According to the current policy, the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized. However, at this year's two sessions, some deputies once again put forward the proposal of "postponing the cancellation of car purchase subsidies". For a time, whether it is necessary for new energy vehicle subsidies to continue has become a topic of concern in the automotive industry.
Wen 丨 wisdom driving network Jinshan
Whether it is the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers or the industry, one of the main evaluations of China's new energy automobile industry in 2021 is that China's electric vehicle market is changing from policy-driven to market-driven.
The authorities' clarification that "the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31" is becoming a footnote to this comment.
However, during this year's two sessions, more than one representative put forward the proposal of "postponing the cancellation of subsidies for new energy vehicles".
Among them, Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group, put forward three suggestions:
1. Postpone state subsidies for one to two years, simplify the procedures for receiving subsidies in the early stage, and alleviate the financial pressure of enterprises;
Second, it is recommended that the national level consider adjusting the strategic direction of the subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in the new era. On the one hand, with the purpose of boosting and encouraging the consumption of new energy vehicles, the subsidy policy will be inclined to the demand side (consumer); on the other hand, the subsidy policy will be inclined to the construction party for the purpose of accelerating the supporting construction of new energy vehicles;
Third, increase efforts to study and improve other incentive policies as soon as possible to ensure the effective and sustainable development of the market after the subsidies for new energy vehicles are completely stopped.
Ding Shiqi, deputy general manager of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group, also brought a similar proposal, and his proposal was: it is recommended to extend the subsidy for new energy vehicles, continue to exempt the purchase tax from the vehicle and ship tax until 2025, and support the high-quality development of the new energy automobile industry.
On December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022. The "Notice" pointed out that in 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021.
At the same time, the Notice also clearly points out that the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized.
This means that the official subsidy for the purchase of new energy vehicles has given the final time node - 2022 is the last year, and 2023 will be completely stopped.
However, after the four ministries and commissions, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, clarified that the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will be terminated at the end of this year, Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the press conference of the State New Office on February 28 this year that it is necessary to study and clarify support policies such as the continuation of preferential tax treatment for new energy vehicle vehicles, optimize the "double integral" management method, do a good job of effectively connecting with the subsidy decline, stabilize market expectations, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will organize the preparation of a green development roadmap for the automobile industry to provide guidance and help for industry enterprises.
Once again, the market is sniffing out the possibility that subsidies will continue in 2023.
For a while, the discussion about the continuation of the subsidy resumed.
Before discussing this topic, it is necessary to have a general understanding of the cost of subsidies for new energy vehicles by the mainland government.
According to previous data calculations, the amount of subsidies for new energy vehicles in mainland China in 2016 and before was 12.58 billion yuan; the amount of subsidies in 2017 was 22 billion yuan; the amount of subsidies in 2018 exceeded 13.7 billion yuan; the amount of subsidies in 2019 was nearly 13.7 billion yuan; the amount of subsidies in 2020 was about 11.25 billion yuan; and the amount of subsidies in 2021 exceeded 21.8 billion yuan.
In more than 6 years, the total amount of subsidies for new energy vehicles has exceeded 95 billion yuan.
At present, the mainland is already the world's largest market for new energy vehicles.
And this "first" is also spent nearly 100 billion subsidies and many policy inclinations in exchange.
According to the data, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in mainland China reached 3.545 million units and 3.521 million units respectively in 2021, an increase of 159% and 157% year-on-year, respectively; the annual market share of new energy vehicles reached 13.4%, an increase of 8% year-on-year.
This not only means that the mainland already has a considerable market sales, but also that the future development space is even greater.
It is precisely because the mainland's new energy vehicle market has great potential that the debate on whether to let the car purchase subsidy end completely next year is more intense.
This is not only related to the trend of the world's largest market, but also directly affects the judgment of global car companies on the future development.
The reason for the proposal of "delaying the cancellation of new energy vehicle purchase subsidies" is that the current problem of restricting the popularity of new energy vehicles still exists, and the market is still greatly affected by the subsidy policy, and has not yet developed to a stage that can completely rely on the market. If the financial subsidy is cancelled in 2023, the cost of car purchase will rise, which is likely to lead to a decline in consumers' desire to buy.
According to industry analysts, once the car purchase subsidy is completely terminated, the entry-level models in the new energy vehicle market will be most affected.
Because the object of the new energy passenger car purchase subsidy is less than 300,000 yuan (including 300,000 yuan) models. The entry-level new energy models are relatively low in price, the profits of enterprises are limited, and the sensitivity of target users to price fluctuations is also the highest.
According to the data of the Association, in 2021, the mainland A00-class pure electric car will account for more than 30% of the overall sales of new energy vehicles. It can be seen that the market ownership of entry-level electric vehicles is quite considerable, and it is difficult to predict what impact the termination of the car purchase subsidy will bring.
However, Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said: "It is expected that the subsidy policy will decline by 30% in 2022, whether it is the strength of the decline or the time of the explicit exit, it has grasped a good rhythm." The amount of subsidy policies currently implemented is not high, so the impact of a 30% decline is not large. At the same time, although the cost of the battery is high, it is still the market factor that ultimately determines the price. And with the overall expansion of the new energy vehicle market, the cost will be further amortized, and the subsidy policy will not bring significant changes to the new energy vehicle market in 2022. ”
Endorsing this view is Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association.
He said: "At present, the sales of new energy vehicles have basically entered the market-oriented track, and the impact of subsidies is very small. Even if there are no subsidies in the future, non-subsidized policies such as double credits, carbon emissions, and travel restrictions will still play a role. At the same time, with the rise in oil prices, the cost of use of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles increases, which will make the impact of subsidies decline will not be too large. ”
Zhi Driving Jun also has a firm supportive attitude towards the decline of subsidies and even the complete termination, for two reasons:
First, the development of the mainland's new energy vehicle market so far, there are too many "non-market factors" have an impact, whether it is the purchase restriction policy for fuel vehicles, or the purchase subsidy and purchase tax reduction policy for new energy vehicles, which directly affect the market trend.
However, the new energy market can not always rely on these "umbrellas", its long-term and healthy development must ultimately rely on the market itself, the choice is truly handed over to consumers, so that brands and products rely on real strength to compete.
Second, the existence of subsidies for new energy vehicles is not conducive to the survival of the fittest of car companies. From the budding of the new energy market to the present, enterprises have emerged in an endless stream, including many people who fish in muddy waters. The participation of these enterprises is a kind of harm to both market development and consumer interests.
Especially the entry-level electric vehicles mentioned above, some products with low cost performance and poor quality have survived because of the existence of car purchase subsidies. Once the subsidy is terminated, the reality of its low true value will be exposed.
Therefore, the subsidy decline or even termination will be conducive to new energy vehicle companies to take the rough and refined. Only by allowing inferior enterprises to stop the unnecessary consumption of various resources, withdraw from the stage as soon as possible, and give up space to enterprises with development prospects can we help the healthy growth of the new energy automobile industry.
However, smart drivers are very much in favor of increasing investment in the construction of new energy vehicle infrastructure.
For this point, Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group, and Ding Shiqi, deputy general manager of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group, also clearly mentioned in the proposal.
At present, the supporting facilities of new energy vehicles in the mainland are not perfect, and it is necessary to continuously improve the number and efficiency of charging facilities, and the problem of "charging difficulties" in old residential areas continues to be solved.
Instead of spending the money on subsidies for car purchases, it is better to use it on infrastructure construction.
With a more perfect ecology for the use of new energy vehicles, we can further enhance consumers' confidence in purchasing and using new energy vehicles, which is a measure to promote the benign development of the new energy vehicle market.
In the latest policy, it is also worth noting that in 2022, the framework and threshold requirements of the current purchase subsidy technical indicator system will remain unchanged, but the scale of subsidies is not mentioned, which means that the upper limit of the original expected scale of 2 million vehicles has been relaxed, and the subsidy throughout the year has been realized.
In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said: "The increase in the new energy vehicle market at the end of 2022 is very strong, which will inevitably promote the total sales of new energy vehicles in 2022. Previously, it was expected that the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 would be 4.8 million units, and should now be adjusted to 5.5 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles will reach about 25%; new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million units, with a penetration rate of about 22%. ”
According to media reports, Tian Yongqiu, a senior analyst in the automotive industry, also agreed with this view, saying: "Without the limit of the annual subsidy scale of 2 million vehicles, the subsidy policy in 2022 will play a 'fire fuel' effect." Coupled with the complete termination of subsidies at the end of 2022, it is expected to trigger a rush to buy. ”
The first quarter of 2022 has entered the end, and the new energy vehicle market is still running smoothly in the continuous decline.
Most car companies have a clear prediction of the market trend and have made some strategic adjustments, and the overall situation has not fluctuated significantly.
Chinese brands, in particular, are generally confident.
Weilai Automobile said that the average selling price of its products is more than 400,000 yuan, and the decline policy will not have an impact on the selling price; Xiaopeng, Weima and other head companies also said that they have long expected changes brought about by the subsidy policy decline, and are confident about the future market trend, and said that this is a good policy for enterprises.
New energy vehicle subsidies with the budding and development of the new energy vehicle market, all the way to today, naturally has its indispensable value, but after the completion of the mission, it should also be withdrawn from the historical stage in time.
In the past two years, the termination of the subsidy for new energy vehicle purchases has been repeatedly postponed, which has shown to a certain extent that China's new energy industry has appeared "inert", car companies hope to reduce the burden, and consumers hope to reduce expenses. However, if the new energy market wants to develop benignly, and new energy vehicle companies want to grow healthily, they must get rid of this "inertia" and fully return to market competition.
It's like tigers in a zoo, and their best place to go is to get out of captivity and return to nature.
The bottom line on December 31, 2022 is already very clear, and it is time to say goodbye to subsidies.
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