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Today is Monday, April 18th! Yesterday, the arrival of goods in Shandong continued to decrease, the price increase area expanded, the increase was between 10-20 yuan / ton, and the bearish sentiment of the main body of grain holdings changed, resulting in a significant reduction in the supply in the market. The supply and demand environment in the market has changed, and the rapid rise in wheat prices has also become one of the main factors driving the expansion of corn prices, and now the official good news is that corn prices have been "escorted" by policies, and the price has quickly rushed to 1.5 yuan?
We said that there are two official positive factors, one refers to the auction of grain storage, in recent times, the auction of grain storage in the northeast region has increased significantly, originally everyone was worried that it was a precursor to the official attack on the corn market, did not expect that the grain storage directly pulled the bottom auction price up, basically and the current market price is flat, which is equivalent to directly giving corn the impetus to rise!
The second refers to the official corn protection policy and new import regulations, everyone knows that this year's official corn policy is "stable", but at the same time clearly put forward the support for the reasonable rise in corn prices, according to the news bulletin of the relevant departments last year, the current price still has a lot of room to rise, as for the new import regulations, in fact, in the reduction of the number of imports at the same time increased the import tariffs of a certain country, the trade war has not yet been won or lost! As for the current issue of eight or nine million tons of imported corn in the grain storage depot in the market. Xiaobian believes that before the new corn is listed, the number of auctions of imported corn is difficult to rise, with a weekly auction volume of more than 100,000 tons, the impact on the market is basically negligible!
As for the release of grain storage in North China and Shandong, it has been significantly reduced from the perspective of quantity, and has obviously improved from the price point of view, which further gives the main body of grain holding a strong reason, the market supply shortage, some deep processing enterprises are worried about the urgent inventory, so there is a large-scale rise at present! But in yesterday's article we also explained that at present, for deep processing enterprises, "three days of fishing and two days of drying nets" will be the norm in the short term, and it is expected that corn prices will quickly impact 1.5 / kg this month, there is basically no chance, according to the current increase, in the case of transportation conditions permitting, it is expected that Shandong will usher in another wave of arrivals!
As for the friends who have been bearish on the corn market in the past few days, they must have been punched in the face, especially the concluding statement that the future decline in corn prices has become a foregone conclusion! Although there are indeed some bearish factors in the corn market at present, most of them are short-term, the most obvious of which is the epidemic prevention and control, after all, the epidemic prevention and control has indeed led to the difficulty of some tidal grains to enter the market quickly, and now the weather is warming up faster, the tide grain is more difficult to store, and the demand for grass-roots shipments has increased, which is more strong in Henan!
Mention the price of corn, certainly can not avoid the starch, as we all know, from March, the inventory stock of starch enterprises has been high, the cost of enterprises has risen, coupled with the fluctuation of starch prices, and the downstream consumption has not yet fully recovered, some deep processing enterprises are still a wait-and-see situation, such enterprises have a commonality, that is, the company's inventory is still above the safety line!
However, it is certain that at present, the bosses who have grain in the hands of North China, Northeast China, Shandong and even the whole country, as long as the grain quality is no problem, have a higher psychological price for corn, and we said in early April that the current grain source has basically completed the transfer, the grass-roots grain source has basically bottomed out, plus this year's corn stock is small, most traders are absolutely "not to see the rabbit and not to scatter the eagle"! Not to mention that the international environment has also given some support to domestic corn prices, and the domestic corn gap this year may further expand, and the high point of corn prices may even break through last year's high point!
As for the problem of traders in North China and Shandong preparing for the preparation of wheat in Tengku, the most obvious performance is definitely the Henan region, but our view is still unchanged, this year's wheat is high and final, but at present it is a bit too early to say that the profit point must be higher than corn, for some small traders and even small traders, funds are the biggest trouble, but at present, most of the grain sources are large and medium-sized traders! The pressure on funds and venues is small, and even if there is a wave of concentration caused by a wave of tengku in May and June, it is difficult to maintain it for a long time, and even the scale is limited!
summary:
In the next week, enterprises in North China and Shandong are likely to adjust the purchase price according to their own arrivals, and the situation of falling in three days and rising in two days is easy to appear, but repeated price fluctuations are conducive to releasing the "quantitative pressure" of corn. As for the price in the northeast region, it is still stable and strong, the price adjustment of individual enterprises does not have guidance, and the epidemic situation and insufficient grain sources are the most important supporting force! Simply put, the price in April is most likely to be the game stage, and it is expected that the change will occur in the second half of the month, after all, this month is the spring ploughing month of corn. The official red line is to stabilize food security, and prices are guaranteed by policies!
For the price high point in the middle and late stages of corn prices, our view is that the high point of North China and Shandong region exceeded 1.5 is basically nailed down, and the concentration that should have appeared after the amount of concentration was suppressed, the price high point may be pulled down, as for the northeast region, the view remains unchanged, although the current balance in the northeast region is not much, but the price wants to reproduce last year's high Point Basically there is no hope, the probability is swinging between 1.3-1.4 yuan!
Remarks: The above analysis of the current stage of the corn and wheat market conditions is only a personal opinion. For reference only, not as an investment basis, different opinions welcome to leave a message to discuss. Investment is risky and trade needs to be cautious