What kind of future will Shabaz Sharif bring to Pakistan as Prime Minister?

21st Century Business Herald reporter Hu Huiyin reported that the dust has settled on Pakistan's prime minister.

On April 11, Shabaz Sharif was sworn in as Pakistan's new prime minister. Earlier in the day, the Prime Minister election was held in Pakistan's National Assembly (the lower house of parliament) and the chairman of the Muslim League (Sharif) Shabaz Sharif was elected as the new Prime Minister with the support of 174 parliamentarians. It is worth mentioning that Shabaz Sharif is the younger brother of former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

In his speech to the National Assembly, Shabaz Sharif made a special mention of China-Pakistan relations. He said that with the support of the Chinese and Pakistani governments, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will continue to move forward, and the project will be advanced at a faster pace.

Regarding the election of Shabaz Sharif as Prime Minister of Pakistan, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Zhao Lijian said on April 12 that China congratulates Shabaz Sharif on his election as Prime Minister of Pakistan. Zhao Lijian further said that China and Pakistan are all-weather strategic partners, and the relations between the two countries are rock solid and unbreakable. China looks forward to working with Pakistan to continue traditional friendship, deepen all-round cooperation, jointly build the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor with high quality, and build a closer China-Pakistan community of common destiny in the new era.

Successfully elected as the new prime minister, where will Shabaz Sharif lead Pakistan?

Who is the new Prime Minister?

A day after the adoption of a no-confidence motion against the 22nd Prime Minister Imran Khan, Shabaz Sharif was successfully elected pakistan's 23rd Prime Minister.

Shabaz Sharif has two identities, being the younger brother of former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the chairman of the Muslim League (Sharif). The victory of Shabaz Sharif this time has a special significance for Pakistani politics.

Liu Zongyi, secretary general of the China and South Asia Research Center of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, said in an interview with 21st Century Business Herald that in the past, the Pakistani government was mainly run by two major political families, the Sharif family and the Bhutto family, and the Justice Movement Party (PTI) led by former Prime Minister Imran Khan represented an emerging political force.

"Since the rise of Imran Khan, Pakistan's political landscape dominated by two major political families has been disrupted. Now the two families have reunited for common interests and hope to return to the original political structure. Liu Zongyi said.

In addition to his background in politics, Shabaz Sharif is an experienced politician. Since entering politics in the 1980s, he has served three times as Chief Minister of Pakistan's eastern Punjab province. In March 2018, Shabaz Sharif was elected president of the Muslim League (Sharif). In the same year, his party was defeated by Imran Khan's JeM party in the National Assembly elections, becoming the second largest party in the National Assembly.

In this regard, Wang Shida, deputy director of the South Asia Institute of the China Academy of Contemporary International Relations, told the 21st Century Business Herald that Shabaz Sharif's past political achievements are still very eye-catching. "Punjab, located in eastern Pakistan, has a well-developed industry and agriculture, and its total economy accounts for half of Pakistan's GDP. During his tenure as minister in Punjab, Shabbaz gained a good reputation, which proved that he was not only a successful businessman, but also had enough ability to apply his business governance capabilities to government governance to promote local economic development. Wang Shida said.

During his three tenures as Punjab's chief minister, Shabaz Sharif implemented many ambitious infrastructure projects, including leading the province to extensive cooperation with Chinese companies in areas such as energy, transport infrastructure and industrial cooperation. It is worth mentioning that major energy projects harvested in the early days of CPEC, such as the Sahiwal coal-fired power plant and the transport infrastructure Lahore Rail Orange Line project, are located in Punjab Province.

It is reported that in May 2021, when the Chinese ambassador to Pakistan Nong Rong met with Shabaz, he praised the Muslim League (Sharif faction) and the Sharif family for pursuing a long-term friendly policy toward China and firmly supporting the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. China and Pakistan have maintained close ties for many years, and after winning the election, Shabaz Sharif also mentioned the need to continue to promote the development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Therefore, many experts interviewed generally told reporters that it is expected that Shabaz Sharif will continue to pursue a friendly policy toward China after he is elected prime minister.

On the diplomatic side, Liu Zongyi told reporters that after Shabaz Sharif came to power, pakistan is expected to ease relations with the United States, and at the same time, he will try to ease relations with India.

The road to governance is challenging and optimistic

Although Shabaz Sharif was successfully elected, the haze hanging over Pakistan has not yet dissipated.

On the evening of April 10, local time, rallies were held in many cities in Pakistan, and tens of thousands of people poured into the streets to protest the removal of Imran Khan. Such scenes may not be uncommon in Pakistan. No prime minister in Pakistan has been able to complete a full five-year term since 1947.

Despite this, Liu Xiaoxue, an associate researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the 21st Century Business Herald that it is not expected that there will be too much political turmoil in Pakistan, in contrast, it is more urgent to consider how to effectively govern the economy.

High inflation will be a hurdle that Shabaz Sharif cannot bypass. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the country's consumer price index (CPI) had risen to 13% as of January 2022, a two-year high. This figure is 8% in 2021.

Wang Shida said that in recent times, the Pakistani rupee has depreciated sharply, coupled with geopolitical conflicts that have led to a continuous rise in commodity prices, while Pakistan is heavily dependent on international market imports in terms of food and energy, so that the country's import inflation remains high.

Soaring inflation and currency depreciation have led to a sharp decline in foreign exchange reserves. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves fell to $14.9 billion as of February 2022, from $18.9 billion in July 2021, a total that is only enough to cover about two months of imports. This series of economic chain reactions has become a weight that Pakistan cannot bear.

"In fact, Pakistan's economy is very fragile and has not been able to form a certain fiscal buffer, so it is difficult for it to withstand the impact of the epidemic." Liu Xiaoxue told reporters that Pakistan's domestic industry is relatively backward, its exports are concentrated in the textile industry, single products, and lack of resources mainly rely on imports, so the country's foreign debt is high, and it has to rely on international rescue.

In February, Pakistan borrowed $1.05 billion from the IMF. It is reported that this is the 23rd time that Pakistan has received rescue from the IMF. If it wants to get the IMF's rescue, Pakistan must first comply with policies such as subsidy cuts and welfare.

However, Shabaz Sharif seems to be going the other way around. On the day of his inauguration, he announced several measures to improve people's livelihoods, including raising the government's minimum wage to 25,000 rupees (about 860 yuan) from April 1, raising pensions for civilian and military retirees by 10 percent, and addressing high electricity prices and increasing economic development in economically underdeveloped provinces. In this regard, Liu Xiaoxue told reporters that these measures are contrary to the negotiations of the IMF, and the follow-up depends on how much financial space Shabaz Sharif has and specific practices, but for now, these measures may be difficult to achieve.

Liu Zongyi also holds a similar view. "In the short term, the move may alleviate the problem of people's shortage of funds, but in the long run, it may push up inflation." Promoting the development of regional infrastructure and domestic industries is a long-term process. He told reporters that to solve the current problem of high inflation and high debt, it is also necessary to rely on external forces, such as seeking support from the IMF and lending to other countries.

How to solve the economic problems remains a difficult problem for pakistan's new government. In this regard, Liu Zongyi believes that there is still an optimistic side, "compared with Imran Khan, Shabaz Sharif and his team will be more experienced in governing the economy." ”

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