(Report Producer/Author: Guosen Securities, Wang Weiqi)
First, the introduction of carbon nanotubes: a conductive agent with outstanding performance
Structure and characteristics of carbon nanotubes
Carbon nanotubes, also known as bucky tubes, abbreviated as CNT, are one-dimensional quantum materials that are curled by a single or multilayer graphene layer around a central axis at a certain spiral angle. It was first discovered in 1991 by Sumio Iijima. Carbon nanotube length-to-diameter ratio, carbon purity as the two core indicators affecting conductivity, directly determine the product performance of carbon nanotubes, the thinner the diameter of carbon nanotubes, the longer the length, the better the conductivity.
CNT has outstanding multi-faceted properties: 1) mechanical properties: with extremely high elasticity and toughness, Young's modulus is nearly 6 times that of steel, tensile strength is 100 times that of steel, and it is also the material with the highest specific strength in nature. 2) Electrical properties: The conductivity is significantly better than that of graphene, carbon black and other materials, and the thinner the pipe diameter and the longer the length, the better the conductivity. 3) Thermal conductivity: extremely high thermal conductivity, thermal conductivity at room temperature is 2 times that of diamond. The thermal performance of the shaft guide is excellent, the radius conductive heat is poor, and the thermal conductive material of anisotropy can be synthesized. 4) Chemical stability: with acid resistance, alkali resistance, adding carbon nanotubes in polymer composite materials can improve the acid resistance and oxidation resistance of the material itself. 5) Excellent lithium embedding performance: the hollow tube cavity of carbon nanotubes, the gap between tubes and tubes, the gaps between the middle layers of tube walls and various defects in the tube structure provide rich storage space and transportation channels for lithium ions.
Carbon nanotube classification: single-walled carbon nanotubes have better performance
In commercial use, carbon nanotubes can be divided into single-walled carbon nanotubes and multi-walled carbon nanotubes according to the difference in graphene layer number. The advantages of single-walled carbon nanotubes are:
Simple structure, stable chemical properties: during the formation of multi-walled carbon nanotubes, the layers between layers are easy to become trap centers and capture various defects, while single-walled carbon nanotubes have simple structure, good uniform consistency, few defects, and stable chemical properties.
Small amount of addition, excellent conductivity: Due to the relatively high length-diameter of single-walled carbon nanotubes, they can form a three-dimensional conductive network at a very low amount of addition. At the same time, single-walled carbon nanotubes have a layer of carbon atoms, and according to the spiral characteristics of space can exhibit metallic or semiconductor properties. In addition, its strong carbon-carbon bond allows it to have a higher ampacity and a current density that is more than 1,000 times higher than that of metals such as copper.
Good elasticity and high mechanical properties: Single-walled carbon nanotubes have stronger flexibility, can be better bent, twisted or kinked, and their elastic modulus and tensile strength are significantly better than multi-walled carbon nanotubes.
Good thermal conductivity: The unit mass thermal conductivity of single-walled carbon nanotubes is higher than that of multi-walled carbon nanotubes, and both can withstand high temperatures above 750 °C.
Diverse colors of finished products: Multi-walled carbon nanotubes improve mechanical properties and electrical conductivity by increasing the amount of addition, which affects the surface quality and color of the product, such as it can only produce black materials. Since the amount of single-walled carbon nanotubes is generally 0.01-0.1%, it is possible to produce any color and transparent conductive material.
Excellent safety performance: Under the multi-week cycle of 45 °C high temperature, the internal resistance growth of the soft pack battery with single-wall CNT is significantly lower than that of the battery with other conductive agents, indicating that the less the risk of battery fire.
Improved pole plate adhesion: A network of single-walled carbon nanotubes connects the cathode material particles together, thereby increasing the strength of the connection between the particles. This property is particularly important for silicon-based anodes that are easy to powder and fall off.
The technical barriers of carbon nanotubes are reflected in three aspects: catalysts, dispersion systems and equipment
Equipment: The main equipment used in the production of carbon nanotubes is ultra-high temperature furnace, carbonization reactor, graphitization furnace, sand mill and so on. Carbon nanotubes have a small bulk density and a large specific surface area, which is easy to wind in production and has high difficulty in continuous production. Fluidized bed reactors, purification and dispersion equipment are often retrofitted, or even designed in-house, to improve production efficiency and continuity. For example, as of the end of January 2022, Tiannai Technology has a total of 59 patents related to carbon nanotubes, of which 33 patents related to equipment improvement, accounting for 56%.
The core barriers in the production process of carbon nanotubes are embodied in:
Dispersion system: Powder dispersion is the core step in slurry preparation. Since the direct practical application of CNT powder is not good, battery factories are currently more inclined to purchase CNT paste. Due to the strong van der Waals force and high length-to-diameter ratio between carbon nanotubes, it is easy to form large tube bundles, and the existence of nano-size effects makes the agglomeration effect more significant. Common dispersion methods include grinding, high-energy ball milling, adding surfactants, etc. In actual production, surfactants such as PVP are often used as dispersants, NMP as dispersion media, and sand mills are used for dispersion. The effects of different components and dispersants with different content are significantly different.
Catalyst: The preparation method and process of the catalyst will affect its particle size, activity, purity and other properties, which in turn will have a significant impact on the diameter, length, purity and uniformity of carbon nanotubes. Each company has carried out a patent layout for the composition and production process of the catalyst, and flexibly adjusted it through its own actual production process. The quality of catalyst preparation will also be directly reflected in the performance of carbon nanotube products. (Source: Future Think Tank)
Second, the rapid penetration of power batteries, the tens of billions of market sails away
Lithium batteries in carbon nanotube applications: improve positive and negative conductivity
Conductive agent is the key auxiliary material of lithium battery, the main role is to improve the conductivity of the positive and negative electrodes. The problem of poor conductivity of the positive electrode active material of lithium batteries is common, which makes the internal resistance of the electrode higher and the discharge depth insufficient, which in turn leads to low utilization rate of the living material and a large residual capacity of the electrode. The conductive agent plays a role in it: 1) increase the transmission rate of electrons in the electrode and improve the conductivity; 2) improve the infiltration of the electrode plate on the electrolyte, improve the lithium ion migration rate, improve the electrode charge and discharge efficiency and service life; 3) when the volume of the cathode material changes during the charging and discharging process, build a good conductive network and improve the conductivity. At present, the mainstream conductive agents are carbon black, carbon nanotubes, conductive graphite, VGCF (vapor phase growth carbon fiber) and graphene.
Carbon nanotube products iterate quickly, and the performance and profitability of different generations vary significantly
The difference in the preparation method between the intergenerational carbon nanotubes is mainly reflected in the catalyst formula and the macro preparation method, and the high-generation products have a thinner diameter and longer length, and the conductivity and mechanical properties are more superior. According to the announcement of Tiannai Technology, its carbon nanotube products are roughly divided into four generations, and each generation of products corresponds to different catalyst formulations and different subdivisions of application fields. The time interval between the launch of each generation of products is 2-3 years, and the price difference is significant and the cost difference is very small. This fast-iterative product is also an important foundation for consolidating the high profitability of carbon nanotubes.
The permeability of carbon nanotubes in conductive agents has increased steadily
Compared with traditional conductive agents, carbon nanotubes and graphene conductive agents have the characteristics of good conductivity and low dosage. Carbon black, conductive graphite and VGCF as traditional conductive agents, which form a point, surface or line contact conductive network between the active substances; carbon nanotubes and graphene belong to the new conductive electrode materials, which form a wire contact and surface contact conductive network, respectively. In terms of dosage, the amount of conductive agent added depends on the electrochemical system of different battery manufacturers, generally 1%-3% of the weight of the positive or negative electrode, and the powder use of carbon nanotube conductive agent is only 1/6-1/2 of the traditional conductive agent. According to GGII forecast, carbon black is still the most mainstream conductive agent in the market in 2021, and its shipment proportion is expected to reach 69.7%; the penetration rate of carbon nanotubes continues to rise, and it is expected to reach 21.2%.
Multivariate catalytic penetration of carbon nanotubes:
The economy of carbon nanotube products is gradually reflected. Due to the rise in raw material and energy prices, the price of carbon black has increased from 45,000 yuan / ton to nearly 100,000 yuan / ton at the end of 2021. Carbon nanotubes are accompanied by large-scale rapid cost reduction, and the economy has been initially reflected. Suppose that the amount of SP added in the cathode material is 3%, while the amount of carbon nanotubes added is 0.5%-1.5%. According to the announcement of Tiannai Technology, the average price of carbon nanotube powder in the first three quarters of 2021 has dropped to 222,000 yuan / ton, a decrease of 38.6% over 2020. We neutrally assume that the average price of SP in 2022 is 70,000 yuan / ton, the average price of carbon nanotubes is 211,000 yuan / ton, and the estimated cost per ton corresponding to adding 3% SP is 0.21 million yuan, and the cost per ton corresponding to adding 0.5% / 1.0% / 1.5% carbon nanotubes is 0.11 / 0.21 / 0.32 million yuan
Compared with the ternary cathode, the advantages of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials are: 1) the components are free of precious metals and the cost is low; 2) the material lattice is stable, the reversibility is good, and the cycle life is long; 3) the chemical bond is stable and the safety performance is high; its main shortcomings are: 1) low energy density; 2) poor conductivity.
The cost advantage superposition of new technologies has driven the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate higher. In recent years, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has slipped rapidly, and the downstream battery factory has under huge pressure to reduce costs, especially since 2021, the prices of nickel and cobalt metals have continued to rise, making the price of ternary cells increase rapidly, which in turn makes the low-cost advantage of lithium iron phosphate more prominent. Blade batteries, CTP (Cell to Pack) packaging technology, etc. make the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries increased. The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries with both safety and cost performance continues to rise; in 2021, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in China will increase from 24.4GWh to 79.8GWh, accounting for 51.7%, an increase of 13.3pct year-on-year.
Third, the industry is highly concentrated and fast iteration, and the leading enterprises have significant advantages
Characteristics of the carbon nanotube industry: technology-intensive niche market
There is still room for improvement in the localization rate: in 2020, domestic carbon nanotube shipments account for 54% of the world, lower than the negative electrode, electrolyte and other links, there is still a lot of room for improvement.
High industry concentration: In the carbon nanotube industry from 2018 to 2020, CR3/CR5 increased from 68.0%/87.7% to 75.7%/89.1%, respectively, and the industry continued to concentrate. In terms of horizontal comparison, the concentration of carbon nanotube industry is significantly higher than that of the four major lithium battery main material links.
The investment in the single GWh production capacity of carbon nanotubes is 0.30 billion yuan, which is basically the same as the negative electrode, which is significantly lower than that of the diaphragm and cathode industries; the investment payback period of the head carbon nanotube enterprise is about 6 years. In 2020, the gross profit margin of Tiannai Technology was 39%, which was lower than that of Enjie shares in the diaphragm link, but significantly higher than other main material links. On the one hand, the high gross profit margin is due to its low cost in the battery (less than 4%), and the downstream price sensitivity is low; on the other hand, it is the rapid iteration of the product in 2-3 years to maintain a better competitive advantage
Tiannai Technology leads the track, and OCSiAl single-wall carbon tube leads the world
Tiannai Technology has a solid position in the carbon nanotube industry: according to GGII data, in 2020, the domestic carbon nanotube conductive paste industry has ranked first in the shipment volume of Tiannai Technology for many years, with a market share of 32.3%, mainly for the supply of high-end lithium battery market; Jiyue Nano market share of 23.8% ranked second; Cabot ranked third. Overseas enterprises in the acquisition of Sanshun Nano into this field, LG Chem rely on its own chemical advantages to develop their own.
Carbon nanotube industry main barriers: 1) technical difficulty, the traditional conductive agent is mainly prepared by the reactor to pyrolysis of the fuel, carbon nanotubes are prepared by nanoscale chemical vapor deposition method, there are significant differences in the preparation process and equipment, it is difficult to cut directly; 2) the conductive agent certification cycle is long, and the cost is relatively low, so the customer viscosity is larger.
Single-walled carbon nanotubes are a new opportunity, and OCSiAl is ahead of its layout. OCSiAl is a Russian company that developed the first technology for industrial synthesis of single-walled carbon nanotubes in 2013 and officially released its single-walled carbon nanotube product TUBAL in 2014. At present, OCSiAl has an annual production capacity of 900,000 tons, accounting for more than 95% of the global single-walled carbon nanotube market. TUBALL has been applied in lithium-ion batteries, tires, conductive plastics and other fields, and the performance is ahead of its competitors. Domestic enterprises, Tiannai Technology has successfully developed single-wall carbon nanotube finished products, and in 2021 to increase the production capacity of new single-wall carbon nanotubes, is expected to be put into production in 2023-2024; Zhongke Times Nano (Chengdu Institute of Organic Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences) has an annual production capacity of 500kg; Dow Technology (Qingdao Haoxin) has also completed the development of single-walled carbon nanotubes.
Single-wall carbon nanotubes are relatively expensive at this stage, and are expected to reduce costs rapidly after scale. We assume that the single-wall carbon tube is quoted at 9 million yuan / ton. We assume that the amount of single-wall carbon tubes added is 0.1% and the amount of multi-walled carbon tubes is 1.5% under the same circumstances. Then we estimate that the cost of a single-wall carbon tube and a multi-wall carbon tube per ton is 0.90/0.32 million yuan respectively. In the future, with the batch release of enterprise production capacity in 2023-2024 and the rapid application of silicon-based anode, single-wall carbon tubes are expected to reduce costs rapidly through large-scale.
Fourth, the analysis of key companies
Tiannai Technology
Technical advantages: The company independently prepares catalysts, self-developed key equipment, decentralized system to set patent protection, and master the core preparation barriers. At the same time, in view of new industrial trends such as silicon-based anode and high nickel cathode, the company has carried out patent layout and technology accumulation, and continues to maintain its leading advantages. The company has now mass-produced first-, second- and third-generation products, and the new generation of products applied to the silicon-based anode is expected to be mass-produced in 2023-2024, and the product performance and iteration speed are ahead of the peers. Historically, the company's product development and marketing of major battery technologies have led the industry's major competitors.
Customer advantages: The company cooperates closely with NINGDE Times, BYD, ATL and other industry leaders, and actively lays out customers such as EWELL Lithium Energy, Sunwoda, and Zhongxin Airlines, with both depth and breadth of customers. Peer companies are mostly concentrated in cooperation with enterprises such as Ati and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and other battery factories have less penetration. 1) In recent years, the company has actively deepened cooperation with manufacturers such as CATL, and the proportion of sales in the first three quarters of 2021 has increased to 18.2%, an increase of 12.2pct over 2018; in the first three quarters of 2021, Xin Hang ranked among the top five customers for the first time. 2) With the advantages of single-walled carbon nanotube products, the company is expected to break through panasonic and Samsung's new battery system, and follow the rapid growth of 4680 cells and silicon-based anodes.
Scale advantage: The company expects the production capacity of carbon nanotube conductive paste to be 50,000 tons by the end of 2021, and the production capacity is far more than that of its peers. Under the scale effect and high-speed iteration of products, the company's profitability continues to be high. In the first half of 2021, the net profit margin of Tiannai Technology reached 23.05%, higher than Qingdao Haoxin's 17.78%.
Raising investment and expanding production to alleviate production capacity bottlenecks, integrated superimposed products to optimize and thicken profits
Quantity logic:
Capacity expansion: The electrification of downstream vehicles is accelerating, the company's products are in short supply, and the capacity utilization rate continues to be high, and it is imperative to expand production on a large scale. The company's existing carbon nanotube conductive paste production capacity reached 50,000 tons, in 2021 the company proposed a new expansion plan, intends to expand 50,000 tons of conductive paste project, then the company's production capacity will exceed 100,000 tons, compared with the existing production capacity to achieve double.
Conductive masterbatches are expected to contribute to new additions: the company's IPO investment in conductive masterbatches has a production capacity of 2,000 tons, and convertible bonds will raise funds to expand production by another 5,000 tons in 2021. Conductive masterbatches are expected to become a new growth point for performance. (Source: Future Think Tank)
The company's integrated layout consolidates profit advantages:
1) Powder self-production: The company's carbon nanotube powder is self-produced, compared with Qingdao Haoxin and other advantages in raw material costs, the company's IPO investment of 6,000 tons of powder is expected to be released from 2022 to 2023;
2) Layout purification link: the company's early site resources limited purification mostly use outsourced processing, and high-generation carbon nanotube product purification requirements are high, the company in 2021 to raise investment in the new 3,000 tons of carbon tube purification capacity, improve product quality, ensure competitiveness;
3) Deepen NMP production and recycling: The main raw materials of carbon nanotube paste are NMP, propylene, dispersants, etc., of which NMP cost accounts for more than 80%. In 2018, the company invested in the establishment of a holding subsidiary, Xinna Environmental Protection, to produce and recycle NMP, and related projects have begun to be put into production in 2020, and it is expected to hedge the pressure on costs of NMP price fluctuations in the future with the ramping of production capacity.
Scale promotes cost decline: Under the rapid expansion of the company's production capacity and the continuous improvement of capacity utilization, the depreciation and amortization of unit products have decreased, the proportion of manufacturing expenses and labor costs has continued to decline, and costs have been optimized.
Product structure optimization and thickening profits: The company launches a generation of new products every 2-3 years, with high prices and strong profitability. In recent years, the company's second-generation, third-generation and above high-gross profit margin products have actively introduced downstream customers and developed new single-wall carbon nanotube products, and the product structure optimization enhances profitability.
Excerpts from the report:
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any of our investment advice.) For usage information, see the original report. ）
Featured report source: [Future Think Tank].