The Russian-Belarusian negotiations have achieved important results, or they may be able to deal with sanctions for a long time, and Ukraine is in a bad situation!
On March 15, the President of Belarus issued a statement: Negotiations between Belarus and Russia have yielded important results. Russia will export fossil energy to Belarus at domestic prices, while the two countries will abandon settlement in dollars, which is equivalent to giving Belarus access to energy from Russia at a lower price. At the same time, the border epidemic prevention measures between Russia and Belarus are also gradually being liberalized, so it can be reasonably judged that the scale of bilateral trade between Russia and Belarus will be further expanded.
According to statistics, as of March 15, the Russian army has destroyed 3736 military facilities, 1234 tanks and armored vehicles, 452 artillery and other types of technical equipment, from the data point of view, the results of the Russian army are expanding every day, although it is slower than the beginning of the military operation, but in general, the Russian army still maintains an absolute advantage.
At present, the Russian army has basically controlled the eastern and southern parts of Uzbekistan and continues to penetrate deep into Ukraine. Kiev, Kharkiv and other major cities in Ukraine, the two sides are still fighting fiercely, but the situation of the Ukrainian army is not optimistic.
According to the latest news, after a brief adjustment, the Russian army has recently begun to launch an attack on a military base in western Ukraine, which is reported to be only 25 kilometers away from the Polish border. On the whole, it is expected that another week of fighting will be carried out, and the Russian army will complete the strategic encirclement of the entire territory of Ukraine. Interestingly, in the face of such a dangerous situation, the United States and NATO still have no tendency to directly intervene in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, once neighbors who were as close as brothers, now face different fates.
Obviously, the relationship between Russia and Ukraine can be said to have fallen to the lowest point since the collapse of the Soviet Union, while Belarus has maintained relatively friendly relations with Russia in recent years, which has led to the current situation of Ukraine and Belarus, and the reason for this result is both geopolitical and complex historical reasons.
First of all, from the perspective of the two countries' political system
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine and Belarus were separated from the original system, but they implemented different political systems. In 1996, the political system of the president-parliament system was established for the first time through the Constitution of Uzbekistan, but in the following 6 years, the political system of Uzbekistan has changed repeatedly between the president-parliament and the parliament-presidential system.
The fundamental reason for this situation lies in the mutual pull between pro-American and pro-Russian figures in The ukrainian political circles, and it is precisely because of the continuous internal struggle in Ukraine that external forces have been given the opportunity to take advantage of the situation, so that the political situation in Ukraine has been in a turbulent situation for a long time, and this can also explain why the political orientation of Ukraine in the past always gave people a sense of uncertainty.
However, the White Russian side does not have such a complex political network as Ukraine, similar to Russia, White Russia implements a presidential system and separation of powers, it is worth mentioning that Belarus has no clear provisions on the term of office of the president, which has created favorable conditions for the stability of the political situation in Belarus. In addition, there is no fixed ruling party in Belarus, and parliamentary seats are allocated strictly according to the principle of regions. Under the constraints of the system, compared with Ukraine, the political environment of Belarus is particularly good.
The second is the difference in the foreign policies of the two countries
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, although White Russia has substantially completed its independence, its relations with Russia have not deteriorated due to "separation", and the ties between the two countries have become closer. In just a few years after independence, Belarus joined the Cissembled, and since then it has established a common security and defense cooperation mechanism with Russia, and the so-called common security and defense cooperation mechanism is actually to allow Russia to station troops in Belarus or enjoy the right to use military facilities, in exchange, Russia undertakes most of the defense tasks of Belarus. In addition, in the economic and trade fields, the two countries have also maintained close cooperation for a long time.
On the other hand, the Ukrainian authorities in the early days of independence also showed a considerable degree of enthusiasm for consolidating Russian-Ukrainian relations, but since the outbreak of the color revolution in Uzbekistan in 2004, the pro-Russian forces of the Ukrainian authorities have been uprooted, and the diplomatic orientation of Uzbekistan has undergone a 180-degree reversal.
Politically, Ukraine vigorously suppressed pro-Russian elements. Diplomatically, Ukraine has been seeking to join the European Union as a way to offset the negative impact of the severance of economic and trade ties with Russia. The change in diplomatic tactics is the direct cause of the turmoil in Uzbekistan in the future, and it can even be said to be the fundamental cause.
Later, due to a series of pro-West and anti-Russian actions of Ukraine, russia was strongly dissatisfied, which made Russia also change its diplomatic strategy towards Ukraine.
In 2014, under the operation of Russia, Crimea, which originally belonged to Ukraine, was included in Russia's territory. Immediately afterward, the Udongton and Lu states, dissatisfied with the pro-Western position of the Ukrainian authorities, declared their independence one after another. And with the support of Russia, the tug-of-war with the Ukrainian authorities for 7 years has further deepened the contradictions between Russia and Ukraine, which has also allowed NATO, which is constantly expanding eastward, to see the hope of Latvia's joining.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO did not dissolve with it, but achieved the purpose of eastward expansion by continuously accepting the former Warsaw Pact member states, but it should be noted that NATO's eastward expansion has always been aimed at absorbing the former Warsaw Pact member states, and there has never been a precedent for accepting the former Soviet Union member states. From a military point of view, once Ukraine joins NATO, russia's thousands of kilometers of border in Europe will be completely exposed to NATO's vision, posing a substantial military threat to Russia.
Because Russia and Ukraine have deep ties on the Crimean issue, Ukraine's intention to join NATO is very strong, which is undoubtedly challenging Russia's bottom line. As a result, just when people from all walks of life were still discussing whether Russia would really take military action against Ukraine, the Russian army had actually entered the territory of Ukraine. This is also the reason why, as a Slavic nation, Ukraine and Belarus are currently facing very different situations.
According to the latest news, Russia and Ukraine will resume negotiations in the next few days. However, the battlefield cannot be won, and the outcome of how to talk at the negotiating table will not change fundamentally, and it is obvious that if Ukraine continues to brainlessly pursue a pro-Western diplomatic strategy, Russia's ultimate military objectives may also change.