With a 3-1 home win over Turkey, Portugal successfully advanced to the final in Group C of the World Cup play-offs, and as long as they can defeat North Macedonia, Portugal and Ronaldo will be close to the Qatar World Cup.
Judging from the actual course of the game, Portugal won not have been as easy as the score. Manager Santos's formation is very radical, that is, it emphasizes the offensive organization. With physique and confrontation at a disadvantage, Portugal got two key points right: first, hitting the back and space of the opposing defense; second, passively stabilizing the situation and killing the suspense through effective adjustments.
Of course, Portugal still showed hidden worries in the promotion process.
[Portugal did 2 things right: after the fight, the on-the-spot response was relatively in place]
Turkey's confrontational advantage is very clear, especially in their midfield. De Miral and Seingui have excellent physique and frontal defensive ability, and even Kabak can limit opponents through confrontational output. Kirkku and Krut, who are the leaders of this game, also have strong confrontational capabilities.
As a result, they were able to limit Portugal's offensive advance by increasing their high-level pressing. Even the B-seat, who has excellent ball-handling ability, cannot easily help Moutinho and the defense to complete an effective and sustained attacking combination.
So, what did Portugal rely on to score goals? Hit the "hard bones" behind Turkey's back.
The Turkish centre-back has a good frontal defensive ability, so he uses an effective vertical direct plug to attack the opponent. Then, in the offensive organization, give full play to the advantages of the small fast spirit frontcourt, interspersed with cooperation, and finally complete the attack.
The first goal is very obvious, C Ronaldo inserted behind De Mirall, directly divided the ball before the insertion of the small fast teammates, through the horizontal operation to finally achieve long-range shooting, supplementary shooting operations. During this period, the weakness of the Turkish defensive end was completely punctured; the second goal, which caught the problem of making up for the defensive line after the opponent had consumed too much in the rush, made an empty strike, and Jota completed the score in his "exclusive header area" at the back point.
In passivity, Santos's adjustment is still a little slow, but it still grasps the core of the problem. Lower B fee on Willian Carvalho, adding a defensive element in midfield. After Ilmaz conceded a penalty, he replaced Nunes to continue to strengthen the midfield, and then added Leon to the front court as a strong point of confrontation and counterattack.
Leo's key confrontation gave Portugal the opportunity to counterattack, and the reinforced front court physique and confrontation directly showed the effect.
[Stacking offensive elements abandons hardness and confrontation, Portugal's hidden worries are obvious]
Portugal suffered consecutive blows before the match, and pepe contracted the new crown in the absence of Diaz. All of a sudden, the team "didn't" center-backs.
Manager Santos' deployment for this game is very "radical": with Danilo Pereira pulling back as a cameo centre-back, he frantically piles up offensive elements in midfield. After dragging behind veteran Moutinho, he was preceded by B Fee, B Seat, Ottavio, C Ronaldo, Jota and others.
The purpose is very clear, to win!
But the problems with such deployments are also very obvious. First, the defensive elements of the midfield are insufficient, and second, the front field lacks confrontational ability.
The lack of defensive elements is very easy to understand, and there will be flaws in the defensive end of moutinho's side of the retreat, whether it is B Fee, B Seat, Jota or Otavio. There is a lack of confrontation in the front, that is, a difference in physique. A group of small quick spirits plus C Ronaldo, a bit "copy" the meaning of Manchester City, but what is missing is confrontation, especially the high-altitude ball confrontation.
Especially after Turkey "changed the taste" to carry out high-level pressing, forcing Portugal to continue to pass long passes in the backcourt, Portugal's shortcomings in the front court's top-to-ceiling confrontation were exposed: in the first 20 minutes, Portugal only had 3 high-altitude ball confrontations in the front court (1 successful), and in the following 60 minutes, the 27 high-altitude ball confrontations in the Portuguese frontcourt were only successful 4 times.
Similarly, the problem of the Turkish defensive line being blocked directly behind the back also appeared on the Portuguese side. The temporary centre-back combination of Fonte and Danilo Pereira has obvious shortcomings in turning and vertical defense.
【Conclusion】
Due to Italy's upset exit, Portugal's opponent in the play-off Group C final will be the dark horse North Macedonia. From the perspective of theoretical strength, Portugal undoubtedly has a clear advantage. Given the tenacious defence shown by North Macedonia against Italy, Portugal still needs to focus on the offensive end if they want to qualify.
But Italy's exit also proves that this North Macedonian team has the ability to fight back. Portugal, which is seriously short of troops in the backcourt, how to balance attack and defense will be a subject that makes manager Santos scratch his head. Of course, as long as Pepe returns, the problem will be avoided to the greatest extent possible.