Last week, I visited Baidu Apollo Park (the world's largest test base for autonomous driving and vehicle-road collaboration applications) in Yizhuang and found a small trick to take pictures and look thin. It is after being pointed at by the camera sister's lens, collecting the stomach in time, keeping it for three seconds, and the photos that come out are set off by Liu Huafang next to it, and it looks thin.
None of the above matters.
What is really important is that through this visit and many experiences before me, I feel that the autonomous driving industry has clearly entered a period of accelerated development, and the path that was expected to be taken in 5-10 years may now be enough for two or three years.
In short, there are the following gratifying changes that have exceeded my expectations.
First, the experience of normalization The time for calling a car is significantly shortened
In October 2020, as one of the first true Volkswagen users, I experienced self-driving cars for the first time in Yizhuang. The experience waited more than half an hour before answering, and there was a scheduling failure in the middle. At that time, only a small number of Baidu's vehicles were on the road in Yizhuang, Beijing, and when self-driving cars drove through residential areas, they always triggered crowds of onlookers.
At the beginning of 2022, I experienced self-driving cars for the Nth time, almost realized the second order, and there is a kind of response pleasure called Didi Chauffeur. At this time, in addition to Baidu's Apollo, Xiaoma Zhixing's self-driving cars have also been on the road, and both sides have significantly increased the number of vehicles put on the road.
For related details, you can refer to the articles I wrote before, such as "On the open social road of Yizhuang, experience Baidu self-driving cars" and "Baidu Apollo from 0 to 1, And Pony Zhixing from 1 to N".
Last month, Wei Dong, vice president and chief safety operation officer of Baidu Intelligent Driving Business Group, introduced that after the release of the Radish Run brand, in the six months of Yizhuang manned test demonstration operation, the number of vehicles, site density, and order density increased by more than 50%, and the average daily order peak of bicycles reached 28 (this data even exceeded the average daily order volume of most Didi drivers).
In just two years, Yizhuang residents like me have become the norm to experience self-driving cars, which cannot but be said to be a miracle, and science fiction novels dare not write like this. The reason for the significantly shorter ride-hailing time is that the number of cars on the road has increased, and it has increased a lot. Baidu Encyclopedia's relevant information shows that more than 300 autonomous driving test vehicles are equipped in Apollo Park alone.
Second, the cost is greatly reduced The future of civil automatic driving can be expected
Long ago, computers and mobile phones were institutional supplies, which were unattainable for individuals. In recent decades, 3C home appliances such as computers, mobile phones, color TVs, refrigerators, and washing machines have become popular, one is because of practicality, and the other is because the price has decreased.
In about 2017, a Baidu self-driving car cost more than a million. Among them, the car does not have much money, about two or three hundred thousand, the real expensive is the roof of the Power deng lidar, the unit price of up to 500,000 yuan, the on-board brain system must be about 200,000, plus other miscellaneous radar, sensors, the cost is naturally not cheap.
In the years since, with the upgrading of technology, the increase in automobile production, the application of domestic radar and other components, the comprehensive cost of autonomous vehicles has plummeted.
This time to Baidu Apollo Park to visit, the staff told us that the fifth generation of Apollo models, has been the comprehensive cost of about 480,000 yuan.
480,000 yuan, that is, the price of a BMW 5 Series or Mercedes-Benz E, the domestic middle class should be able to accept such a price. I and the two self-media friends who came to visit together said that if the policy allows in the future, civil automatic driving can be expected in the short term, and I will definitely start one.
Third, the policy is becoming more and more friendly The main driver's seat unmanned vehicle may be on the road in the near future
Over the past few years, I have exchanged topics with many people in the industry about "why is it difficult to popularize autonomous driving", and many people believe that now that the technology is basically mature, conservative policies are the biggest factor restricting the development of the industry.
However, this perception is changing, and the opportunity for change is the Yizhuang area of Beijing.
At the beginning of 2018, Beijing issued a temporary number plate for self-driving test tests to Baidu, and five Baidu Apollo self-driving cars can conduct public road tests on open roads around Yizhuang. At that time, careful Yizhuang residents noticed that on several main roads in Yizhuang, such as Rongjing West Street and Ronghua Middle Road, there were eye-catching "automatic driving test road" road signs.
On October 10, 2020, with the support of Yizhuang policy, Baidu's autonomous driving service was fully opened in Beijing, and users did not need to make an appointment, and directly placed an order to test ride robotaxi service for free. I said at the time that the full opening of Baidu's autonomous driving is a landmark event and a milestone event in the autonomous driving industry that can go down in history.
On November 25, 2021, the first pilot commercialization of autonomous driving travel services in China was "settled" in Beijing Yizhuang Economic Development Zone, and citizens can place orders through mobile phone APP to ride in Beijing Economic Development Zone. Baidu and Xiaoma Zhixing are among the first companies to be allowed to carry out commercial pilot services.
In the past few years, favorable policies in Yizhuang have been frequent, which has greatly catalyzed the development of the autonomous driving industry.
As we all know, due to policy restrictions, there was also a safety officer sitting in the driver's seat of the self-driving taxi (so our relevant expression in this article is automatic driving, not driverless), although the safety officer does not perform any operations throughout the process. In accordance with the direction of policy guidance, the future safety officer will first move to the passenger seat, and then to the rear seat until withdrawing from the car.
According to the policy dynamics in recent years, I expect that the main driver of self-driving cars without safety officers will appear on the roads of Yizhuang in the near future, and we can look forward to it.
Fourth, the acceleration of commercialization is undergoing market tests
If commercial operations cannot be carried out, if they cannot withstand the test of the market, no matter how autonomous driving develops, it will be a flower in the greenhouse.
After experiencing Apollo's self-driving car for the first time in 2020, I estimated that it would be at least three to five years before I started operating for a fee. Unexpectedly, just one year later, Baidu and Xiaoma Zhixing have opened commercial operations, and consumers can pay to use autonomous vehicles.
Up to now, Baidu Radish Run has begun to commercialize paid operation services in Beijing, Chongqing and Yangquan, and has taken the lead in launching the digital RMB payment function in Beijing Yizhuang.
Just this past weekend, Xiaoma Zhixing announced that it won the bid for the 2022 taxi capacity index in Nansha District, Guangzhou, and Xiaoma Zhixing was allowed to invest 100 self-driving vehicles in Nansha, Guangzhou to provide taxi services. It is expected that from May, Xiaoma Zhixing will start charging operations in the entire area of Nansha in 800 square kilometers.
So, will autonomous driving be competitive with traditional ride-hailing vehicles or taxis? From the cost point of view, after the completely unmanned operation in the future, the cost of drivers alone can save more than 100,000 to 200,000 yuan per year.
From the perspective of income, Baidu and Xiaoma Zhixing are currently relatively close to the people, because these two companies have adopted the usual subsidy methods in the Internet industry and are not referenced. In the future, after a certain scale and volume, the cost should be not much different from the traditional online ride-hailing express and taxi, or slightly higher.
From the perspective of experience, Baidu and Xiaoma Zhixing's self-driving cars, whether from the perspective of safety or comfort, have reached the level of chauffeur driving. I am a veteran user of Didi Li Orange Car and Shenzhou Car, which is the conclusion I have reached after many comparisons.
Baidu and Xiaoma, as well as Meituan and Didi, which are expected to be on the road in the future, full competition from all parties will help take another big step forward on the road to the commercialization of autonomous driving.
Written in the end: In the past few days, the epidemic situation in various places has spread, and doing a good job in the promotion and landing of autonomous vehicles will be of great help to the prevention and control of the epidemic.