I thought that the first two years after the outbreak of the epidemic would be difficult enough for the automotive industry, but who would have thought that 2022 would be even more difficult. Since the beginning of the year, a number of new energy vehicles have successively announced price increases, so that consumers who were ready to buy a new energy vehicle have become a prohibitive "waiting party".
The price of new energy vehicles has risen, including a number of new energy vehicle companies such as Tesla, BYD, GAC Aean, FAW-Volkswagen, Roewe, Ideal, Geometry, Weilai, etc., and the price increase ranges from 1,000 yuan to more than 20,000 yuan for specific models. On the one hand, in the face of the fierce rise in oil prices, on the other hand, the electric vehicle that has risen by more than 10,000 yuan, and now friends who want to buy a new car or want to change cars are also in a dilemma.
Why are new energy vehicles increasing in price? How long will this momentum continue?
In fact, for why the price of new energy models has been increased one after another, the major car companies have given a consistent answer, that is, "the price of raw materials in the upstream of the industrial chain has risen". The raw materials for the price increase of new energy models are mainly concentrated in core components such as batteries and chips, and the more prominent ones are the raw materials for new energy vehicle power batteries: lithium, cobalt, nickel and so on.
According to the survey results of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the current domestic power battery raw material prices have risen sharply, of which the average price of new energy vehicle battery grade lithium carbonate has changed from 53,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of last year to now breaking through the 500,000 yuan / ton mark, and the geometric multiple of the increase is obviously contrary to the national new energy vehicle development strategy.
Previously, the new energy passenger vehicles expected by the Association at the beginning of the year to reach 5.5 million in 2022, in today's environment, we have to rethink, can the target of 5.5 million vehicles be easily achieved? It is very obvious that the soaring price of important raw materials for new energy vehicles is out of the law of market development, and it cannot be simply attributed to the contradiction between supply and demand, which belongs to the irrational price increase of the market.
In addition, a major factor restricting the development of new energy vehicles at present is the guarantee of resources such as cobalt, so major new energy vehicle companies have the idea of developing lithium iron phosphate, and the development of new energy passenger vehicles since last year is mainly concentrated in the huge market demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries.
The demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased, and the prices of raw materials such as cobalt and nickel have also risen by different margins, and the price of cobalt has risen from less than 300,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of last year to more than 560,000 yuan / ton, nearly doubling the growth rate. Data show that at the beginning of this year, compared with the same period last year, the price of some raw materials rose nearly 10 times. Let's take a pure electric vehicle with a battery capacity of 70 kWh, and the cost of battery raw materials alone has risen by nearly 10,000 yuan.
According to Tesla China's official website, the current price of Tesla Model 3 high-performance version has been adjusted to 367,900 yuan, up 18,000 yuan from 349,900 yuan on March 10, and the price of Model Y long-endurance and high-performance version is 375,900 yuan and 417,900 yuan, respectively, up 18,000 yuan and 20,000 yuan from March 10, respectively.
The price increase of new energy vehicles is difficult to stop the heat Under the background of the epidemic, I can't help myself
However, facts have proved that even if the price of new energy vehicles rises under the impact of the epidemic, it is difficult to stop consumers' enthusiasm for buying. At the beginning of this year, domestic new energy vehicle sales still have the high-speed growth momentum of the same period last year. According to the data of the Association, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 455,000 units in March this year, an increase of 122.4% year-on-year.
Judging from the sales volume in the first three months of this year, the domestic consumer market is full of enthusiasm for new energy vehicles. In the first quarter of this year, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.19 million units, an increase of 145.4% year-on-year. At the same time, sales of pure electric vehicles reached 371,000 units in March this year, an increase of 116.8% year-on-year, and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 84,000 units, an increase of 151.3% year-on-year.
In the first quarter of this year, the cumulative sales of pure electric vehicles reached 954,000 units, an increase of 133.3% year-on-year, and the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 235,000 units, an increase of 211.2% year-on-year. It can be seen that although plug-in hybrid vehicles have a lot of increases, pure electric vehicles account for more than 80% of the overall sales, and are still the main force of the overall growth of new energy vehicles.
There is no doubt that the heat of production and sales in the first quarter of this year has not decreased, but the price increase is still the biggest topic of new energy vehicles since the beginning of the year. Last month, Wuling Hongguang MINI surpassed Tesla to jump to the top of the list again, with its monthly sales exceeding 40,000 vehicles, an increase of nearly 20% year-on-year. It can be seen that in the new energy market, independent brands still occupy an absolute advantage, and the sales lead are mostly micro scooters, while tesla, BYD and other hybrid models are still leading the mainstream passenger car market.
Of course, these are just individual cases, and there are more car companies that are not very good in the past. With the increasing intensification of market competition, coupled with uncontrollable factors such as repeated epidemics and oil price changes, some models that have achieved good results have also begun to make difficulties. Chip shortages have been going on for nearly two years, and now the rapid rise in the price of battery raw materials has not been alleviated, and the accumulated long-term pressure has forced car companies to raise product prices.
Excluding the pressure of car company transformation, more is that consumers are gradually panicking about the purchase of new energy vehicles. Will the price increase continue? How long will the price increase last? Is the price increase getting bigger and bigger? Are the deliveries of vehicles longer and longer without ordering? These problems have become the concerns of many consumers about new energy vehicles.
However, the level of terminal prices for people who just need it is not a question of whether to buy or not, but more to buy whose car is more appropriate. The second quarter of this year is coming, which is the traditional off-season of the automotive industry, how can car companies break the situation? Who can stand out in the face of adversity? Looking for a breakthrough? Otherwise, the tide of price increases will intensify, which will affect the development of China's new energy automobile industry in the long run.
Electric EV: Hidden problems in the new energy vehicle industry chain
Referring to the sales of 3.5 million new energy vehicles in 2021 last year, it will exceed 5.5 million sales of new energy vehicles in 2022, at least 157.7% will be able to achieve the target, and the impact of the market will inevitably be alleviated, but this is not a problem that can be solved in a short period of time.
In the next few years, the penetration rate of electric vehicles will increase significantly, and the electric vehicle market will also be close to the inflection point and flashpoint. Challenges such as the spread of the epidemic, the price increase of raw materials, and the shortage of chips still exist in a certain period of time, and the positive situation of new energy vehicles today is not only driven by policies. After the subsidy for new energy models has completely declined, the competition between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles will completely become the competition of product strength. As for where the future holds, we'll see.