
At present, the constraints on the development of new energy vehicles are the guarantee of resources such as cobalt, so there is an idea of developing lithium iron phosphate. The development of new energy passenger cars in 2021 mainly lies in the huge increase in lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Recently, the high energy density trend of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States is obvious, especially the US electric pickup truck market is about to grow significantly, increasing the demand for high-end batteries. We should also accelerate the installation of high-energy density batteries, realize the full use of cobalt resources, turn cobalt ore stocks into on-board cobalt stocks, and achieve effective allocation of cobalt ore resources through policy guidance and improve the guarantee of nickel and cobalt lithium resources.
Due to the huge scale of the U.S. pickup truck market, coupled with the future of U.S. heavy-duty truck products are also to use ternary batteries, the future worldwide demand for ternary batteries will be very large. The United States develops new energy vehicles, and the current demand highlight is in pickup trucks. The latest R1T, launched by American pickup startup Rivian, is loaded with a 135-degree battery and requires 48 kWh of energy to travel 160 kilometers. Rivian plans to launch a larger 180 kWh battery pack in 2022 that will provide a range of 640 kilometers. At present, there is not much room for battery placement inside the pickup, while the 2170 battery provides 135 kilowatts of power, and the high energy density battery similar to the 4680 battery is estimated to reach 180 kilowatts.
Although the price of cobalt ore is high, we are subsidizing high-tech and cobalt resources. For consumers, the purchase of ternary batteries, because the value of cobalt ore is actually value-added, consumers buy ternary batteries may be the most valuable resource when scrapping the car, the value of recycled batteries is also higher, and consumers after subsidies should also be happy to accept.
This year's top three domestic battery companies are Ningde Times, BYD and LG batteries, with different lines. China's current external resource environment is still very good, the current relationship between Chile, Congo, Indonesia and other countries are well maintained, encourage high-energy density batteries, increase vehicle cobalt resource reserves, and obtain better resource guarantees for energy transformation.
First, the overall demand characteristics of new energy batteries
1. Demand for new energy vehicles and batteries in 2021
According to Cui Dongshu's personal calculations, according to the automobile production data, the output of new energy vehicles in December 2021 was 490,000 units, an increase of 114% year-on-year and 21% month-on-month; the total installed battery capacity was about 22.96 million kWh, an increase of 85% year-on-year. From January to December 2021, the battery demand was 155.42 million kWh, an increase of 143% year-on-year.
In terms of the loading volume released by the Battery Alliance, in the first 12 months, the loading volume of continental power batteries accumulated 154.5GWh, an increase of 142.8% year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative loading volume of ternary batteries was 74.3GWh, accounting for 48.1% of the total installed vehicles, an increase of 91.3% year-on-year; the cumulative loading of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 79.8GWh, accounting for 51.7% of the total installed vehicles, an increase of 227.4% year-on-year.
2. Overall battery demand characteristics
In 2021, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has not been significantly reduced, basically continuing the policy of 2020, so the demand for new energy vehicles and batteries in 2021 has shown a strong growth state.
Overall subsidies in 2021 are at a low level. Subsequently, the demand from January to December this year rose rapidly, resulting in a rapid growth rate in the current battery demand.
3. Production data of new energy vehicles over the years
The growth rate of new energy vehicle products in 2020 is low, but the new energy vehicles in the second half of 2020 are extremely hot, and the growth rate of the whole vehicle in January-December 2021 returns to high growth, which also reflects the high base pressure resolution.
4. The structure characteristics of battery demand are obvious
The battery demand from January to December 2021 was 155.42 million kWh, which was significantly better than the 64.05 million kWh demand for batteries in January to December 2020. As the interference factors before and after the subsidy decline in 2019 disappeared, the battery demand in July-December 2020 and 2021 was relatively strong.
5. The battery demand structure of various models has obvious characteristics
From January to December this year, the demand for passenger car batteries continued to rise, increasing by 2 times year-on-year, and the performance was stronger. The battery demand for passenger cars was better from January to December last year, and this year's month-on-month continued to strengthen, and the demand grew steadily.
Battery demand is basically the same as vehicle production demand, but the single-vehicle battery load at the end of the year is large, driving demand growth.
This year, due to the impact of the epidemic, the battery demand for passenger cars in January and December is strong, compared with the high level at the end of last year, and the battery growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 has increased strongly.
Since the production and consumption of batteries are at a different pace, battery use at the end of the year should deplete a large amount of upfront inventory. However, the production of new energy vehicles in January is still very good, so the production capacity of batteries seems to be very strong.
Second, the battery demand characteristics of new energy vehicle products
1. Battery demand characteristics of vehicle products - according to the perspective of battery quantity
The above data is the data of battery power, which was 56.64 million kWh in 2018, 62.18 million kWh in 2019, and 64.09 million kWh in 2020, with a higher increase in quantity and a breakthrough of 150G in January-December 2021.
The proportion of ternary batteries in 2020 reached 64%, down 2 percentage points from 2019. The proportion of ternary lithium in January-December 2021 decreased slightly, and the proportion of ternary lithium batteries in December 2021 reached 50%. Lithium iron phosphate remains stable. The demand for lithium manganate is gradually weakening. Lithium titanate has basically no market.
In terms of the loading volume released by the Battery Alliance, from January to December 2021, the loading volume of continental power batteries accumulated 154.5GWh, an increase of 142.8% year-on-year, of which the cumulative loading volume of ternary batteries was 74.3GWh, accounting for 48.1% of the total installed vehicles, a cumulative increase of 91.3% year-on-year; the cumulative loading of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 79.8GWh, accounting for 51.7% of the total installed vehicles, a cumulative increase of 227.4% year-on-year.
2. Structural requirements for ternary lithium batteries
Ternary lithium batteries have continued to grow explosively in recent years, with an average annual growth rate of about 100%, and the demand for ternary lithium batteries in 2020 will reach 41.08 million degrees, of which the first half of the year is relatively weak, and the growth in the second half of the year is strong. Although the trend in 2021 was flat in 2020, it was relatively better than in 2020, especially in the first quarter.
3. Lithium iron phosphate battery demand
In 2019, the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries was relatively stable, and the overall demand reached 20.14 million degrees, down 9% compared with the same period in 2018.
In 2021, the battery demand in September-December is higher, and the year-on-year growth is huge.
The demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries has gradually increased, and the demand for batteries in recent months has been larger, and the opportunity for mini cars to rely on lithium iron phosphate is great.
Third, the characteristics of electric vehicle battery demand in recent years
Demand for ternary lithium batteries for passenger cars has temporarily declined, reaching 56% of passenger car battery demand in the fourth quarter of 2021. Demand for lithium iron phosphate rebounded significantly in Q4 to 44%.
Lithium iron phosphate for bus products accounted for 99% in the fourth quarter of 2021, which is still relatively conservative.
The proportion of ternary lithium in special vehicles declined. Driven by cost reduction, lithium iron phosphate for special vehicles is relatively stable.
Fourth, the performance analysis of battery companies
1. The main battery manufacturers have performed well
Due to the rapid expansion of battery companies at present, many battery companies, different companies set up in many places, the number of battery companies has increased significantly. In order to facilitate analysis, we have summarized all local companies into an overall company.
Due to the rapid decline in the share of leading enterprises, there are many opportunities in the industry.
LG Chem and BYD are in the top 2-3, accounting for 26%, and BYD is still a battery company with super advantages. The installed capacity has grown rapidly, mainly due to BYD's large battery production capacity and strong technological innovation.
The share of battery companies in the 4-10 position has increased relatively, mainly due to the slow improvement of technology at present, and there are many incremental opportunities for second-tier enterprises under the tight production capacity.
At present, it may be mainly the batteries of AVIC lithium batteries and hive energy that have entered a stronger place, and the decline of other intermediate enterprises is not large at present.
2. Manufacturer performance of the main battery varieties
The technical line of the battery is very important, if the technical direction is correct, the momentum of its development is very smooth, and the policy will also benefit it. Japan's Panasonic, South Korea's LG Chemical, Samsung SDI and other technical routes using ternary lithium batteries, such as the new energy giant Tesla has adopted Panasonic's nickel-cobalt aluminum oxide lithium ternary lithium battery, which is the so-called NCA, and the 21700 cylindrical battery pack has a better effect.
The companies with battery lines of various models vary greatly. The lines of ternary and lithium iron phosphate have strong manufacturers. The proportion of BYD's ternary batteries has risen in three years, reaching a monthly peak of nearly 30% in 2019, which is also good. In 2020, BYD will exert lithium iron phosphate, and the recent blade battery has become BYD's highlight technology.
Lithium iron phosphate batteries are still the strongest in the Ningde era, reaching 58% in 2020 and falling to 47% this year. The main manufacturers of lithium iron phosphate have relatively obvious advantages, mainly the advantages of expansion speed, the recent performance of Guoxuan and other excellent, the main technology is relatively mature, and the product competition is relatively stable.
Fifth, battery supporting enterprises change
1. Tesla (TSLA. US) with LG and Ningde
Tesla and Panasonic should be said to be a super strong cooperation system, LG should be said to cooperate with the development of Tesla in China; and the Ningde era has played an important role in Tesla's low-end localization products, especially lithium iron phosphate has played an important role in cost reduction, so the Ningde era in Tesla's product contribution is constantly improving, the performance is very good.
2. The main car companies in Europe and the United States transferred from LG to Ningde
Because of BMW's support and technical guidance, the early stage laid the brilliant achievement of the Ningde era as early as possible, so European and American car companies also agree with the quality system and good service of the Ningde era.
3. Japanese and Korean car companies use Ningde and AVIC lithium batteries
Japanese car companies are basically a supporting feature of the Ningde era, but due to the strong sense of autonomy of GAC, Toyota, Honda and other Japanese car companies still have a relatively strong relationship with GAC, and GAC is an independent and self-reliant enterprise, so GAC Trumpchi cultivates aviation lithium battery and other battery enterprise products, making AVIC lithium battery a relatively excellent battery main enterprise.
4. Diversified battery support for independent car companies of new forces
New force car companies do not have such a big policy baggage, supporting is based on pragmatic survival considerations, especially like Xiaopeng (09868)) and other companies are more excellent, the choice of batteries is also more diversified, for other battery companies in the diversification of choice. Because the current volume of new power companies is relatively small, leading battery companies did not give these companies better treatment at the beginning. Therefore, in order to develop, many enterprises such as Xiaopeng are multi-faceted efforts, and they must choose a better supporting system. Therefore, it can be seen that the new forces enterprises have more choices of their own supporting systems, or diversified supporting facilities.
5. Traditional car companies use BYD, AVIC, Guoxuan and Hive
Independent new energy vehicles are developing rapidly, and the development of their supporting systems is also pragmatic and flexible. THE AVIC lithium battery cultivated by GAC Passenger Vehicle is a good representative of industrial support. And Anhui Chery Automobile's Guoxuan Hi-Tech is still very good.
The honeycomb energy self-matching rate of Great Wall Motors has reached about 40%, reflecting the forward-looking vision of independent batteries; and Geely's battery supporting system must also begin to be built independently, after all, the experience of BYD and Great Wall proves that car companies' self-made batteries are an inevitable choice.
This article is selected from the WeChat public account "Cui Dongshu", Zhitong Finance Editor: Xie Qinghai.